Summer Success - Post Hands and Questions in Thread for Session Today

1. Know the Golden Formula - Percentage of total Pot Invested = Percentage Equity Required. This is super useful formula that works for calculating break-even point on a bluff, and also required pot-odds for making a call. Find out how to use it in the session.

2. Probability 101 - Understanding how basic probability works. Using decimals in calculations. Understanding the difference between, ratios, decimals and fractions. We don't need to be a genius to understand that stats/probability is an important part of poker maths. Learn to speak the language of probability.

3. Implied Odds. Understanding how to calculate implied odds. Understanding how to improve mental arithmetic skills. Many players know how to calculate implieds but can't calculate it fast enough in game.

4. Basic EV calculations - Understand how to perform basic EV calculations. The backbone of all maths analysis on poker hands. You should not call yourself a poker player unless you understand this on at least a basic level.

5. Advanced EV calculations - Understand slightly more advanced EV calculations using multiple stages. We'll look at a slightly more complex problem which takes in to account our understanding of probability.

If we have any time left at the end of the session we will review user posted hands in the Silver Challenge thread (here)

I know the maths course was yesterday, but I need some help with accounting for ties in EV calculations. I am mostly interested if the math is correct, but if anyone has a strong opinion on the way I played the hand I'll be happy to hear it.

I cold 4bet mostly as a bluff here. If someone shoves I fold, If they call, I should be doing ok. I'm not sure if 4betting or CC here is best, but I'm pretty sure I was losing money by CC in these situations, so I started 4betting as a semi-bluff.
I hit a K on the flop, cbet without thinking about it too much and got raised. Obviously it looks terrible, especially since I hold the Ac, but it was a 4bet pot I had invested a lot already, so I just shoved and now I'm trying to figure out if it was a "good" decision. Maybe, since I'm 4betting mostly as a bluff I shouldn't be cbetting. Thinking about it more I don't think a cbet here achieves anything, but w/e. Math.

la55i correctly pointed out that the amount I'm risking is actually 17.44. Thank you.
TLDR
Let's give him 2 combos of AA, 3 of TT, and 3 combos of AK (out of 6). Idk if he ever raised AK on the flop here, but I've given him 2 combos of AA and 3 of TT so it should be fair imo. I probably spent about an hour trying to figure out how to calculate this and I'm still not 100% sure if I got it right.

* The difference between what I'm risking and what I would end up with if we split. If we chop I get 26.365. 26.365 - 18.45 = 7.915

Hopefully my math is correct. If it is, shoving is still better than folding, since I would be losing 9,5$ if I fold.

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $45.91 (183.6 bb)
BB: $23.93 (95.7 bb)
UTG+1: $11.14 (44.6 bb)
UTG+2: $28.07 (112.3 bb)
MP1: $33.90 (135.6 bb)
MP2: $26.73 (106.9 bb)
MP3: $26.94 (107.8 bb)
Hero (CO): $27.95 (111.8 bb)
BTN: $30.36 (121.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K♦: A♣:
UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to $0.50, 2 folds, MP3 raises to $1.75, Hero raises to $4.50, 4 folds, MP3 calls $2.75

Flop: ($9.85) T♣: K♣: 3♠: (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $5, MP3 raises to $10, Hero raises to $23.45 and is all-in, MP3 calls $12.44

Turn: ($54.73) J♦: (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($54.73) 9♥: (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results:

AK is still one of the strongest starting hands and I'm not sure if that can be called a bluff 4bet. MP3 has bluff 3bets in his range and we are just putting pressure here. I would call this value 4bet and I think if villain shoves we should call with AK.
Imo cbetting is not bad. After he raises I think it is either shove or fold. If you shove you have to win the hand around 40% of the times to make it profitable, if I calculated that correctly...

