NL4 Set

I think your play and thought process are fine. I might have shoved OTF myself though. Fish probably calls anyway and I don't see reg folding AK here. Those hands that wouldn't call your shove here are not probably going to call even fish's raise when you call too. Or at least those shouldn't continue calling OTT.

Well I don´t think he would call me with AK after fish raises him and I shove over it. He perceives me as a normal player and don´t expects crazy moves from me. What can I shove there and he beats me? Yeah, OTT it´s pretty same, but we can´t really hold back when board is drawy. So, either he has AK and he is calling or he is folding and we are getting at least fishes stack. Just to add, he was taking his time to call OTT.

On the flop the reg will definitely overcall with a flush good draw, but it is nothing to do about that. This is a little part of his range, and he'll pay a fairly big price anyway. You could play passively on turn too (possibly the better play, reg might fold a hand you don't want him to fold if you bet), all money is going in anyway after that flop action.

I call to set mine (and if low flop comes, 99 should be still pretty strong).

I do not think it is superstrong but ok. Its 3bet pot so there can be mover overpairs.

Now, do we wanna bet straight away? I don´t think so, on the board is also an A, which hits villain´s 3betting range pretty well + we don´t have initiative, so I expect a Cbet there from villain (he´s got 61 cbet stat - of course it´s MW, which is a bit different situation, but 3rd player is a fish, so...).

With the fish in the pot I would like betting mysefl. If the reg does not have Ax he might not bet. He might even skip bet with FD if he thinks there is no enough fold equity. Esp in 3bet pot and so you loose value.

because if I shove there (or 3bet), the reg is not gonna call with worse than pocket A (the nuts) or 22.

I think 3bet would be better. Yea, FDs are not big part of range, but the qustions is are they having many bluffs later? If they dont, and we can assume fish is calling, plus reg might still get maried to his AK, I would like 3bet also. Now reg gets good price for FD and you let him see turn and hit. Even if he folds FD its good to collect dead money I think.

Well I don´t think he would call me with AK after fish raises him and I shove over it. He perceives me as a normal player and don´t expects crazy moves from me.

He probably should not. But he might call. I think its better to get money now and not lets them hit flush cheaply.

As played, you should not take back initiative turn there IMO that make no sense (c/R would be fine). As played turn you might lose CO from the hand > EV-.

As played, you should not take back initiative turn there IMO that make no sense (c/R would be fine).

taking back init on turn imo makes sense. Cause what if they have flushdaw and decide to check. You loose value.

We have less than 1/2 pot left. I think shove is just fine. Most of the draws will call anyway so we don't have to lure them in.