AK on the river - Herofold yes/no?

hello :
i think the majority of his range is AJ .
sometimes he makes set JJ or some of the others sets or QT like you say.
but i think on the river your pot odds are good to call and win in alot of cases to AJ .

MP2 46.15% 46.15% 0.00% AdKs
MP3 53.85% 53.85% 0.00% JJ, AJs, QTs, AJo

you can call.

Originally posted by nitrol
MP2 46.15% 46.15% 0.00% AdKs
MP3 53.85% 53.85% 0.00% JJ, AJs, QTs, AJo

you can call.

+1

Originally posted by nitrol
MP2 46.15% 46.15% 0.00% AdKs
MP3 53.85% 53.85% 0.00% JJ, AJs, QTs, AJo

you can call.

Edit: After giving it another tought I think you should just call for that price.

Yeah, If we give him that range it is an OK call for that price.
I think he could have all those combinations but they are not equally probable based on his actions on previous streets.

For example:
I don't think we can assume that this guy opens QT from UTG as standart play.
I think most of the times he would cbet flop with AJ and I'm not sure we can safely assume he raises the river on this board. At least not 100% of the time.
Noone mentioned KK which I think makes the most sense given his lanes on all streets. I know we have a blocker but still possible hand.

All in all I think even with those odds VS this particular guy we are beat quite often and don't mind hero folding here.

Yeah, you have got odds to call. You need around 22% equity to BE and with these range:

Board: 3♠4♥A♠ K♦ J♥
Equity Win Tie
UTG 30.00% 10.00% 20.00% { AdKs }
UTG+1 70.00% 50.00% 20.00% { KK+, JJ, AKs, AJs, AKo }

Even if you add QTs in his range, which is too loose for him, you're good to go with top 2 pairs against his river „minraise“.

I'd call.

But, frankly, the range assessments ITT suck. Just one example. Could he do this (check-back flop, CALL TURN, raise river) with JJ? Sure, but the probability that he plays thus weirdly (being a reg) is less than 33%. Thus at most you can count one combo of JJ. Similar remarks apply to other combos, especially QTs. You must weigh probabilities for each combo when ranges are this tight!. Otherwise the Equilab calculations are useless.

KK may raise the turn...imo.

Yes they may, in which case either of 3 KK or 0 KK (both occur ITT) are poor estimates.

What is ITT?

It will be a lot easier to analyze this spot if you would check villains pfr from UTG.

You should have these stats in your hud.

18/14 villain will open at most 10% from UTG.

Originally posted by nitrol
What is ITT?

In This Thread.

Every hand the villain could have here - with those lines - makes him an idiot except Q♠:T♠: and JJ. Calling with JJ is not a bad call OTT here for the villain. He was the preflop aggressor and can chose to turn JJ into a weak bluffcatcher OTF, IP. Calling OTT and evaluating OTR is absolutely fine.

Cbet% will tell you if QsTs is possible here. It would be weird not to cbet OTF with that, but not nearly as weird as checking back AJ OTF, then raising when it makes the second best two pairs OTR.

It also could be an idiot slowplaying AA, but the smart money is on QsTs or JJ. Probably still calling, but geez, I'd tank some timebank over it.