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QQ turn protection

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TheTrain
Joined: 28.08.2014

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (MP): 185.4 BB
CO: 108.6 BB (VPIP: 14.94, PFR: 12.64, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 89)
BTN: 103.2 BB (VPIP: 8.33, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
SB: 99 BB (VPIP: 17.24, PFR: 6.90, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 31)
BB: 79 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
UTG: 180 BB (VPIP: 9.09, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q♣ Q♥

fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 3 BB

Flop: (8.4 BB, 2 players) 8♠ 4♣ 9♠
BB bets 3 BB, Hero raises to 23 BB, BB calls 20 BB

Turn: (54.4 BB, 2 players) 8♦
BB checks, Hero bets 52.2 BB, fold

Hero wins 52.2 BB

Hi all,

OTF, I got a bit nervous of the possible flush & straight draws on the flop and then the possible set for the villain on the turn, so I thought I'd protect with a large bet, but I think I might have overdone it because he folded. To be honest, I'm not even sure if I wanted him to stay in the pot and have an extra card on the river. How would you have played it? Would you've placed a value bet to make him call instead of fold?


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7 replies
Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

Why so aggressive,, if your afraid of fd, sd it would be reasonable to give them a prize they can pay, not necessarily a psb.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Small donk might also be a weak hit, something like 8x, so I can agree with the flop raise but maybe it is a bit too big? That turn card is not so great because 8x just improved :) I wouldn't bet so big.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Put it this way: There is 11.4 bb in the pot (preflop pot + his bet). Flop and turn together you put in 72.2. bb.

Your equity in that 11.4 bb should (before he bets) be something like 70%. Your action taken together make you put in a stack, in effect making it sure you go broke with QQ (justifying it as "protection"). To put it differently, you provide plenty of implied odds for people on earlier streets. (By this I mean I'd personally call your preflop raises extremely wide, knowing it's payday if I hit.)

Already when called on that gigantic flop raise, I'd say your equity is way, way, less than the 70% (or whatever) you began with. Nothing you want to call can call a PSB.


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tiltmonk
Joined: 02.07.2014

I guess raise OTF is too big. You villain is unknown and min donk seems pretty weak, Did you had plan vs villains flop 3b?
Regarding the bet OTT - if your target was to push him out - that is ok, I guess in the days of running bad it is normal to become insure again. I do sometime the same when I catch badbeat after badbeat.


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TheTrain
Joined: 28.08.2014

Thanks for the replies all, they really make you think about what you've actually done and how to play similar hands the next time! The more I think about this hand the more it's obvious to me that I need more experience in determining equity and bet sizes...

I think the big lesson from most comments is that I should not bet that big. Am I correct in thinking that I can get caught out quite often in these types of situations and by betting this big, it would cost me money instead of being profitable in the long run ?

Originally posted by YohanN7
...Nothing you want to call can call a PSB.

That actually makes sense when I think about it. If the villain would have a hand that I think I can beat, he will probably see my PSB and fold because his odds are not good enough to justify a call this big. Any hand that would be able to call this, will probably have me beat and therefore I would lose a whole stack when there was no need for it.

Originally posted by YohanN7
I guess raise OTF is too big. You villain is unknown and min donk seems pretty weak, Did you had plan vs villains flop 3b?
Regarding the bet OTT - if your target was to push him out - that is ok, I guess in the days of running bad it is normal to become insure again. I do sometime the same when I catch badbeat after badbeat.

I think I would have gone all-in on a 3b, but in hindsight, that would not have made sense? I would assume now that a 3b would most likely suggest that he hit a set at least and probably has me beat, so going all-in would not be smart in that situation.
I actually tried to push him out OTT. Again, after reviewing this hand with all the comments, that move actually makes no sense any more! Because if I want to push him out, that would suggest that I think he might have me beat and if that's the case...then why would I give him more money than I need to?


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

(The second quote above due to tiltmonk, not me:))

Anyway, regarding 3-betting flop: It used to be a "sign of weakness" if people donked, and that "they should be made to pay for draws". I don't agree with a conclusion leading to "stacks in regardless". Even if they happen to be weak, why force them to give up their bluffs? Draws have already paid (by betting themselves), and unless the hole cards are face up, draws is just a part of the range they hold. From a game theory perspective, you can't defend every single overpair with the stack on the flop. Doing it with, say AA, only (or AA + a few KK, this should depend on board, villain, stacks etc) doesn't change much this hand, or any other single hand, but it will keep the frequency with which you go broke on flop sane.


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Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

I 3 bet OTF as well, but not so big (17BB?). OTT I bet definitely smaller - 1/2 of the pot.


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