Monster draw vs 99

Joined: 22.02.2016

10.12.2016, 14:39 0

Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $5.15 (103 bb)
Hero (BB): $7.06 (141.2 bb)
MP: $5 (100 bb)
CO: $10.67 (213.4 bb)
BTN: $5.56 (111.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q♥: J♥:
MP raises to $0.20, 2 folds, SB calls $0.18, Hero calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.60) 7♥: 2♦: 9♥: (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP bets $0.40, SB raises to $1, Hero calls $1, MP calls $0.60

Turn: ($3.60) T♦: (3 players)
SB bets $3.95 and is all-in, Hero raises to $5.86, MP folds

River: ($11.50) 7♦: (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $11.50 pot ($0.48 rake)
Final Board: 7♥: 2♦: 9♥: T♦: 7♦:
SB showed 9♠: 9♣: and won $11.02 ($5.87 net)
Hero showed Q♥: J♥: and lost (-$5.15 net)
MP mucked and lost (-$1.20 net)

i am really eager to learn about this situation, thanks

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jimmy21492

Joined: 17.11.2010

Posts: 70

10.12.2016, 21:52 0

Hey!

FLOP: Fold here. You should only call if you are certain that MP is not going to shove and that you really can get your implied odds on Turn our River. Since you're OOP your implied odds are way smaller.

Turn: Fold! you just don't have odds to call again. If you had this monster draw on the Flop you could play really aggressive and even go All in. But on the turn your odds go really down and it's not profitable to play like this.

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la55i

Joined: 27.01.2013

Posts: 8,896

11.12.2016, 12:47 0

At first I would have said that it was well played but when I read jimmy21492 comment I had to do some calculations to check this.

I think when villain check raises multiway he pretty likely has a set.
Equity Win Tie
MP2 26.46% 26.46% 0.00% QhJh
MP3 73.54% 73.54% 0.00% 99, 77

We have 26.5% equity and to call we need 33%, but if we assume MP will call too we need only 25%. Ofc he can re-raise too which would be bad for us. We might have some implieds here so I don't hate your call OTF but folding would be fine too.

OTT you have slightly under the required equity but because of implieds, your move is not terrible.

Overall I think your play was ok, at least it can't be a lot -EV, but it is close. Folding would definitely have been fine too.

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