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Is this straight draw +EV vs UTG's range?

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7 handed. UTG is probably a good, solid player.
hero Qc 7c on BT with 60 big blinds
UTG opens 3 bb, hero calls, blinds fold
flop 6c 8s 9d (pot is 7.5bb)
UTG bets 5 bb

What should I do here? There is now 12.5 blinds in the pot and I have 57 behind.

If UTG has any sizeable pocket pair I'm in rough shape as only a few let my overcard play.
- 66 88 99 are sets: ~25% ev
- 77 has me drawing to a chop or a win if my overcard hits ~28% ev
- TT gives me 2 less outs to a straight ~34% ev
- I have 11 outs to JJ ~42% ev (decent)
- QQ+ makes my overcard unwinnable ~31% ev

If I raise I'm pretty pot commited to my -ev.
If I call it might be difficult to get paid off if I turn the straight as it's a 1 card.

Now that I've played the hand preflop, should I be folding the flop?
Is there a way that I can extract value by proceeding on this pretty decent board for me?


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4 replies
Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Not sure on with limit this is, but this is a hand. So I moved it to the hand discussion board.

Pre-flop is a clear fold against a solid player from UTG. He will open a tight range most of the time and with Q7s you have only flush potential, because if you hit top pair it’s likely you’re dominated.

As played it makes not to much sense I think to change you’re hand in to a bluff and I would call 1 street and her-evaluate the turn. If you fold the flop you shouldn’t play the hand in the first place.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

First fill your stack to 100 BB.
Second, calling your hand vs a good solid reg will lead you to lose money as his range is crushing you.
Third, you should call on flop. Raise is an overplay, fold is ridiculous.


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Off course we don’t know if this is a live of online cash game table.
Than it’s more comment to play with 60bb most likely.


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Fold pre, as played call flop and fold when not improve, you got the backdoor fd too.


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