stright vs possible flush, easy fold?

Overshove on river is hard here he bets so huge mmm. I would have raised turn with the nuts for sure. Why do you think you are splitting here, it is possible but with 2 Aces already in your hand, it becomes way less likely that he has an Ace himself. Normally if you want to know how many Ax hands you can be dealt you can say ok deck of 52 with 4 aces in there you get: AA 4/52*3/51 = .45% and for any other Ax (x not an Ace you would get) for either first or second hole card being an Ace but the other one not:

4/52* (51-3)/51= 7.2%
(52-4)/52*4/51= also 7.2% of course. You can also look this up in equilab all Ax hands is around 15% (all 3 previous values added). Now when you already have 2 Aces, you can do the math yourself and this number will drop significantly. So I would raise on the turn for sure, and see how villain reacts. If he folds you are done, if he reraises you gii, and if he calls well that is for sure interesting if you see how the flush completes and then he shoves 110bb. Most players will just check/fold or check/call with a non-nutty straight but you need the information from his behavior on the turn by raising which you didn't do so you didn't get this information. Genereally here you might say it is a puke-fold on river (also when you believe that if you call it will either a)be a split pot but which I think is unlikely or b)you will lose to a bdflush), but you missed the raise on the turn for sure.

Thanks for sharing the way you think in this spots, I was reviewing hands from yesterdays session, and i saw that i was never raising the turn, when I have the nuts,
Mistakes I was doing, shoving toppair hands in the turn, and cold calling with sets and full houses and strights... which muuust be a leak

You can cbet the flop too.

Flop is a bet. Turn is a raise. You have the nuts, so why let villain outdraw us with flush draw?

Originally posted by la55i
Flop is a bet. Turn is a raise. You have the nuts, so why let villain outdraw us with flush draw?

+1

Originally posted by la55i
Flop is a bet. Turn is a raise. You have the nuts, so why let villain outdraw us with flush draw?

Whaaaat?

Why would you raise the turn? 9x flushdraws aren't betting because they have a bluffcatcher straight, 1 pair 2 pair hands are not betting for the same reason, unless it's one pair hands bluffing in a weird spot, in which case calling and letting them is obviusly better. So it's just 8x and lower flushdraws that would bet there and there just aren't very many of those for people to call with SBvCO, yet there are 11 combos of AsXs that just snap ship the turn and enjoy the 22% equity freeroll for the your remaining 110 big blinds. Or you just pay extra rake vs a naked Ax, which is gonna happen often enough.

Just don't, idk why people are suggesting it, even game theory wise we shouldn't be raising that turn except for maybe if we have AsXs ourselves, we wanna call there with our turned two pairs and some 9x so raising Ax is horrible. Only reason to raise would be if you know villain is a huge fish who is just absolutely clicking buttons and will betc/call two juicy pears there or 9x, but there aren't even that many fish who don't realize that it's pretty easy for their opponent to have an Ace there, especially if they raise the turn.

Idk, I'm kinda baffled that people say raise, FWIW river you have to fold it's just gonna be a flush like always.

Flop went check check. Villain will stab with a wide range. I don't really care what villain is holding here because we have got the nuts. We want to make villain pay with his draws, sets, 2pair etc.. We want to make the next card as expensive as possible. If we do not raise here, we do not protect our hand and we miss value.

river you have to fold it's just gonna be a flush like always.

You can't think like this.. It is possible to make max EV decisions on earlier streets while still losing the hand in showdown.
The flush is not going to hit so often. The more money you get in OTT, the more money you make in the long run.

I dont think it will be the flush like always still strange betsizing by him though or is it the standard I rivered unlikely nuts now bet huge into a 10bb pot to make it look bluffy and get called by a strong range?

The way it is played - on the river it is an easy fold. Overbet 5X donk at micro vs fish - easy fold.
I guess we missed few value bets - flop and to raise turn.
Just to note - we do not have A blocker on nut flush, that means he easily could have AsXs

I think you should have c-bet flop and on the turn try to go all-in.

As played the flop, turn is a raise. A big raise IMO.

As played the turn, river is a fold.

tiltmonk, maybe not so "easily", since we hold two aces ourselves. He can still have AsXs, for sure.
I would raise the turn, allowing villain make mistakes by calling w holdings he could fall in love like sets, 2 pairs and flushdraws.

With raising on turn I do not see many 2pairs calling. Sets maybe ... but not all...

Agree that maybe they dont call w these holdings, but by raising I m givin them the chance to do that. When I dont raise, its impossible, for sure, to extract value from these hands in this same street.

what is the purpose for raising if no weaker hand will call and only split hands will?

well played

Originally posted by nitrol
what is the purpose for raising if no weaker hand will call and only split hands will?

Are u saying that every set and flushdraw will fold?

It depends on the size of your raise actually but still not all are calling.