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delay cbet vs fish in 3b pot with air?

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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

iPoker - €0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 146.35 BB
BB: 171.55 BB
UTG: 98.65 BB
MP: 125.25 BB
CO: 100 BB
BTN: 100 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♥ K♣

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 8 BB, BB calls 7 BB, fold

Flop: (18.5 BB, 2 players) 5♠ J♥ 6♦
Hero checks, BB checks

Turn: (18.5 BB, 2 players) 5♦
Hero ?

BB wins 53.65 BB

38/18, fcbet 56 (9), fcbet turn 100 (2), wtsd 11 (19), 74h

in single raised pots its a std delay cbet for me. But not sure in 3bet pots. PLus he cold called 3bet, so his range is stronger also.

He can still have A high, KQ, PPs. But also he can have even AA.

His stats over this small sample shows that he is capable of folding to cbets.

But maybe the biggest thing is that he cold called 3bet and has simply too strong range. Jx also can be in his range easily.

Some suited hands which make FD.

Does he fold AQ, AK? Might also still call. If so then delay cbet really sucks :)


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20 replies
LordRonin
Joined: 10.02.2009

Still calling with 88-TT, 78s, xxd AK, AQ, AJ not folding. Nothing folds there. Just give up the pot. If planning to bluff better to start OTF, but it will probably take up to 3 barrels on such a flop. J and Q high flops are bad for bluffing I think. J is not a scary card for opponent. Q hits his range often. Also middle flops 789 are great for him in position.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I think you can give up. Other option would be to bet turn and if he calls close your eyes and bet again and hope he folds
When he doesn't stab you OTF I think he might be folding decent % of his range OTT.


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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

When he doesn't stab you OTF I think he might be folding decent % of his range OTT.

Ok, what range you think he is folding? I think what Lord said makes sense. Plust the fact that he has cold called a 3bet which makes his range strong relatively.

Other option would be to bet turn and if he calls close your eyes and bet again and hope he folds

Was thinking about that also :) but damn this might be a spew becasue of his strong range. Maybe it would be ok if he would have taken time before calling, often I see if they take lot of time, then their range is weak. But I do not remember him taking lot of time.
Once he calls turn, he can have PP which maybe folds to overbet. Or to normal bet if there is high card on river.

And he can have also overcards like AQ AK which he should fold on river to 2nd barrel 3/4 if does not hit.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Maybe he coldcalls 3bets with small pocket pairs to setmine. Also if he has AK,AQ,KQ maybe he is going to fold it vs turn stab, at least I would not call with only 6 outs (and maybe even some of them not good).


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Look, this is a dry flop and you should be stabbing like always.
And he will fold a lot of hands, some of them better than you or with better equity.


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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

Maybe he coldcalls 3bets with small pocket pairs to setmine. Also if he has AK,AQ,KQ maybe he is going to fold it vs turn stab, at least I would not call with only 6 outs (and maybe even some of them not good).

I see KQ folding. Maybe he is folding AQ, but I am not sure, thats the problem :) we showed weakness.
77-TT will call.
22-44 fold, but this is not big part.

And you cannot compare yourself with a fish, can you? :)


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

At any rate stabbing flop (once!) makes life a hell lot easier.


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Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

I bet OTF. As played, I don´t believe he folds on this turn if we bet.


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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

Originally posted by YohanN7
At any rate stabbing flop (once!) makes life a hell lot easier.

How it makes it easier? I think it makes it harder because on flop we do not have info that their range is weaker. But we have that info on turn because with nuts they bet flop. Plus we see free card if they check. If they bet flop we have air and we easily fold.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

It is a 3bet pot and ppl will fold quite much vs flop cbets if they don't have a good hand. Getting one free card doesn't help us much since we have 6 outs and even those might not be clean. It is true that villain will bet flop with nuts but so would we, so if we check flop and bet turn villain might continue with weaker range than he would OTF. When we decide to start bluffing OTT we will get so much calls from weakish hands that we would have to continue bluffing OTR.


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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

Originally posted by la55i
It is a 3bet pot and ppl will fold quite much vs flop cbets if they don't have a good hand. Getting one free card doesn't help us much since we have 6 outs and even those might not be clean. It is true that villain will bet flop with nuts but so would we, so if we check flop and bet turn villain might continue with weaker range than he would OTF. When we decide to start bluffing OTT we will get so much calls from weakish hands that we would have to continue bluffing OTR.

that is true. But I still somehow believe that on both turn and flop I should not cbet with air here. If we cbet air on flop, its so exploitable.

