Skip to forum
Notifications
Clear all

AK vs light cold 4-bet

9 Posts
6 Users
0 Reactions
589 Views
Lathdari
Joined: 07.10.2014

BB's cold 4-bet stat (25% based on 4 hands) doesn't tell us much, but 3B 8% suggests his 4B range won't be too tight. Bet size is weird. I think there's enough money in the pot that we can just call and hope to hit an A or K. Anything to be said for 5-bet here?

Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players

CO: $8.65 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 14, 3B: 2, AF: 1.1, Hands: 163
BTN: $10.15 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 14, 3B: 6, AF: 2.2, Hands: 218
SB: $2.83 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 12, 3B: 3, AF: 4.4, Hands: 220
BB: $10.00 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 14, 3B: 8, AF: 1.8, Hands: 155
UTG: $10.92 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 11, 3B: 0, AF: 1.7, Hands: 64
Hero (UTG+1): $10.00 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 14, 3B: 7, AF: 3.0, Hands: 7031
MP: $10.00 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 8, 3B: 4, AF: 0.9, Hands: 226

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG+1 with A :heart: K :club:
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, BTN raises to $0.80, 1 fold, BB raises to $1.30, Hero calls $1, 1 fold

Flop: ($3.45) 8 :heart: 3 :spade: J :spade: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($3.45) T :diamond: (2 players)
BB bets $2.17, Hero folds

Final Pot: $3.45
BB wins $3.29
(Rake: $0.16)


Reply
Quote
8 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I think AKo is usually behind his 4betting range but not much. Gambling is always nice, so push all-in pre flop =)) Folding pre might be better tho. I wouldn't call.


Reply
Quote
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Both villains seem active preflop, so you can raise.


Reply
Quote
Lathdari
Joined: 07.10.2014

Nitrol, when you say we can raise, do you mean shove or raise to, say, $3.50? Shoving seems bad because we're putting in $9.70 to win a $2.40 pot, we won't fold both villains often enough to make that profitable and likely their calling ranges will be {KK+} so we don't get much pot equity. If we bet $3.50 we put in $3.20 to win $2.40, which is more reasonable, but there's scarcely a hand which will call. {KK+} shoves and we fold, other hands fold to our 5-bet. Now, if both Villains have a range {TT+, AK}, they have 27 folding combos and 6 shoving combos, so each Villain has an 82% chance to fold and the chance of both Villains folding is 67% (ignoring the fact that they're not independent variables). That makes the bet EV +$0.55, but it seems odd that we're effectively treating a strong hand as a bluff (although admittedly the bluff's profitability relies on the card elimination from having this specific hand).

By calling I invest $1 to win potentially $2.40. Let's assume I always lose if there's no A or K on the flop. If there is an A or K I sometimes end up caught by a better hand, but also sometimes (and more often) I can get paid by worse hands (in either case I'll x/c). Let's say on average I make one more dollar when an A or K hits the flop. I've got 6 outs with 3 cards, so I hit around 36% of the time. So I calculate my EV as +$0.58. It's a pretty rough and ready calculation, so my conclusion is that call and raise are about the same.

Why are you preferring raise here? Is it because we're afraid of being squeezed by BTN?


Reply
Quote
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

No, we are not afraid. I think AK is too strong to fold and I like to have initiative.
I prefer raising than shoving.


Reply
Quote
Tinsley15
Joined: 18.07.2013

Nitrol what stakes do u play? And do u play at the moment and where?


Reply
Quote
mkjmkjmkj
Joined: 05.02.2012

easy fold in my opinion

i dont think you make them fold AK and QQ by raising


Reply
Quote
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I play nl 10 - nl 25 and yes, I play every day.


Reply
Quote
Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

In this hand for me preflop raising is better than calling, but folding is better than raising. I usually see a monster ranges when they act like that. As played, I don't see good hands checking the flop (overpairs are cbetting) so we might try to take the pot with betting (despite the fact that we might have the best hand vs something like AQ, KQ). He might have something like mid pairs which is folding on the flop/turn. This turn card hits that range, so I would probably just check back if he calls me on the flop and fold if he bets the river. As played, when we decided to check back the flop, I think we might call one bet, but not sure.


Reply
Quote