You should fold if you think he has 77/22. You lose there.
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Originally posted by nitrol
If 77/22 is his most likely holding on turn we should fold as we do not beat anything more...
No, 77/22 is more likely than, say, J3o - or anything. That makes them the most likely holdings. That is, the 77/22 are individually the most likely hands. Even if they are the most likely holding all together, we shouldn't automatically fold on turn. The question is whether they sum up to 75%+ of his holdings. I believe that they do not.
(Again there is the phenomenon of "putting an opponent on a hand" (the most likely) and then make the "most likely" mean 100% of his range-> we don't beat anything.)
Nitrol, I know that you don't mean that, but sometimes your one-liners seem to be not that well thought over. Sorry for bluntness.
The only way your thoughts in this hand can be accurate is if the villain is a 6/2 nit.
You are seeing monsters under the bed - this is NL25 short hand and you raise 55 UTG - probably puts your overall VPIP over thirty. You turned your desire not to resolve the opponents hand range on the flop down to monsters into a read on the turn that the villain could only possibly have a monster.
The only correct options in this hand were to shove the flop or bluff-catch to the river, especially after you filled up. The decision to call-call-fold was probably the most -EV option of all possible decisions in this hand.
Yohan, the others came to a conclusion that villain will not do this with overpairs. Not so many draws possible. So if they think that he does this with sets only, then it is a fold.
I know that it is a mistake to try and put him on a single hand.
Originally posted by nitrol
Yohan, the others came to a conclusion that villain will not do this with overpairs. Not so many draws possible. So if they think that he does this with sets only, then it is a fold.
I know that it is a mistake to try and put him on a single hand.
The majority (at least four) say it is a snap call. The undecided (up until now), besides me is you. Then there is OP that folds already on turn. Edit: Actually six posters say snap call.
Originally posted by nitrol
If 77/22 is his most likely holding on turn we should fold as we do not beat anything more...
This is your reply to my post saying that 77/22 are hands that best fit the action. You translate it into us not beating anything. Please spend at least some time going through the posts you reply to before you reply - even if you are in a hurry to post as many replies as possible.
Originally posted by YohanN7
But I still agree that his most likely holding is 77/22. A 77/22 might be many times more likely than each of the overpairs and draws.
I don't want to be rude but will quote a part of your post from yesterday.
If you do not remember what you have written, it is not me to blame...
I
My answer was to this.
You still fail to read posts thoroughly. The post says that 7♣:7♥: is much more likely than K♠:K♥:, and similarly for the rest of the other overpairs and draws. This is the meaning of the word each.
"Most likely holding is 77/22" means that 77/22 has a probability of p, whereas 88 pas a probability q with q < p. It blatantly does not mean (necessarily) that p > 0.5. And there is no way you can seriously make it mean p = 1.
What about "the others"? Still claim they came to the conclusion that villain does not do this with overpairs?
If you think you can spot blatant self-contradiction in my posts (entirely possible), then please please, make sure you understand my post first before you reply. It is three times this thread now where you haven't done your homework.
Do not bla-bla. I clearly wrote my opinion. If you do not agree- it is your right.
Do not fall into the hole of telling me what I can or should do.
Any other post is offtopic spam.
Nitrol, I don't bla bla bla.
I am telling you the truth, and politely so. Your posts in this thread are confused. You can't handle that and fall yourself (again) into the trap of you believing "being able to write anything (and as often as you possibly can) because you are "grown up" and are formally allowed to post because this is (supposedly) a free world".
As for writing your "opinion", you haven't stated an opinion or anything that could count as a thought of your own. You have been picking on my posts trying to find errors. You did (and again do) that in a sloppy and arrogant way. Are you really dumb enough to think that you can dismiss any other post from as off-topic spam?
Again, do you stand behind your posts in this thread? No misunderstanding on your part? No errors? No misinterpretations (intended or not)? I need to know if you should be taken seriously in the future.
