Top 2P on drawy board

The turn bet is quite large. I don't see a reason to bet more than 1/2 psb. In fact, there is almost never a reason to bet more than 1/2 psb OTT. The problem we create is that worse hands fold and better hands raise. The stronger your hand, the more folds you will get OTT and in this particular case, your relative hand strength is declining as long as you have only TP (with TK is, of course, good enough to fire another barrel but not that large).
As played, I think xc, xf and bet 1-2 BB could be argued. If you think you have over 50% equity, you may want to make a small protection bet here OOP and let villain play straightforwardly. We still target TT, QQ, KJs+ that pay you off when the price is right. We can xc and bluff catch when the price is right by calling. I think everything over 60-65% I'd fold.

Originally posted by Hesticus
The turn bet is quite large. I don't see a reason to bet more than 1/2 psb. In fact, there is almost never a reason to bet more than 1/2 psb OTT. The problem we create is that worse hands fold and better hands raise. The stronger your hand, the more folds you will get OTT and in this particular case, your relative hand strength is declining as long as you have only TP (with TK is, of course, good enough to fire another barrel but not that large).
As played, I think xc, xf and bet 1-2 BB could be argued. If you think you have over 50% equity, you may want to make a small protection bet here OOP and let villain play straightforwardly. We still target TT, QQ, KJs+ that pay you off when the price is right. We can xc and bluff catch when the price is right by calling. I think everything over 60-65% I'd fold.

If you bet 1/2 pot on that turn is suicide, why would you bet like that?
A simple math example:
If MP has a flush draw betting half pot there is 0.77 so the potodds are 0.77/(0.77*2+1.54)= 25% and he has ~18% equity. You are giving him enough implied odds to call.
The pot needed to call 0.77 with an equity of 18% is 0.77/0.18 = 4.27 and the pot after the call is gonna be 3.08, basically after getting the flush on the river MP needs to get only 1.19 from bigdog63 to make the call on the turn profitable.

He is not giving him implied odds. He is giving him direct odds.
I do not think that we should bet big here.

Originally posted by luchoprat

Originally posted by Hesticus
The turn bet is quite large. I don't see a reason to bet more than 1/2 psb. In fact, there is almost never a reason to bet more than 1/2 psb OTT. The problem we create is that worse hands fold and better hands raise. The stronger your hand, the more folds you will get OTT and in this particular case, your relative hand strength is declining as long as you have only TP (with TK is, of course, good enough to fire another barrel but not that large).
As played, I think xc, xf and bet 1-2 BB could be argued. If you think you have over 50% equity, you may want to make a small protection bet here OOP and let villain play straightforwardly. We still target TT, QQ, KJs+ that pay you off when the price is right. We can xc and bluff catch when the price is right by calling. I think everything over 60-65% I'd fold.

If you bet 1/2 pot on that turn is suicide, why would you bet like that?
A simple math example:
If MP has a flush draw betting half pot there is 0.77 so the potodds are 0.77/(0.77*2+1.54)= 25% and he has ~18% equity. You are giving him enough implied odds to call.
The pot needed to call 0.77 with an equity of 18% is 0.77/0.18 = 4.27 and the pot after the call is gonna be 3.08, basically after getting the flush on the river MP needs to get only 1.19 from bigdog63 to make the call on the turn profitable.

You make a very interesting point. The problem here is that, next to the direct odds we give villain, we here solely assume villain has a flush draw. If we know this 100%, we indeed want to bet larger, especially when we know villain pays However, we still face a range so we need to play by default IMO. I still think it's not a good idea to bet bigger OTT.
Let's say we stick to your strategy and the flush gets there on a pot of 3.08. How will you approach the river OOP and, maybe even more interesting, IP?

