Originally posted by sabo999
Originally posted by cannell555
I would risk AA against 9 players preflop in a tourney tbh. For just one buyin i'm going broke with AA pretty much in every game.Apart from some bubble situations, where you can make a very harsh fold.
Very Good Point --
This is one Situation where i was like WTF to a guy when he told me he went all in with the A's..400/800
4 People on the Bubble in a $30 9Man - SS has only 1 Big Blind left -Friends Stack : 10'000
Big Stack : 10'800
Next Stack : 8'000 (or sumet close to that)
Short Stack : 1'200 (on the small blind so, 800 behind, 400 in)Friend Picks up AA UTG+1, Raises to 1'400
CU Folds
BU (big stack) Moves All In 10'800
SS Folds .. Friend Calls.. Lose's to KK (KKK)Worst Idea Ever, even though i can see his logic, i would wait until the SS is out and your ITM, i mean, it's only going to be 4/5 hands MAX, if not the next hand..
Folding aces in this spot is a really big mistake!
Beside that the situation is wrong, who was the bb, why can he raise to 1400 with 800blinds?
But I'll make a small Analysis there(assuming the midstack was the bb and your friend minraised).
Your friend has 8,400 behind, when he calls the Pot would be 20,000+blinds=21,200.
If he folds the Stacks would be: bigstack 13,600; hero 8,400; midstack 7,200; shortstack 800. Your $ev would be 30.58%
If you call and win the stacks would be: (former) bigstack 800, hero 21,200; midstack 7,200; shortstack 800. Your $ev would be 43.79%
If you call and loose your $ev would be 0% (suprise ...).
If you call and tie the stacks would be: bigstack 11,400; hero 10,600; midstack 7,200; shortstack 800. Your $ev would be 33.23%.
So against a range of KK+ you would be win in 70.382% tie in 14.061% and lose in 15.587%
$ev-call = 0.70382*43.79% + 0.14061*33.23% = 35.4927481%
So with a fold you are loosing almost half a buyin (or in other words almost 5% of the prizepool).
Even when you would know the bigstack would only push T9s (where AA would lose at the highest percentage of the time [win 77.615%; tie 0.362%; lose 22.023]) $ev-call = 0.77615*43.79% + 0.00362*33.23% = 34.1079011%. Even only against AA your $ev-call would be 31.88%.
Folding aa preflop is only +$ev in sattelites and dons.
If this question comes up again just copy and paste this ![]()
I hope my posting is not full of language mistakes im a Kraut.