KQ monster draw turn in 3bet pot

Why do you want to raise turn?
You have 12 outs and only 1 card to come. I prefer calling.

i like raising flop or jamming turn ♦ though one could read his sizings as QJ or 7x exactly, in which case you should call. that's the only thing holding me back from raising but if he doesn't have a straight you can put a ton of pressure and fold out tons of villain equity

I like this as played. I wouldn't get crazy OTT.

I'm playing around with various reasonable 3betting ranges SB vs. CO and I just can't even get you 40% on this flop versus any 3betting style with your exact holding of KQcc. I've tried Axs heavy 3bet range, suited connector heavy range, pocket pair heavy range, value heavy linear range, all of them just wreck this flop.

As played flop call is easy for this sizing as we need to defend ~63% of our 3bet flatting range to this cbet sizing across our whole strategy. On this dynamic board we should call cbet with much more than MDF (~80%+) as we hit it harder in general (or at least as hard) and we can flat call less cbets than the MDF on more static boards.

If we flat something like JJ, TT, 99, 88, 77, 66, AQs, AJs, ATs, KQs, KJs, AQo, AJo, KQo, QTs, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s then our exact hand is actually one of the worst in our range on this board but still a call because we pretty much continue everything except AQhh AQdd KQo, 66, AQo. Continuing with 80%, sounds about right to me...

Rangewise you're actually almost definitely ahead on this flop. With KQcc behind but still fine as played.

On this turn I could be wrong but I don't think we need to call again when we have so many sets, two pair, combo draws, straights and QQ/JJ in our range. Again I could be wrong here.

This all changes if you have nitty flat vs sb 3bet range of course.

turn is a direct odds call unless villain is holding our outs. of course he's holding our outs quite often but we still don't need very much in implieds, which we almost definitely have unless he's going nuts with overpairs (unlikely) or other draws (more likely) -> if he is then jam turn

There is a SBvsCO 3betting range which we have 50% against:

MP2 50.93% 50.45% 0.48% JJ+, 55-22, AQs+, KTs, QTs, J9s+, T9s, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, AKo
MP3 49.07% 48.59% 0.48% KcQc

This is a bit bluff heavy but it is fine. If you want to make this more balanced you can take 22-55 and 97s,J9s out. We still have 45%.
Our hands equity vs his range isn't everything. We can outplay villain postflop.

We have odds to call turn.
Villain can have bluff 3b range which hit the board too but we have our equity and we can improve.

Yes, turn is definitely a call with our hand.

Originally posted by Tomaloc
turn is a direct odds call unless villain is holding our outs. of course he's holding our outs quite often but we still don't need very much in implieds, which we almost definitely have unless he's going nuts with overpairs (unlikely) or other draws (more likely) -> if he is then jam turn

Jamming turn is too much for me.
If we had this combo draw from flop , there I would be aggressive.

Originally posted by Tomaloc
turn is a direct odds call unless villain is holding our outs. of course he's holding our outs quite often but we still don't need very much in implieds, which we almost definitely have unless he's going nuts with overpairs (unlikely) or other draws (more likely) -> if he is then jam turn

Villain has left himself less than 1/2 pot bet on the river, he's never ever check folding river. I don't see where we are conjuring these supposed implied odds from?

Originally posted by la55i
There is a SBvsCO 3betting range which we have 50% against:

MP2 50.93% 50.45% 0.48% JJ+, 55-22, AQs+, KTs, QTs, J9s+, T9s, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, AKo
MP3 49.07% 48.59% 0.48% KcQc

This is a bit bluff heavy but it is fine. If you want to make this more balanced you can take 22-55 and 97s,J9s out. We still have 45%.
Our hands equity vs his range isn't everything. We can outplay villain postflop.

I ran the same calculation and we have 34.72% after 200,000,000 monte carlo simulations on 10s9s8c flop.

Your equity calculation is for preflop, I don't debate that KQs is possibly the easiest call there is preflop.

Ah, sorry. I thought we are talking about if we should call this hand pre but you were talking about if we should call OTF?

So we have 35% and this is a call on flop.

Originally posted by Calsaj

Originally posted by Tomaloc
turn is a direct odds call unless villain is holding our outs. of course he's holding our outs quite often but we still don't need very much in implieds, which we almost definitely have unless he's going nuts with overpairs (unlikely) or other draws (more likely) -> if he is then jam turn

Villain has left himself less than 1/2 pot bet on the river, he's never ever check folding river. I don't see where we are conjuring these supposed implied odds from?

if he's never check/folding then we always get his stack when we hit? isn't that the exact definition of what implied odds are?

Yes, if he is never folding OTR we have huge implied odds.

I think that we have implieds too.

dont see why you called cbet. KQ is bottom your range on this flop.
On turn its rais all in. there is alredy 7$ in pot and we only risk 8$ to win that.

Originally posted by karbonade123
dont see why you called cbet. KQ is bottom your range on this flop.
On turn its rais all in. there is alredy 7$ in pot and we only risk 8$ to win that.

Villain will 3bet bluff and cbet here often. If we only call when we hit we can easily be exploited. Also we have overs and bdfd. Ps. Your math is not correct.

Originally posted by karbonade123
dont see why you called cbet. KQ is bottom your range on this flop.
On turn its rais all in. there is alredy 7$ in pot and we only risk 8$ to win that.

We do not have enough for that.

Originally posted by Tomaloc

Originally posted by Calsaj

Originally posted by Tomaloc
turn is a direct odds call unless villain is holding our outs. of course he's holding our outs quite often but we still don't need very much in implieds, which we almost definitely have unless he's going nuts with overpairs (unlikely) or other draws (more likely) -> if he is then jam turn

Villain has left himself less than 1/2 pot bet on the river, he's never ever check folding river. I don't see where we are conjuring these supposed implied odds from?

if he's never check/folding then we always get his stack when we hit? isn't that the exact definition of what implied odds are?

Winning his inevitable bet of $4.95 into $10.10 pot most of the time when we hit our ~35% draw (possibly still optimistic odds) is not my idea of good implied odds. At much deeper effBB, sure.