76s - River, cooler or easy fold?

You invested more than 1/2 stack so you cant fold with straight when no flush/fh possible vs donk at nl2. I would like to raise more OTT like 0.56-0.64, becouse you are giving good price for him to call with a draw

With what hands do you think he will call flop and turn and xr river?

Originally posted by nitrol
With what hands do you think he will call flop and turn and xr river?

Sets..

He has sets, T9 and some random overpairs in his range too.. I think that river line is decent.

Sets will push the turn...

Or slowplay and try to trap.. We should at least include some sets there.
Are you putting villain on QJ only and you will just xb OTR?

Or slowplay and try to trap..

Not on this board on turn...
Give him a range.

MP2 62.50% 50.00% 12.50% 8c7c
MP3 37.50% 25.00% 12.50% TdTh, TdTs, TdTc, 9d9h, 9d9s, 9d9c, 4d4h, 4d4s, 4d4c, T9s, 87s, QdJd, QhJh, QsJs

I gave villain half of the possible sets because someone can slowplay those. This is NL2 and we can't say 100% sure that villain has any kind of understanding how to play hands. Also he has T9s.. Only hand that beats us is QJs but I gave only 3/4 combos because someone might 3bet those

Btw I forgot that there could be stupidly played KK and other overpairs, at least some combos (very few but some)..

Who will slowplay sets when you raise on turn and fd is possible?
I think even fish will push there.

I guess villain range would rare contain overpair and sets OTR, I guess set would just shove turn. Totally agree with Nitrol. The main question hero should ask himself - from value I was extracting value? To me it is one of the hardest folds OTR - we invested to much money.

Yesterday I saw a villain that didn't 3bet with AA and just called every street with overpair.. We can include at least a few combos of sets, maybe not all but let's say 3 combos total? And would 2 pair (T9) sometimes just call turn because sets are possible? And could villain call turn raise with KT, I believe some villain could.
When villain just calls our raise OTT and checks OTR I think it is fine to bet for value, or do you disagree? After villains shove we have to call 1/4 of the pot and when villain might have something worse I think it is a call. We have to win less than 20% of the times.

Do not mess up sets with overpairs. Board gets connected and sets will play accordingly.

The point was that ppl will do all kinds of weird plays. In poker nothing is 100% sure. I think it should be kinda realistic to include at least 3 combos of sets (out of 18 total) in his range.
Also I think villain could think hero has some busted draws here and is bluffing river. He could be then shoving with 2 pair hands like T9 or KT. He might also be on tilt.

Do you still think villains range is 100% accurately QJs,QJo only? Or could you accept that there is on average at least 3 weaker combos which would already mean that we have a call OTR.

The point is that when you are on "the idiot" end of the straight you should be very cautious vs such river aggression.

i like your moove flop and turn, river you have second nuts you cant fold imho

Raise turn bigger
so you can pot-shove river.

Swag rhymes