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JJ: set on flop

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appleeeee
Joined: 28.12.2011

PokerStars Hand #137940868855: Holdem No Limit ($0.05/$0.10 USD) - 2015/07/12 18:18:45 EET [2015/07/12 11:18:45 ET]
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5 players (stacks):
SB ($10)
BB ($10)
MP ($10)
CO ($10)
Hero (BTN) ($19.03)
Blinds: $0.05/$0.1

Pre-flop: ($0.15, 5 players) Hero is BTN: J:s, J:d
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.2, SB folds, BB calls $0.1

Flop: J:h, A:h, 9:h ($0.45, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.39, BB raises to $1.3, Hero raises to $10, BB folds

Final Pot: $3.05

I think that push is over play here. He will call only with fl or set and nearly never with AQ-AT. So as for me we must gives raise against Ax with fl-dr.
Is it right ?


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17 replies
mattyvx
Joined: 15.04.2015

honestly vs the most passive players it's nearly a fold for hero OTF *awaits the barrage of comments about top of range etc* - but really most players do not have a bluff raising raise here and I don't think he's doing it with AxQh that he didn't 3bet for example or enough of the time with QsKh type hands

Yes I agree think shoving is a mistake, i don't think I want a 3betting range atall on this flop and if villian is agressive can call but in general make your decision on the turn for the river.

I prefer a smaller betsize OTF, usually i'm betting 1/3 pot or something on monoboards and larger OTT with full range


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I think it is ok played:

MP2 45.38% 99, KhQh, KhTh, QhTh, Kh8h, Qh8h, Th8h, Kh7h, 8h7h, 7h6h, 6h5h, 5h4h, AJo, KhJd, KhJs, KhJc, KhTd, KhTs, KhTc
MP3 54.62% JdJs


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VaskataBuci
Joined: 08.08.2011

Maybe normal size 3bet on flop would work better. Something like 3,90. Thus he will have hard time folding :heart:. And then on the turn it is easier push.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I think it is better to end it all on flop with 2 cards to come while we are ahead.


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Tinsley15
Joined: 18.07.2013

would call otf, evaluate turn. I think if we shove otf and even 3bet we are losing value


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mattyvx
Joined: 15.04.2015

i think overall at this stake it will be -EV without reads to play back at passive opponents (summarizing population read) when they raise this texture - (or any texture for that matter) but especially this one

this guy does seems reggish with a semi decent x/r stat & aggression factor so i guess he can have a bluff x/r range here or decides to play back with some spazes at our large cbet but meh

the biggest adjustment on the hand especially vs the regs i would make is to reduce your cbet size on mono boards, your overall range doesn't want to start narrowing his & building a big pot and we want to bluff cheap - personally I would have taken a note on you the sizing=strength on mono after this hand and played back at a smaller size next time


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

And what if we bet all our range that way on mono boards?


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appleeeee
Joined: 28.12.2011

How much it will be better give CB here ? I means on the Flop ?


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Bet 2/3 with all your cbetting range.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

As a general rule, when flopping a set 100bb deep, the goal is to get all the money into the middle. This statement is not about tactics, it is about strategy. You don't play pairs to play small pots when you hit.


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mattyvx
Joined: 15.04.2015

Originally posted by nitrol
And what if we bet all our range that way on mono boards?

Then you are likely investing more than is needed, normally these boards are so dry or, so difficult for your opponent to continue with marginal hands you don't need any bigger betsizing than half pot to generate fold equity and the majority of our range cannot support a larger sizing

What would your cbet size be on A82r? or K63r? Check your cbet success rate on mono boards, Axx, Kxx & paired boards compared to more connected boards like 89x or QTx, you will likely find it's higher therefore we can cbet with a wider range using a smaller sizing

the topic was briefly discussed in a video I watched today from Galvin Bay (PS coach)

around 32mins in table 4 AA on mono with the As

p.s. it's 500nl but it still applies, if you want to be exploitative vs villians who aren't thinking about betsizing then using a bigger sizing for value is even better but, for bluffs a smaller size will likely be as effective and you invest less when called


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

P.S. definately NL500 advices not always apply... :)


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mattyvx
Joined: 15.04.2015

check you DB - it applies i am using fine at 10nl & 25nl

another great PS post here showing high FE on mono boards

https://forums.pokerstrategy.com/forum/thread.php?threadid=295720

ultimately up to you, if your game plan is working then cool but just some other ideas


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Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

yeah i agree with matty, though i would also exploitatively bet large here. vs raise its an annoying spot, i guess trying to get the money in asap can't be a huge mistake and will save you from doing mistakes in later streets


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Mono- boards are scary for the opponnets, so we have enough FE there, imo.


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Yes let's try blow him off all his bluffs and semi bluffs and run head first into the hard to find value part of his range.

Also the idea he has a significant portion of sets here is just wrong. AA most like 3bets us, there can't be JJ so that leaves 99.
Some two pairs depending on if he would call a9 or j9, plus a lot of time he gets it in he has a flush which our equity is bad against or a straight draw with the flush which we don't do great against.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

I agree. If he is the kind of guy who would play all sooooted and x/r for value with 2 pair+ (except AA) on the flop, then our equity is pretty much exactly 50%. No point in re-raising on the flop. He'd need to semi-bluff plenty (with K♥:Q♣: and the like) for a re-raise to be the right option. Don't think that that happens.

Thus if the money goes in because we reraise, I'd say it is is a slight loser. If it goes in because he keeps betting, then it is probably a winner (because keep his worse hands in his range).


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