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Valuebet river? topset

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iPoker - €0.50 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 57.78 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 2.78, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 36)
UTG: 103.22 BB (VPIP: 36.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 60)
CO: 113.64 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
Hero (BTN): 164.88 BB
SB: 118.9 BB (VPIP: 21.54, PFR: 14.62, 3Bet Preflop: 3.64, Hands: 133)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♠ 2♥ A♦ K♦

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 6♦ 9♦ K♣
BB checks, Hero bets 5 BB, BB calls 5 BB

Turn: (16.5 BB, 2 players) T♠
BB checks, Hero bets 12 BB, BB calls 12 BB

River: (40.5 BB, 2 players) 5♥
BB checks, Hero bets 40.5 BB,
Hero wins 2.72 BB
Of course I know that QJ is the nuts here, and 78 is the second nuts... But, Am i supposed to checkbehind the river? I saw this player x/c stright @ a monoton board, so I thought that I maybe should make a thin valuebet here? Is it a correct way of thinking? or am i burning money in the long run?


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3 replies
VisuLatvijai
Joined: 15.02.2007

I like your line. I think I will be played the same way.


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Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

Not sure about river bet. Have to check it with PokerJuice when I get time Problem is that he can't have much worse hands that could call, but he has better hands that would call river. And to valuebet you need to win over 50% of his calling range. Flop and turn are good bets.


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

I put following ranges to PJ:

Preflop he calls with 50% range, and would 3bet oop 4%.

Flop he calls with any dd, 78+, K+. Would raise 99 or 66.

Turn he calls with any dd, 78, JT7, JT8, QT7, QT8, TT and KT with any gutshot.

On the river he calls with KT or better when hero bets.

In his river calling range he has better hand (78+) 82% of times and worse hand (KT+) 18% of times. He folds 55% of times but that doesn't matter here.

Looks like a clear check back with those ranges. If he is capable of slow playing QJ, it becomes even more clearer check back. If we remove all those crappy straight draws without a flush draw from his range, it doesn't change anything.


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