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Villain overbets river after possible FD completes

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Lathdari
Joined: 07.10.2014

PF standard. Flop is innocuous so I'm happy to slow-play. Turn is dangerous and in retrospect I should have bet bigger here. On the river I think b/f just ends up paying flushes, whereas x/c should catch plenty of Jx, maybe some PPs, maybe bluff from KQ. But villain's river bet is large: does that indicate a flush (or FH)?

Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players

BTN: $17.75 - VPIP: 9, PFR: 7, 3B: 7, AF: 0.0, Hands: 58
Hero (SB): $12.94 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 14, 3B: 7, AF: 3.1, Hands: 6693
BB: $10.40 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 16, 3B: 10, AF: 7.0, Hands: 73
UTG: $6.78 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 4, 3B: 0, AF: 3.0, Hands: 26
UTG+1: $11.40 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 15, 3B: 5, AF: 4.0, Hands: 74
MP1: $11.19 - VPIP: 11, PFR: 9, 3B: 7, AF: 0.0, Hands: 44
MP2: $12.73 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 4, 3B: 3, AF: 1.1, Hands: 152
CO: $8.38 - VPIP: 10, PFR: 9, 3B: 0, AF: 1.7, Hands: 116

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with A :spade: T :spade:
UTG calls $0.10, 5 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.90) T :heart: T :club: 4 :diamond: (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

Turn: ($0.90) J :club: (2 players)
Hero bets $0.57, UTG calls $0.57

River: ($2.04) 5 :club: (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $2.10, Hero ??


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13 replies
Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

You should've bet on the flop, he limped pre so we can assume he's calling station. Call otr, lots of worse Tx betting (doesn't matter anyway, it would have gone either way if you had betted otf)


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Worse T are betting flop too?


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I don't think it makes much sense to bet over pot with a flush on the river when the board is paired but I guess he could do that with some of his nut flushes


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Lathdari
Joined: 07.10.2014

River: ($2.04) 5 :club: (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $2.10, Hero calls $2.10

Final Pot: $6.24
Hero mucks A :spade: T :spade:
UTG shows A :club: 6 :club:
UTG wins $5.96
(Rake: $0.28)


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Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

Originally posted by Lathdari
River: ($2.04) 5 :club: (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $2.10, Hero calls $2.10

Final Pot: $6.24
Hero mucks A :spade: T :spade:
UTG shows A :club: 6 :club:
UTG wins $5.96
(Rake: $0.28)

You don't need to show the result, it doesn't matter anyway. Do not adjust your whole play because of a single spot.


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Lathdari
Joined: 07.10.2014

I think it's interesting for people to see though.


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KingKlaas
Joined: 13.12.2008

Bet flop here to get value vs fish.
As played i would have made a kind of blockbet on the river from 40% of the pot.
And fold to a raise...


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010
FlyingDutchm1n
Joined: 21.08.2012

If fish expects you to Cbet the flop, then by all means DO! : ) People make the mistake here often to Cbet AJ on a TTx board but once they hit trips, don't cbet because the board is "innocuous". You should be building a pot, that is why you should start at the flop. Don't worry about people folding here they don't necessarily think your Cbet must mean trips because it generally shouldn't. Now you got yourself into a difficult spot on river, which you could have avoided by starting on the flop. Villain here got their hand improved to a flushdraw for free meaning they now got a 15% equity boost for free.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I agree with the fold on river. I am more inclined to call smaller bets on river.


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Lathdari
Joined: 07.10.2014

That's what I suspected. I'm somewhat convinced by FrozenElf's argument that at NL10 large river bets are rarely bluffs.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

This is true and you should take it into consideration.


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FlyingDutchm1n
Joined: 21.08.2012

Large river bets signify a polarized range...with hardly any bluffs in there though :f_biggrin:


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