STT 5$ - bubble A9o vs fish

The problem in this spot that you need a lot of fold equity with the short stack still in and he’s 3x raising as well. Than you need to be sure he will fold more than you should expect and I don’t think a bad player will do this and I would fold here for sure.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Hi,
17 BB on the bubble is too much to push. Try to avoid spots where someone has opened before you. Your chips are more valuable than his chips in this situation and youre giving up your tournament equity to other players. Call and see the flop, you have position on him,or fold and wait for a better spot.

If we call pre-flop, we investing more than 1/6 of our remaining stack and there aren’t many good flops with ICM in mind. If we hit top pair, we could end in an awkward ICM-spot as well.

I couldnt fold here, I know there is serious ICM with the SS but even so you have an A IP against a fish so I would call at least or shove depending on the SB
But it does depend what type of fish he is, is he likely to cbet flop & turn or will he only bet if he hits? Could you call his flop cbet & bluff on a later street?
Does he always 3X, or did he always 3X BvB, had he been raising all the time BvB?

Against a wide stealing range ICMizer says shove
http://icmpoker.com/screenshot/zHYFUH/

some of my (additional) thoughts :
- there many ways to be a bad player so we need to see a bit more what makes him a bad player
- moreover, by SB being the Chip Lead leads us to a combination that I believe our FE decreases
- if SB from that position and as CL is 3x :
- with 25% of his range we are on less than a flip so a tight fold could be optimal.
- with 50% of his range we are on 56% and it's a marginal push for me given the shortstack is still in.
- with 100% of his range we are on 61% and it's a push I would make, happier to collect the dead money than get called.

In short we need to see what the combination of Bad Player & Cheap Leader & BvB means for that specific villain.

Hope the above made sense

I would fold here. Against SB you don´t have fold equity whether he´s a bad player or not. He has 43 BB and there´s a shorty with half of your stack. You have something like 65 % equity against SBs range (rough estimate!!) and especially because SB is so deep stacked and a bad player he will call probably with any two like K4o or so. Against such a hand you only have 60%. We are at the bubble, your risk premium is high, the chips you have are much more worth than the chips you win, with your stack your chances are good to make it ITM, don´t risk your stack and your equity on a marginal hand against the big bully. Just fold here and wait for a better spot.

I think this situation depends greatly on how everyone is playing.
If the BS is bullying and raising a lot I think I take a stand here, if he isnt raising much AND the SS are folding a lot then a fold and continue to abuse the SS's is probably a better strategy