(Original thread: https://forums.pokerstrategy.com/forum/thread.php?postid=2094489#post2094489)
WhiteWalker posted this interesting hand earlier to our Hand discussions section:
Blinds: $0.50/$1.00
SB ($100.00) 100bb
BB ($109.20) 109bb (Hero) A♦ A♣ T♠ 3♦
UTG ($100.00) 100bb
MP ($105.20) 105bb (Villain) (VPIP: 54.55, PFR: 30.68, 3Bet Preflop: 2.86, Hands: 89)
CO ($100.00) 100bb
BTN ($100.00) 100bb
($1.50, 6 players)
UTG folds, MP bets $3.00, CO folds, BTN calls $3.00, SB folds, BB raises to $12.40, MP calls $9.40, BTN calls $9.40
($37.70, 3 players) 6♥ 9♠ 3♥
BB bets $24.20, MP raises to $92.80, BTN folds
Genius play or member of Spewityville?
Let's rock 'n roll! We need to give our opponent a raise range. We can never know what these guys are thinking, but let's assume he raises here with following range:
Any flush draw
Any pair+OESD
Any wrap
Any 2 pairs or better
Equilab
If we put that range to Equilab and check our equity on that board, it gives us slightly over 52%. In that light, as we are ahead of his range we can easily bet-call the flop.
PokerJuice
We give opponent preflop range of RFI30, and exclude Aces (as he didn't 4bet). With the same flop range PokerJuice gives us 38% equity.
The answer is in preflop range definition. This is a common problem when using Equilab in postflop calculations, as it assumes that preflop range is 100%. Unless you specify it in yourself. As in numbers, Equilab thinks that opponent has 270725 hand combinations in his range on the flop. PokerJuice thinks that he has 19447. So as PokerJuice narrows down some of the crappy hands in preflop, Equilab takes all hands (like 2224hh) in to account.
But wait, we are not done yet!
PokerJuice gives us even more information: flop range is 48% of his preflop range. Which means that opponent will raise us here half of the times. To make life easier, let's assume even more. Let's assume that opponent either raises with the range we have defined, or folds. Should we cbet-call or not?
52% of the times opponent fold and hero wins 37,70.
48% of the times opponent shoves and hero's EV is -7,17.
Total EV is +16,1.
So with all these assumptions the conclusion is that bet-call is fine on the flop. Of course, in Steven Seagal movie Under the Siege 2 we learned this:
Spoiler
But as poker is the game of imperfect information, we have to make assumptions and estimations. In this hand, with these estimations, the result is this. But you can use PokerJuice to see how the situation might change if opponent's preflop range goes tighter or wider? If there flop is rainbow? If the 9s would be Ts? And so on... Have fun!
