KJo SB vs BB - $5,50 slow 15min blinds Deep Stack @ Pokerstars.

Hi. This is ICM situation and 75% of the field on that tournament are not understending that. You where probably against recreational player. And here you need to be very carefull, because they will definitely call wider than NASH. In this situation I can garantied you that recreational player is calling with all suited Ax hands and this is clear mistake. But they do it. And if they are doing so, you must open shove tighter than NASH. Not NASH. This is very important.

Just for illustration I made calculations in HRC for 180-man SNG on bubble:
NASH is this:
SB open shove: 43.5%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K9o+ Q3s+ Q9o+ J5s+ J9o+ T6s+ T8o+ 96s+ 98o 85s+ 75s+ 65s 54s
BB call: 15.1%, 55+ A5s+ A8o+ KTs+ KJo+

If BB call: 19.6%, 22+ A2s+ A5o+ KTs+ KQo
SB can open shove with: 21.9%, 22+ A2s+ A4o+ KTs+ KQo QTs+ J9s+ T9s

In that case if you are shoving KJo, you are the one that is making mistake because KJo is not anymore open shove but fold.

So you see how big is difference? And recreational players don't understand that. You should think like they do and rather not open shove into them if they have you covered. This is my strategy on bubble. Unless I have some really strong hand.

GL at tables!

ICM isn’t too big of a factor, because you don’t really want to play for min cash and with a top heavy paid out you want to reach at least a final table or better. So I would make a shove here for sure and it’s indeed possible the BB is calling to wide around the bubble here.

Cheers,
SDK1987

With 12 BBs, KJo is also a clear shove in my book blind vs blind. No doubt it is +chipEV. Agree with SDK on ICM - obv. something that can have a some effect here, but not too much considering it is top heavy paid out.

Personally I am not a fan of tanking, but on the other hand, you have to take the edges that everyone in the tourny gets, so if there were any chance that 2 guys would bust before your timebank ran out, I would have used the timebank and then shove.

Originally posted by Malendes
With 12 BBs, KJo is also a clear shove in my book blind vs blind. No doubt it is +chipEV. Agree with SDK on ICM - obv. something that can have a some effect here, but not too much considering it is top heavy paid out.

Personally I am not a fan of tanking, but on the other hand, you have to take the edges that everyone in the tourny gets, so if there were any chance that 2 guys would bust before your timebank ran out, I would have used the timebank and then shove.

In chip EV any K is open shove. But will you do it? Is profitable to do it? Why not r/f to unknown opponent or limp stab? Also chip gained on bubble or so close to bubble have lower value than chips lost.
We are not looking to min chashes. But how many deep runs can he have if he double up? If he is just ITM he get let say $7. If he bust $0. What is better? If he duble up here will he go deep because of that? At least 80% of the time probably not. Big field and pay jump is verry low untill FT or close to it. Also 10% of the field bust right after bubble burst. This mean that he will get in most of the cases more than just $7 but rather $10. If he fold here and get ITM with 8bb he has chance to get deep also. If he bust, clearly not.
Won't argue about exactly hand, because don't know pay out structure but we can't take here chip EV ranges and open shove any K and any suited Qx, suited Jx, etc. If he plays 1000 thouse tournaments and becasue of folding get just ITM in 2% this mean that he will get at least 20*$7=$140. If he shove and double up no one can garantee him that he will get at least $15/double up.
I don't say that there is no hands for open shove because of that. But ignoring ICM because we wanna get deep and not min cash is not good on the long run. It lowers ROI and this is what we wanna get high. Not deep runs. Rather take it step by step and first get ITM and then go for win. It brings more ROI than be one time deep and other time bust.

GL at tables!

I never said we totally should ignore ICM in this spot, I just assumed it wasn't that big of a deal. But I agree with what you said there and with that reasoning I guess shoving wouldn't be the optimal.

But what should we then do? I refuse folding, dear Sir tank/limp or tank/raise? and would you CBet on this flop?