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Interesting discussion here.
I would very often check call in this type of situatios and it happens quite often that we either take down the pot by the river by bluffing at some point or then we hit a Q or K and have the best hand. I also think we are folding too much if we fold everything that doesn't hit at least a pair, this hand has backdoors and 2 overs so should be a decent call out of position. Maybe I'm wrong. Would be nice to know if my thinking is badly flawed.
BTW what do you think about check raising OTF?
Originally posted by la55i
I also think we are folding too much if we fold everything that doesn't hit at least a pair, this hand has backdoors and 2 overs so should be a decent call out of position. Maybe I'm wrong. Would be nice to know if my thinking is badly flawed.
The point is villain can bluff, if not he can impale himself when we hit our outs, he can overfold when we float,... and if really he's the nitty type that's only valuing us badly here, we aren't making that much of a mistake ! Some hands just have to be the worst hands in our calling range, we have to deal with it.
Originally posted by la55i
BTW what do you think about check raising OTF?
I think it's awful, we have neither real blockers nor decent outs for nuts, on that flop we have lots of better hands to bluffraise.
Position rules in this game.
This is also why you should never float with trash composed of diffuse runner-runner outs OOP. Save that for IP where it might even scare villain to let you get either a free card or bluff him out at your discretion.
Defending equity in the pot, in this case in the low 30%, which is what Ed Miller is talking about in that long quote above, isn't successful OOP with absolute TRASH (and don't remind me we have overcards, they are possibly dominated and have low implied value) calling for the sake of not folding. There are sounder ways to keep villain from stealing, beginning with check-calling/check-raising with some good hands. (And it doesn't end there by far.) If you can't fix your flop ranges soundly, then there's something wrong with the opening range to begin with. Start there.
The only argument I can see in favor of calling is that it is the button and not CO that is behind us. He could really have anything. (But that makes the board actually dangerous.)
That Miller quote would actually be more relevant advice in LIMIT Hold'em (for beginners) where it can be almost blindly followed. Had I not read it here, I could swear that it is about limit...
But the most important insight is that when you are OOP and have missed the flop, then villain is simply entitled to steal some pots rightfully yours if the cards had been dealt out. It is the hammer of future bets. Now, if the original rundown flop equity is 32% (or whatever), you can safely assume that you have less equity in the new bet that goes in, partly because villain bet (value more often than bluff) and partly because some of his bluffs beat us. If a turn or river bet goes in, things turn worse on average - and bets are bigger.
Fortunately it works the same when you are IP. Then you are the one having a feast.
Also don't think you can successfully bluff villain out on average. Good bluffing is break even. Better than that is genius.