[NL2] Overpair KK vs. All-In on the river

Hi polihy,

I moved this to the right plave

I think you could use bigger bet sizings. Villain minraises pre and you are OOP so you could 3bet bigger, like 0.15$. Then if you use 2/3 or 3/4 sizings you should have less than pot effectively left and you could just shove on the river. I think at NL2 vs short stacker (probably fish) bet bet bet line works nicely with hands like this.
As played river raises are too rarely bluffs. Some straights are possible and villain could have hit a 2 pair or slowplayed a set. If you don't have any reads that your villain likes to bluff, I think folding is reasonable.

Size bigger, you can size half pot when it's enough to broke that way to the river, here it's not so don't.

I think the fold is horrible, like, seriously, la55i, what have you been drinking, I don't see any straight here, the T8s is from outer space and the KTs we block it !
If he's capable of having those then I would argue he should also have lots of BFD trying to rebluff.
All in all it's not that he needs to often bluff for us to call here because first he can very well see himself valuing stuffs like QK or AQ and second we only need about 30% equity to call and even vs a pessimist range (I put every set, DP and straight possible) we seem to have that every day by far.

About sizing in general: Flop bets should normally be bigger than turn bets when you bet for value and "protection". The reason is that flop is a juicy street for drawing hands, but on turn implied odds go down. Overall sizing should be based on flop texture, your remaining stacks and your hand (probably in that order). I'd begin with an 80% flop bet here. If the turn card brings in many new draws, you should still bet pretty big (the reason being he picks up outs "fake outs" with which to bluff). Here, the 7♣: isn't very scary, so a 65-70% or so bet is fine. That should probably set you up for a river shove, haven't checked exactly.

Originally posted by MyFloXyBabY
I think the fold is horrible, like, seriously, la55i, what have you been drinking, I don't see any straight here, the T8s is from outer space and the KTs we block it !

I have been drinking just water
In this hand my thought process was quite simple: we get raised OTR & we don't have the nuts -> fold

I just base it on my population read. At the micros most of the guys are quite passive and mostly like to call too much. Bluffing is a bit more rare. You still see some bluffs but I think bluff raising river vs 3 barrel is the most rare bluff line of all. And because the population likes to call, I think he doesn't raise KQ or AQ as a value here very often.

I would say overfolding vs turn and river raises at the micros should be correct. I filtered out my database. This year's hands (130 000), saw showdown and river was a bet call. I won some pots, but in most of them I had the nuts and villain raised me with second nuts. Some of them were total bluffs. But overall there is a lot more losing hands than winning hands, winrate is -2340bb/100 in 125 hands.
Even if we block KT and T8 is very unlikely in his range, when he raises us I would say he has those hands quite often. And it looks like turning a value hand like AQ here into a bluff was very rare (something like 3 hands in the 40 I have won at showdown).

I would bet bigger F - 1,5 more BB. Then make big (2/3) T bet. As played I believe we are never ahead OTR (maybe some overplayed AQ?), but generally at NL2 I would fold.

size bigger will make your decision much more easy With good sizing you get an easycall OTR there next time IMO.
As played, OTR depends a lot on read you have on villain ? can he do that raise OTR with missed draw or lower pair ? If he's a passive player you can consider folding.

Originally posted by la55i

Originally posted by MyFloXyBabY
I think the fold is horrible, like, seriously, la55i, what have you been drinking, I don't see any straight here, the T8s is from outer space and the KTs we block it !

I have been drinking just water
...

Dangerous stuff...

Originally posted by la55i

Originally posted by MyFloXyBabY
I think the fold is horrible, like, seriously, la55i, what have you been drinking, I don't see any straight here, the T8s is from outer space and the KTs we block it !

... I filtered out my database. This year's hands (130 000), saw showdown and river was a bet call. I won some pots, but in most of them I had the nuts and villain raised me with second nuts. Some of them were total bluffs. But overall there is a lot more losing hands than winning hands, winrate is -2340bb/100 in 125 hands.
...

@Lassie
With that kind of data, you could do something really interesting. Go through as much as you can bear, and note the pot odds for a call. You certainly don't need to win most of the time... Then you can you extract some really useful info.

Thanks for the tip