I'm not very good at math myself but I see a couple of problems. First thing is that you are not risking 18.45 because villain has less left.. You are actually risking only 17.44$.
And when I put this in equilab with the range you wrote here you are winning it that 7% but splitting around 20% of the times. I don't know how did you come up with 36%.

MP2 28.30% 7.63% 20.67% AcKd
MP3 71.70% 51.02% 20.67% AdAh, AdAs, TdTh, TdTs, TdTc, AdKh, AdKs, AsKh

And then I see one more problem. Basically you shouldn't calculate those splits at all because they are +-0.. If you put it in your formula like this, you should put the same amount into the - side I guess. When those are split pots I don't think you can just put half of the splits into your winnings but not put the same amount into the losses.
Edit: I think I thought about that incorrectly so let's forget that and wait for someone wiser to answer to this x)

If I calculated that correctly your shove should be around -6$ EV.. Please someone check that.

Originally posted by la55i
MP2 28.30% 7.63% 20.67% AcKd
MP3 71.70% 51.02% 20.67% AdAh, AdAs, TdTh, TdTs, TdTc, AdKh, AdKs, AsKh

You gave opponent TcX, which he obviously can't have. Our actual equity vs given 8 combos range is

Board: 3♠K♣T♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    25.61%   7.53%  18.09% { AcKd }
MP3    74.39%  56.30%  18.09% { TT, AdAh, AdAs, AdKh, AdKs, AhKs }

So the math is pretty simple: if FE's 0, EV(jam) = equity*final_pot - investment = .2561*$54.73 - $17.44 = -$3.42
EV(fold) = 0 obv.

Also: I don't believe 4bet/call with AKo as a default can ever be any good in these positions. Ever. Especially at micros, where players are nitty, and rake cap is insane. Vs known tight opponent likely openfold is the best. I'd choose smaller 4bet size, to encourage him to call with weaker range. Otherwise it's too easy for him to just fold a bunch, and jam the strongest.

Thanks
Now I got the same result when I used the correct equity.

la55i,

Although I did mess up there Forgot the rake; final pot's only $52.73, so EV(jam) = .2561*52.73 - 17.44 = -$3.93. Around 2bbs less for 1 hand.

Board: 3♠K♣T♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    25.61%   7.53%  18.09% { AcKd }
MP3    74.39%  56.30%  18.09% { TT, AdAh, AdAs, AdKh, AdKs, AhKs }

So the math is pretty simple: if FE's 0, EV(jam) = equity*final_pot - investment = .2561*$54.73 - $17.44 = -$3.42
EV(fold) = 0 obv.

I just can't see how this can be correct. The are 3 possible outcomes. I win, I lose or we chop. Usually chopping is ignored to simplify things, because it won't make much of a difference. In this situation, however, we chop more than a 3rd of the time. And chopping is definitely not 0 EV. We win different pots when we win and when we chop, so I' don't think we can just lump all the percentages together and do the math that way.

My final math on this is:

0,0753x37,29 + 0,3618x7,915 - 0,563x17,44 = -4,14$

I'm not saying there is a huge difference. It literally doesn't matter for my game, but I've spent SO much time thinking about this, that it has become a matter of principal for me. lol

Hey saseca.

1st: equity by definition is probability of winning the pot. What I wrote was basic formula from probability theory. It is correct, and it is much easier to use.

2nd: you're picking pot sizes incorrectly. When we win, we always pay rake, so 1st number should be $35.29. We chop only the money on the table, not our additional bets (those obv account for zero EV); so 2nd number is ($9.85+$5+$5 - $2(rake))/2 = $8.925. I don't understand at all how you came up with $7.9 there ♠_confused:

EV(jam) = .0753*35.29 - .563*17.44 + .3617*8.925 = -$3.93

Which, of course, matches previous result

Hey,

I will use an extreme example just to illustrate where I'm coming from. Let's say I am in the exact same situation except we chop 100% of the time. I cbet the flop and face a r. If I fold I will be -9.5$. If I shove and we chop I will lose 0 (ok, with rake I will lose some money, but that's not the point), so the shove is + EV. The way I came up with that 7,915 was: If I fold I'll be left with 18,45$, if I shove and we chop, I'll have 52,73/2 = 26,365. 26,365-18,45 = 7,915. So I though that every time we chop I will be winning 7,915 compared to folding.

