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Defending overpair + gutshot + nut blocker vs flop raise

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marsa08
Joined: 30.01.2014

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

SB: $4.90 (49 bb)
BB: $10.79 (107.9 bb)
Hero (UTG): $10.32 (103.2 bb)
MP: $9.40 (94 bb)
CO: $9.39 (93.9 bb)
BTN: $10 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T♥: T♠:
Hero raises to $0.25, 4 folds, BB calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.55) 6♠: 9♠: 7♣: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.33, BB raises to $0.97, Hero calls $0.64

Turn: ($2.49) 9♥: (2 players)
BB bets $1.58, Hero calls $1.58

River: ($5.65) Q♦: (2 players)
BB bets $2.91, Hero folds

No info on villain :(

Pre: Normal open (2,5x is my standard here)

Flop: Villain raises us. we could just exp. fold but we block T8 and we have overpair + gutter so decided to defend at least once and see turn. Villain should not have many 58 in his range.

Turn: Turn is a good card for me, bad for his rising range. Turn card blocks most 99 and bricked any sd/fd;s so I decided to call once more. I think that I could just fold here as I don't expect villain to bluff this card often because It is bad for him to bluff, but then I think that the avg. nl10 players do not think on this level...

River: Villain can still have missed draws but I just decided to fold as I think that the avg. nl10 player does not bluff like this enough for us to call profitably. Otherwise this runout with nut blockers would be ok to call/call/call if we knew that villain is capable of blufing enough. Edit: actually 9T would be alot better here to call/call/call.


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4 replies
Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

You block some of possible draws, drawy board doesn't encourage to bluff, thus I don't think he did.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

I think blockers are overrated, especially on the later streets unless you really know that villain is trying to play GTO using his hole cards as randomizers. You have stronger evidence than blockers, namely that he check-raises and keeps on betting. This usually means sets+ or strong draws, but considering that at NL10 people bluff little (and call too much making bluffing little correct), I think folding river at the very latest is correct.

Edit: You block 2/4 T8s. There are still 9 sets, so you are up against 11 instead of 13 nut hands. This is not much of a difference. True, turn removes 3 more. But he does keep on betting, and that counts too. A full house certainly would.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Given the positions, I don't think he will have alot of draws to semi-bluff raise and in general I don't think people (including me) are semi-bluffing often enough vs flop cbets, so I would be tempted to fold right on the flop. We can probably call once, but fold vs further aggression imo.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Folding flop is the right play for me. We cannot call a turn bet on too many cards.


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