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AA in 3bet pot, fold OTT

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BelligerentBird
Joined: 08.08.2016

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 134.2 BB (VPIP: 17.24, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 3.64, Hands: 175)
Hero (BB): 100 BB
UTG: 135.4 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
UTG+1: 100 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 10.42, 3Bet Preflop: 3.78, Hands: 2,687)
MP: 85 BB (VPIP: 22.08, PFR: 11.25, 3Bet Preflop: 1.14, Hands: 248)
MP+1: 100 BB (VPIP: 13.46, PFR: 10.58, 3Bet Preflop: 3.70, Hands: 314)
MP+2: 127.2 BB (VPIP: 18.31, PFR: 9.86, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 71)
CO: 126.6 BB (VPIP: 17.21, PFR: 10.37, 3Bet Preflop: 1.60, Hands: 1,494)
BTN: 134 BB (VPIP: 14.81, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 55)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A♠ A♦

fold, fold, MP raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 2 BB, SB calls 1.6 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB, MP calls 8 BB, BTN calls 8 BB, fold

Flop: (32 BB, 3 players) 5♦ 9♣ K♠
Hero bets 19 BB, MP calls 19 BB, fold

Turn: (70 BB, 2 players) K♦
Hero checks, MP bets 56 BB and is all-in, fold

Hi guys! I decided to play check/fold OTT because I think that villain has too many kings in his range. I don't see too many hands which I'm beating here. But from the other hand I need only 31% equity to call and if he has QQ or something not Kx in his calling range OTF, then it's ok to call. So I'm not sure about this hand... What do you think about this fold?


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11 replies
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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

On the moment there are 2 kings on the board it’s I think less likely he has 1 with 2 cards in the deck left and he looks a little bit passive as well and I would most likely go for a value shove against his weird stack size and I wouldn’t be surprised he can call with JJ or QQ here. If he has a FH or trips it’s too bad I think.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Villain is shortstacker so probably recreational. He could have JJ or QQ as SDK said, or even a flush draw, especially when you check OTT and look capped. It is semi obvious that you don't have the king very often. Now villain reps that king quite clearly and I'm not sure he would shove if he really has hit trips.
On the other hand recreational player might not know how to extract the most value and just shove here, and maybe shoving with a king is not that bad move. It is a 3bet pot so king is more likely in his range. Flush draws are blocked.

Folding looks ok but maybe calling wouldn't be bad either.


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Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

You can't fold here. Doubtful he has sets, there are few Kx left, KQs, KJs.


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MyFloXyBabY
Joined: 15.02.2010

As played it's a fold for me, I don't see many hands other than Kx, 99 and 55 here.
Do you know lots of player who could call worse than TT or JJ flop ? And when players call with TT-QQ flop, do you think they'll think "oh, he checked the turn, I'll broke to bluff AA out of it" ?
I'd say no and no.


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tiltmonk
Joined: 02.07.2014

First of all, I guess we need to squeeze more preflop.
Second, I guess it is well played. It is passive player who whould never bet here without at least KX.


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SuperChompa
Joined: 26.07.2016

I'd go for 35% bet OTT, and given stack size if he raise I think I'd call. Against 100bb stack I'd rather bet/fold tho.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Originally posted by tiltmonk
First of all, I guess we need to squeeze more preflop.
...

We could, but we don't have to. An 8 bb raise with 90 bb behind already makes set-mining a more than dubious proposition, and calling with anything else than a pair horrible (if they knew what we held). Especially so if we, like OP, has the skills to get away postflop. (Not sure if it is correct, the important thing being not automatically going broke without thinking.) Getting 2 callers is an okay result since AA plays pretty good 3-ways 100 bb deep.


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Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

I like it as played.

Dadramel why you think we can´t fold there. It´s push in MW, what do we beat here? Don´t forget it´s NL5.


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scopinad
Joined: 13.06.2015

MP: 85 BB (VPIP: 22.08, PFR: 11.25, 3Bet Preflop: 1.14, Hands: 248)
Odd stack, miniraise open, good sample, fairly passive player, calling station waking up and shoving the turn, his range on this street is the nuts, bye! Well played.


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PatPoker5
Joined: 15.11.2008

Given the information I'd say a fold is oke here. At this limit I feel like calling is not too bad in this situation since, they might be shoving with weaker holdings.


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piR
piR
Joined: 31.08.2008

fold ok IMO, c/c could be possible as well I suppose since you keep bluff in his range.


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