[Highlight] - We have to think the range through

Originally posted by WilliamBoo
Hi! This villain doesn't fold a lot against cbets and tends to raise them. I did a x/r because a i want him to fold instead of me in an air vs air situation. What do you think?

Hi, all...
In this spot, OOP, vs a person who doesn't fold much, I'm holding my bluffs for later streets.
Although we have outs, some of them are poisoned. There are a lot of cards we're going to hate OTT -- those that give us a straight, but give him a better one (if he doesn't have it already)
OTT there are a lot of scare-cards, which might make our bluff profitable.

I'm not personally one to check/raise then fold, so my vote is for x/c, and play the turn.
I'm x/f the turn unless I get something worth playing.

I'm not against x/f OTF either.

Equilab gives you this vs double2's estimated range:

Board: T♦9♠8♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP3    43.32%  36.09%   7.23% { AcJd }
BU     56.68%  49.45%   7.23% { QQ-77, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, AJo+, KQo }

Enough for a call perhaps, but maybe not OOP

Cheers,
VS

x/r bluff on very drawy board ....
In this spot you should have top set or nut straight, or straight flush draw because this is what we represent

For me standard xc @ flop, avoid raises, sometimes we are behind, and our hand could improve.

On blank turn is easy xc again. On a diamond turn i would xc again. I will fold Kx, i have doubts with 6x but i would call, and on Jx i will fold.

Wow thanks for this!

Yeah, i think i have to check first that range impact and THEN focus on tendencies.
I'm having trouble knowing when to let go my equity share.

So, in this case is it a x/f?
What if villain range was wider? i would hate to fold my semibluff type of hands againts his semibluffs.

Originally posted by WilliamBoo
Wow thanks for this!

Yeah, i think i have to check first that range impact and THEN focus on tendencies.
I'm having trouble knowing when to let go my equity share.

So, in this case is it a x/f?
What if villain range was wider? i would hate to fold my semibluff type of hands againts his semibluffs.

I think x/f AJ is here decent, specially if we do not have a diamond. If ranges were wider, say SB vs BB there is no way we should x/folding this situation. Both players ranges matter, this is a pretty basic but very important concept. The same hand on the same board (with the same SPR) is not "worth" the same in every ocasion.

Ok, i started to put some numbers and even with the strong calling range you gave villain, he has a lot of draws which can be raising my cbet as a semibluff. Most of his Aces highs and no made hands consist of gutshots and OESD. Only a 32.6% is TP+ and i have 43% equity. Now i'm considering that is very weak to be x/folding there. And given that 54% of his range is made of draws, i can see my cbet being raised a lot here. So i think b/f is awful. I don't want to be x/calling oop with less 50% equity to spew later either. So my first x/r intention doesn't seem so bad. What about cbetting and going all in if he raises? (if he only calls, i think his range is face up towards mid strength value hands only).

What do you think? Sorry for my english!

I think bet/shoving is a very bad idea, since we are very very crushed against villain stack off range (which will contain mostly QJ, 9dXd, KdQd, sets). He would have to be folding to a shove an insane % of the time.

Regarding the check/raise or check/call. I definitely think that this is a situation where we should be checking a lot on the flop. As for what to do when we do face a bet i think it's already a headache situation. I think against villain sizing you can definitely call once with AJ if you want (but it's marginal and therefore a check/fold is okay, even if you find some semi-bluffs in villain's range). I don't like the check/raise option for the reasons I mentioned earlier, I don't think villain is folding much and we will face an ugly decision on the turn.

QQ,JJ,TT,99,88,77,AK,AQ,AJ,ATs,KQ,KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s

Villain shoud fold all AQ, AK, KQ, KJs, 77 (without fd), which should be 40-50 combos depends what he is really betting and folding. Defending 88-TT (9 combos) for sure, 9Ts, 89s (4 combos) (if he even has them in preflop range, since many players will fold or 3bet it), JQs (4 combos) (similarly might not even have it), JJ (6 combos), QQ (6 combos) (might 3bet it), AJ (16 combos) (might 3bet it or fold as most players do). So defend would be 35-50 depending how he plays. Since there should be around 50% Fe with a cr in average, and AJ has decent equity, I think it is ok to cr or cc or cbet flop.

next hand mach better