Bottom set vs flop shove

9T /AQ/A4 etc. of clubs can play like this. I'm calling.

Against a range of JJ,88,AcKc,AcQc,AcTc,Ac9c,Tc9c,Ac4c we only have ~36% equity. We need around 43% equity to call, so even if he shoves these hands 100% it's still a -EV call. Even if he shoves every nut flush draw 100% of the time, we still only have ~48%. I think the only way I can get a profitable call is if villain is willing to shove AA here. Against a range of 88,JJ,AA I already have enough equity to call, even before considering his bluffs.

Villain cannot have A♣4♣ as Hero already has the 4♣

Can i find a fold here with bottom set? I don't think villain is opening hands like J8s from MP, and I don't think he will do this with QQ+ or nut flush draws very often, especially considering that we are 140bb deep.

What is this based on? We have no stats and no reads on opponent -- is your interpretation simply based on an average player? Reads really matter!

Why not think about how MP sees Hero?
Have you been folding to shoves a lot? Do we have a read suggesting he is observant? Some players will shove their flush draws hoping to get folds -- but you have already raised his C-bet -- and while your range still includes hands like JT/QJ/AJ/T9 that might fold -- Villain needs to think (a) you would raise those hands on the Flop and (b) you could fold a big draw and TP hands.
Many players wont -- and that skews his range more towards value-type hands. There may be some nut-draws (hoping to get it in against worse draws) and AA/KK in his range -- but you need a read on how he plays overpairs.

I agree with your range calculations -- bottom set just is not that strong on connected boards like this. Even though I hate to fold here your analysis makes it obvious that is the correct line. This is a marginal spot at best facing a 3-bet shove.

Would you call with 88?

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Originally posted by poompah
Villain cannot have A♣4♣ as Hero already has the 4♣

Can i find a fold here with bottom set? I don't think villain is opening hands like J8s from MP, and I don't think he will do this with QQ+ or nut flush draws very often, especially considering that we are 140bb deep.

What is this based on? We have no stats and no reads on opponent -- is your interpretation simply based on an average player? Reads really matter!

Why not think about how MP sees Hero?
Have you been folding to shoves a lot? Do we have a read suggesting he is observant? Some players will shove their flush draws hoping to get folds -- but you have already raised his C-bet -- and while your range still includes hands like JT/QJ/AJ/T9 that might fold -- Villain needs to think (a) you would raise those hands on the Flop and (b) you could fold a big draw and TP hands.
Many players wont -- and that skews his range more towards value-type hands. There may be some nut-draws (hoping to get it in against worse draws) and AA/KK in his range -- but you need a read on how he plays overpairs.

I agree with your range calculations -- bottom set just is not that strong on connected boards like this. Even though I hate to fold here your analysis makes it obvious that is the correct line. This is a marginal spot at best facing a 3-bet shove.

Would you call with 88?

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I have virtually no hands on villain, so I can't make any specific reads. I think my line looks really strong on NL10, calling a raise preflop and then raising the flop cbet isn't all that common. If a villain takes this line I would put him on a set a lot of the time.

I agree with your analysis that he is skewed towards value hands; almost everyone would play JJ and 88 like this, but a lot of people would play a draw or overpair differently. Without having reads that tell me he bluffs draws or shoves AA/KK in this spot I should fold.

If I had 88 in the same spot it would be a snap call. Even if villain always has 44/JJ I have enough equity.

Too much words when the truth is obvious. We call preflop to set mine and we should call postflop when we hit.

Originally posted by poompah
Villain cannot have A♣4♣ as Hero already has the 4♣

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Oops didn't see that.

OP:

Do you always raise your sets to this size mw? You didn't raise it even to 3x when there is 2 players to act behind you. If sb calls your raise mp has really good price for calling. I would raise my sets and other flop raising hands to 4x in mw in this situation and 3-3,5x heads up (on this type of board).

Originally posted by marsa08

Originally posted by poompah
Villain cannot have A♣4♣ as Hero already has the 4♣

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Oops didn't see that.

OP:

Do you always raise your sets to this size mw? You didn't raise it even to 3x when there is 2 players to act behind you. If sb calls your raise mp has really good price for calling. I would raise my sets and other flop raising hands to 4x in mw in this situation and 3-3,5x heads up (on this type of board).

Good point. I don't really have a standard raising size for this situation, but i suppose it makes sense to bet bigger multiway.

In my general preflop plan if none is fishy on my left i fold 44 on mp vs Ep but as it's 5max it's prop ok...

raising sets there is absolutely fine .. cause the board is dynamic and many cards on future streets will change the value we can extract...
Also be in mind if someone has a draw range that will follow , usually will be very strong to fold even when we raise flop multiway...

About sizing i will use expo bigger size multiway , as big as , on most black turns they will feel committed to shove/fold..

At last the hand played well

Originally posted by nitrol
Too much words when the truth is obvious. We call preflop to set mine and we should call postflop when we hit.

I agree with this.

Originally posted by la55i

Originally posted by nitrol
Too much words when the truth is obvious. We call preflop to set mine and we should call postflop when we hit.

I agree with this.

I guess I shouldn't be setmining with 44 preflop if I'm not comfortable calling a shove on the flop when i hit. So my play should be either fold preflop, or call flop shove when I hit.

Exactly. There's no other way, imo.

Here I would setmine with 55+. Widening it to 44 is not so bad imo.

I am even more conservative at times with more active players yet to act but not a mistake to set mine 44 here.