I don't know. You are probably right. Maybe I am re-inventing math here. haha I am tired of thinking about this.

edit
Thank you, Zolotarsp for bearing with me. It's all clear now. I was sure that splitting was messing up the equity calculations, but it turns out it isn't and I can just use the basic formula.

Oh, now I see You're only getting confused because we have more money than effective stack. Take it to an extreme, consider we have 450bbs; does it mean that after folding we'll have over $100, and chopping pot will be negative? Of course not. When trying to calculate your way, we should assume after folding we'll be left with $17.44, not $18.45. This way you'll get $8.925 for chopped pot, exactly as I did.

Still, your way seems unnecessarily way too complicated. I prefer working with only 3 numbers. May be it's just me

Originally posted by w34z3l

The ranges are for sale, but not available for free. However, you can get a much older version of the ranges for free in the w34z3l's walkthrough thread here at pokerstrategy.com.

If you want the latest ranges, your options are to try and take them from the live coachings or to purchase from http://www.pokerweasel.com/Ranges/

Just bought these after spewing another $50 on the tables thought $20 is a pretty decent deal Keep up the good videos. Just gotta make sure I finish them before my gold runs out (going on holiday for a week really slowed my SP :f_rolleyes:)

Hey guys,

This session is your chance to get any hands reviewed or questions answered.

Please post here in the thread before the session starts today.

1. Understand BRM
2. Take the Right Approach to Shot-Taking
3. Understand how to analyse your game

These are the three tips we will talk about today. Hopefully the remaining two will come from you guys in the thread!

Just a quick bump. Won't be a great session if no questions.

I'll be tuning in, but my poker is currently so bad I wouldn't even know where to start with questions

Has part 5 not been uploaded or am I just missing it in the videos?

It's not hard to come up with few topic. Though I'm not sure how appropriate it would be to ask kind of advanced strategy questions, especially at silver coaching.

So as long as everyone else hesitates, I'll instead post a bunch of hands I marked during play. Not every day you get a free review from high-class coach

Couple more.

I guess one question that both interests me and suits this series would be:

What's your recommendations on near-poker every day routines? Like what kind of pre-session warm-ups are advisable (or ill-advisable), if any? What's proper balance between playing and working off tables? How important is it to grind on firm schedule? What kinds of goals to set for yourself (time/hands/profit)?Is it better to play in the morning/day, when you're fresh, or in the evening, when fields are softer? How much time to play, how many days off is it good to take? And so on

My biggest leak: I can't fold (postflop). What do you recommend me to do to improve my skill at making good (exploitative) folds? Analyze more? Play more? Watch gameplay videos of better players? All of this or anything else?

How can I improve my self-discipline?

Actually more interesting is hand in next post, so if time is limited, please take next.

https://forums.pokerstrategy.com/forum/thread.php?threadid=390855

iPoker - €0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 109.5 BB
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 100 BB
CO: 43.15 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 3♦ A♦

fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, BTN calls 6 BB

Flop: (19 BB, 2 players) T♦ 7♠ 5♥
Hero bets 6 BB, BTN calls 6 BB

Turn: (31 BB, 2 players) 6♥
Hero bets 16 BB, BTN calls 16 BB

River: (63 BB, 2 players) 8♥
Hero checks, BTN bets 78.5 BB, fold

BTN wins 138.35 BB

31/23 36h

I was thinking about 3rd barrel, but guys in forum said to not even barrel turn. What do you think?

here is more of my reasonings.
https://forums.pokerstrategy.com/forum/thread.php?threadid=390479

plus also - what is the best size on flop cbet?