I actually should try to filter database how I do in 3b pots OOP with cbets.

Update
I filterd my NL20 hands where I did 3bet and I am OOP.

I see I cbet flop 43.70 %
cbet flop success: 28.85 %
sample - 134 hands.

So if cbet size is 0.5 pot, then I need to win 33% of time.

Plus here since he cold called 3bet, I think cbet sucess will be lowe but was lazy to filter with PT4, sample will be small anyway.

So I am not convinced to cbet air esp there on flop.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Yes it might be exploitable but at the micros I would say you are the one exploiting.
I filtered out my database too and this month I have had 170 spots where I 3bet OOP and cbet. My results this month were negative but I guess that has to be bad luck. My red line is positive but blue line negative. I had lost over 300bb with AA for example in that sample.
If I take a bigger sample, with over 400 3bet cbet situations, it shows already 60bb/100 profit.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I used the cbet success report too and it looks like I cbet around 60% in those situations and my cbet success wass 32.3%. But of course the board texture matters a bit too. Maybe it is better to cbet J high flop than A high because villain will flat a lot more Ax hands than Jx hands? But if I filter with high card J my sample size is just too small to give reliable stats.


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kocken2016
Joined: 27.09.2016

Dry flopp kill the hand, its low lvl 0.10/0.20 most players call your bet of its to small and wopps the sh***y hand he/she have is now a straight or somthing the player wont fold even a allin on showdon..so stab it hard on the flopp..also to know Ipoker netwerk low lvl play. Its harder to understand and analys the players even whit all the info/tools/tac in the world. Its only my opinion. Have a nice one


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MisterSnS
Joined: 09.11.2011

What about the fold vs 3bet stat? Would be interesting to know...

Ftcbet of 56 looks enough to cbet here, assuming he doesn't like to fold a lot vs. 3bets. If he's calling tighter than I really don't mind giving up, as suggested, or bluffing the river if he checks down (point where we most likely have the most foldequity)


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SPeedFANat1c
Joined: 04.01.2009

Originally posted by MisterSnS
What about the fold vs 3bet stat? Would be interesting to know...

Ftcbet of 56 looks enough to cbet here, assuming he doesn't like to fold a lot vs. 3bets. If he's calling tighter than I really don't mind giving up, as suggested, or bluffing the river if he checks down (point where we most likely have the most foldequity)

I think its useless to check f3bet stat when he cold called 3bet - its different thing.

So it should be like cold fold to 3bet or smth like this ?:) and I believe it would be 90-95%


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confidant91
Joined: 02.04.2011

i would cbet flop or give up completely. I dont like delayed cbets vs fish since they usually think that every value hand u bet on the flop so they pt u on air almost always and call u down pretty light....vs regs u can check flop and than go pot/pot on turn and river whcih creates pretty big pressue on villain, but u need to pick correct guys for that otherwise u can end up spewing bunch of dolls


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c

Originally posted by YohanN7
At any rate stabbing flop (once!) makes life a hell lot easier.

How it makes it easier?
...

Trivial.
If you get called, check and fold missed turn. If you hit turn, bet again (for the same reason - to make life easy).


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piR
piR
Joined: 31.08.2008

Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c

Originally posted by YohanN7
At any rate stabbing flop (once!) makes life a hell lot easier.

How it makes it easier? I think it makes it harder because on flop we do not have info that their range is weaker. But we have that info on turn because with nuts they bet flop. Plus we see free card if they check. If they bet flop we have air and we easily fold.

I don't agree with your assumption there : after your check; if he check he could hold a weak made hand but still be ahead of you. In that case the situation doesn't change turn on that card. Unless your line is : vs check flop / c/r turn to make fold his weak hand that beat you. but the line seems strange to me.

Also what would be your cbet "bluff" range on this board then ?
I'm not sure about the exact math but you can't cbet only when you hit because the opponent has less than 67% fold to cbet.
If you never cbet these flop with 2 overcards and give up against bet, you'll be exploitable because he can donk 100% when you check. If you check that flop here to give up, you should as well check hands like AA or 66 (to have some c/r or c/c in your range).
And then cbet hand like AJ and 9Ts ?
(Am I wrong ? Would love to have some confirmation on this from others)

I do think you could bet OTF here because it doesn't hit his range that much (and the board is relatively dry) - you also remove the possibility for him to bluff you with a weaker hand (that I don't believe he would raise you often with but that he could definitively bet after your check).


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