NL20 AQ TPGK vs raise and barrels

OTT AK, AJ, beat you too...

He will 3bet AK preflop (he is very aggressive with 3bets and 4bets preflop) and will not raise AJ on the flop.

Well if you didn´t say he is aggro, I´d say definitely fold OTR, maybe OTT. But villain´s line seems bluffy to me. He´s got either set or nothing. Because if he is aggressive, he 3 bets preflop AJ, AK, right? Maybe if the river would be another card we can try bluff catch. SB 5(77) - this means his vpip is 5 over 77 hands? If yes, I wouldn´t go for bluff catchin. Then it´s clear fold. However I´m not sure if it´s correct to fold OTT or OTR. Honestly I don´t see much we beat OTT.

His calling range from SB is 5% over 77 situations. (mostly PP i guess) However with a fish on the BB he can call more hands (instead folding or 3betting them). Fold turn is better than call turn, fold river imo, because he either has 88 (maybe QTs) or bluff and he will most likely shove the river anyway.

So the question is does he have 1,5 combos of bluffs that 3 barrel this spot?

Well, 3 barrel as a bluff in this spot, I think that´s rarity and I wouldn´t give him bluffs there, probably never. I was thinking he would try to bet the T in order to try his bluff once more, but then I´d expect him to give up OTR.

I would cbet with a bigger size. What is the reason for cbetting that small? If they want to call, they will call the same range vs 1/2 bet imo. I'm pretty sure we can't call 3 streets vs an average player and probably not vs that villain, either. AK should 3bet preflop, but I definitelly wouldn't discount it from his range. Also, slowplayed KK+ is also possible. 88 beats us, AJ beats us from the turn... We should keep in mind that he check/raised multi-way vs UTG's range and keep barreling all streets. Looks very strong to me. I think we should fold the river, maybe even the turn.

Even flop call is on the edge for me.
Fold on turn for sure.

Your flop c-betting range should be very strong 3-way, there is no flushdraw on the flop. I just do not see any hand he is raising the flop and barreling of as a bluff.

Also you have way better hands in your range which you can call down with AA/KK/88/AK so you shouldn't be worried about getting exploited.

With the fish in the SB i would use a bigger c-bet size, as played i might consider folding the flop but definitely folding turn.

Easy fold on the flop. It is three-handed, fish in pot, you opened UTG, the board contains AK that hits a UTG open range pretty hard, so he isn't bluffing much. A good approximation is that he never bluffs here. So, you have very easy flop fold indeed.

Added notes on stats: Sometimes stats aren't worth very much, and that goes especially for preflop stats and interpretation thereof once the board cards have arrived. So, this dude is agro preflop. But then, is he also a bad player once the flop comes? Does he have a problematic relationship with money? If you can't answer those questions affirmatively once he starts firing, then preflop stats go out the window. You have more accurate clues about what he might be holding.

SB never have AK or KK+, because we had quite aggressive preflop dynamic in this session and the chance of him slowplaying something is close to 0%. He is also not a fish and he is not raising AJ there, because it is a terrible play vs UTG range. The J on the turn could be bad card because of QTs, but if he have that, he also have QJs, JTs and maybe T9s and he knows that his 3rd pair is not the best hand.

In this spot i expect this Cbet size be auto profitable , SB should fold a lot, and i can get all the money vs BB anyway or lose less when i get call and i have 65s for example. I also have the added bonus of inducing a bad raise.

I can`t imagine folding the flop vs aggressive, spewy guy. If he is making the mistake of raising the flop with his 3 combos of 88, then all combos of gutshots and T9s with BDFD are good candidates for bluffs.

I`m not worried about being exploited - no one on the bet365 nl20 premium tables is going to to that, especially in a spot like this. I most likely don`t even need to call the river with less that a straight. I just thought that he has enough bluffs, but i could be wrong ofc.

Then you know this villain very well, and do know that his relationship with money is problematic.

I have no objections, just a couple of questions:

• Which range do you think he puts you on once you have bet flop?
• Which is the biggest holding on your part that you think he thinks he can bluff you off?

1. I have no idea really. I know the he doesn`t like to fold, so he could be trying to take down the pot, especially when i use 40% Cbet sizing.

2. I guess Ax (AQ being the strongest) since i don`t have Kx hands in my range. It`s not even unreasonable if he thinks that i`m betting all Axs combos OTF.

However, those are just speculations and he can simply be trying to get all the money in with 88, without thinking of ranges.If so - then i`m just overthinking the spot and leveling myself into calling down. And since all of you think that he isn`t bluffing - it may very well be the case.

I forgot to add, as a question, whether you think the presence of the fish bothers him. The fish hasn't acted (meaningfully, he checked to the raiser, that doesn't count for much). I'd call once without the fish being there.

So you are saying that he is calling about 5% which is mostly PP and he is raising 14% of flops which is about the chance of flopping a set. Still somehow you are thinking he is raising this dry flop with nothing and barreling you off a very strong range.

Seems more reasonable he has a set, or the occasional AK he might have flatted because he wanted to invite the fish in.