JJ in Hijack v SB - facing pot-sized donk on River

I think at NL2 river pot size donk is a bluff fairly often. Of course villain will have trips and full houses in his range also. You have to be right only 33% of the time so I guess calling would be fine.

I do not agree here. on micros xc/xc/donk pot is strong line.
You played it ok.

I have to kind of change my opinion here. I filtered out this particular situation and it looks like they had fairly strong hands when they played xc-xc-donk. Smaller river donks and pot size bets in other situations are bluffs but this line looks strong.

I think that the line itself is strong, no matter the size. We are talking about micros here.

Players on NL2 are playing according to their hand strength. This particular line seems like nuts for 99 % of the time. You don't have a call here.

Originally posted by nitrol
I think that the line itself is strong, no matter the size. We are talking about micros here.

Yes we are talking about micros and I have seen many stupid smaller donks with busted draws. I don't know exactly how many but when the donk size is around 1/2 pot I think we can call it profitably since we don't have to be right very often. But folding is ok here. I was just saying that on a drawy board you will face a bluff around that 33% of the time. That is just my opinion.

Originally posted by CPallo
Players on NL2 are playing according to their hand strength. This particular line seems like nuts for 99 % of the time. You don't have a call here.

la55i, see this. On this limit this is THE NUTS.

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by CPallo
Players on NL2 are playing according to their hand strength. This particular line seems like nuts for 99 % of the time. You don't have a call here.

la55i, see this. On this limit this is THE NUTS.

Not 100% of the time but yes very very often. I said it is ok to fold here but when the donk size is smaller lik 30%pot we could call. PS TT can be nuts to some villains here.

The donk size is up to the vision of villain about the bet sizing. Some thing that on the river there is no boundary and shove. Some think that pot is the limit and bet pot. Some think that if they bet pot, they will scare you, so they bet smaller than pot.
As we cannot tell what type of guy is our villain ( without any reads or notes), so we should be very aware that this is a strong line we are facing.

You can call a smaller bet, or a bigger bet, only after collecting info about villain and when you know that it is profittable to do so.

In my experience our JJ will be good in this kind of boards and spots at least 2 times of 10 which makes it mathematically correct to call 30%pot bet. I got your point. I think it is pretty useless to continue this discussion.

2 out of 10 is not 30%!!!
And yes, we should cut the discussion.

Originally posted by la55i
In my experience our JJ will be good in this kind of boards and spots at least 2 times of 10 which makes it mathematically correct to call 30%pot bet. I got your point. I think it is pretty useless to continue this discussion.

You have a database to back this up?

When the bet size is 30% of the pot we have to be right 20% of the time. You are right, 2 out of 10 is not 30%

Originally posted by Pistoleroo

Originally posted by la55i
In my experience our JJ will be good in this kind of boards and spots at least 2 times of 10 which makes it mathematically correct to call 30%pot bet. I got your point. I think it is pretty useless to continue this discussion.

You have a database to back this up?

Took a 100k sample of NL2 and NL5, filtered out situations where I'm open raising pre, no 3bet. Villain check calls OTF and OTT and donks river less than 70% pot and I call. Got 11 hands.

5/11 times villain had a very weak hand, most of them single pair with a draw, one hand villain had top pair weak kicker. It's not a huge database but you can make some conclusions.

You should take into account that if you are a thinking player, you have folded in this occasions, and you can fold much more than you call.
So your database shows only the cases where you called for a reason.

just dont fold on this runout.... busted draws are in his range quit a lot of % of times