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TT becomes set should have gone all-in on river?

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robin261187
Joined: 04.01.2011

Hey guys.

Called a small blind raise with TT and floped a set in a J high rainbow flop.

Decided to just call on the flop and start action on turn.

But the K and his donk bet on the river made me think that perhaps villain could have AQ or KK, so I just called. Analysing the hand afterwards, I think I should have gone all-in on river.

I gave villain the following range on river:


Board: T♣J♥3♠ 4♦ K♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
SB     38.98%  38.98%   0.00% { KK, AQs+, KJs-K9s, Q9s, AQo+, KTo+ }
BB     61.02%  61.02%   0.00% { ThTs }

No JJ, because I think he would have re-raised me on the turn. Other hands like AA, QQ wouldn't donk river.

If my range is correct it's a clear all-in!

What do you think?

Full Tilt - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 100 BB
CO: 131.5 BB (VPIP: 36.36, PFR: 27.27, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 22)
BTN: 167.5 BB (VPIP: 36.36, PFR: 7.58, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 70)
SB: 147 BB (VPIP: 25.61, PFR: 18.29, 3Bet Preflop: 13.51, Hands: 85)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T♠ T♥

fold, fold, SB raises to 4 BB, Hero calls 3 BB

Flop: (8 BB, 2 players) T♣ J♥ 3♠
SB bets 5 BB, Hero calls 5 BB

Turn: (18 BB, 2 players) 4♦
SB bets 9 BB, Hero raises to 18 BB, SB calls 9 BB

River: (54 BB, 2 players) K♠
SB bets 28 BB, Hero calls 28 BB


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10 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I think if you want to raise it is better to do OTF. Raising OTT will generate much more folds, especially when it is a complete blank. Your hand smells like set.
As you said, JJ is not that likely. Because KK and some straights got there OTR it is ok to just call.


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robin261187
Joined: 04.01.2011

Yeah.

Thought that raising on flop would have been better afterwards also. Mainly because there are two connected cards. I wouldn't like the turn to be a Q+ or 8 or 9.


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kriko92
Joined: 16.11.2010

Originally posted by robin261187
Thought that raising on flop would have been better afterwards also. Mainly because there are two connected cards. I wouldn't like the turn to be a Q+ or 8 or 9.

Exactly.
As played, I'd raise turn bigger on this board with both bluffs and value hands. River is easy call, he can have better hands in his range and the worse hands than yours are probably donk/folding with this sizing.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

To OP: Your range estimate is not correct because it contains unreasonable elements. For instance, not all 16 combinations of KT can be expected to fire 3 times (including calling a raise).


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robin261187
Joined: 04.01.2011

Hey, YohanN7, thanks for the answer.

In fact, he was actually holding KT. Maybe because I knew that when I was analysing I kept it in his range and tried to justify his play. I don't know if I would keep it if I didn't know what he had.

But since there are only 3 possible combinations of KT remaining, it wouldn't influence the EV that much, I think, right?


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

We miss value by not raising. Raise flop, Bet solid turn.


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robin261187
Joined: 04.01.2011

Originally posted by nitrol
We miss value by not raising. Raise flop, Bet solid turn.

Agreed. Thanks.


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nathanrenard
Joined: 10.02.2009

Originally posted by nitrol
We miss value by not raising. Raise flop, Bet solid turn.

On NL2, once you have a strong hand imo you should always go for value, and not just calling behind waiting to raise action on turn.


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zoty79
Joined: 31.03.2010

I think you played the Hand till river. I would have raise/fold the river. He can call with all the 2 pairs, and ships just straights and maybe KK.


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poompah
Joined: 26.12.2011

Forget the equity calculations -- you wont be doing those on the River any time soon -- not at this level -- totally unnecessary as you wont have enough marginal decisions for it to matter.
At NL2 you can safely fold in marginal spots as you will have a feast of hugely +EV spots to make a ton of money from.
Build big pots with big hands quickly and commit players to calling off with their draws, TP or weak 2P type hands.

Your Turn min-raise is PATHETIC. How TF do you expect to get his stack by making feeble plays like this? It's incredibly fishy to make min-raise in this way and marks you as a player that does not know how to get value from big hands. Stop playing small-ball -- your opponent wont fold TP here as its blind-vs-blind as he thinks you are full if s**t!!


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