Originally posted by Hesticus

Originally posted by luchoprat

Originally posted by Hesticus
The turn bet is quite large. I don't see a reason to bet more than 1/2 psb. In fact, there is almost never a reason to bet more than 1/2 psb OTT. The problem we create is that worse hands fold and better hands raise. The stronger your hand, the more folds you will get OTT and in this particular case, your relative hand strength is declining as long as you have only TP (with TK is, of course, good enough to fire another barrel but not that large).
As played, I think xc, xf and bet 1-2 BB could be argued. If you think you have over 50% equity, you may want to make a small protection bet here OOP and let villain play straightforwardly. We still target TT, QQ, KJs+ that pay you off when the price is right. We can xc and bluff catch when the price is right by calling. I think everything over 60-65% I'd fold.

If you bet 1/2 pot on that turn is suicide, why would you bet like that?
A simple math example:
If MP has a flush draw betting half pot there is 0.77 so the potodds are 0.77/(0.77*2+1.54)= 25% and he has ~18% equity. You are giving him enough implied odds to call.
The pot needed to call 0.77 with an equity of 18% is 0.77/0.18 = 4.27 and the pot after the call is gonna be 3.08, basically after getting the flush on the river MP needs to get only 1.19 from bigdog63 to make the call on the turn profitable.

You make a very interesting point. The problem here is that, next to the direct odds we give villain, we here solely assume villain has a flush draw. If we know this 100%, we indeed want to bet larger, especially when we know villain pays However, we still face a range so we need to play by default IMO. I still think it's not a good idea to bet bigger OTT.
Let's say we stick to your strategy and the flush gets there on a pot of 3.08. How will you approach the river OOP and, maybe even more interesting, IP?

Im not following you, the pot is going to be 3.08 if we follow your line of betting half pot on the turn. So your question is kinda weird

Originally posted by luchoprat

Originally posted by Hesticus

Originally posted by luchoprat

Originally posted by Hesticus
The turn bet is quite large. I don't see a reason to bet more than 1/2 psb. In fact, there is almost never a reason to bet more than 1/2 psb OTT. The problem we create is that worse hands fold and better hands raise. The stronger your hand, the more folds you will get OTT and in this particular case, your relative hand strength is declining as long as you have only TP (with TK is, of course, good enough to fire another barrel but not that large).
As played, I think xc, xf and bet 1-2 BB could be argued. If you think you have over 50% equity, you may want to make a small protection bet here OOP and let villain play straightforwardly. We still target TT, QQ, KJs+ that pay you off when the price is right. We can xc and bluff catch when the price is right by calling. I think everything over 60-65% I'd fold.

If you bet 1/2 pot on that turn is suicide, why would you bet like that?
A simple math example:
If MP has a flush draw betting half pot there is 0.77 so the potodds are 0.77/(0.77*2+1.54)= 25% and he has ~18% equity. You are giving him enough implied odds to call.
The pot needed to call 0.77 with an equity of 18% is 0.77/0.18 = 4.27 and the pot after the call is gonna be 3.08, basically after getting the flush on the river MP needs to get only 1.19 from bigdog63 to make the call on the turn profitable.

You make a very interesting point. The problem here is that, next to the direct odds we give villain, we here solely assume villain has a flush draw. If we know this 100%, we indeed want to bet larger, especially when we know villain pays However, we still face a range so we need to play by default IMO. I still think it's not a good idea to bet bigger OTT.
Let's say we stick to your strategy and the flush gets there on a pot of 3.08. How will you approach the river OOP and, maybe even more interesting, IP?

Im not following you, the pot is going to be 3.08 if we follow your line of betting half pot on the turn. So your question is kinda weird

Yes, you're right, apologies. Then the question isn't relevant. However, what other hands next to FDs will call a larger turn bet here? How can we play the river now the flush gets there?

Dont forget that he limped, so if he also has a low fold to flop cbet. I think the flop he could be calling with all the aces, jacks, backdoor straights, a lot of flush draws, because he doesnt have a normal open raise from MP, again, he limped. And in my opinion if a fish called the flop with a J hes likely to call the turn again and the size for him doesnt matter that much

Larger turn bet than the flop bet is the wrong idea. With a "wet" turn card, it would be slightly different. On the river, both check-call and bet-fold are okay. Which one is best depends on the opponent. Check-fold? Well, that depends on the size of the bet.

Flop and turn are well played.

Villain didn't limp. It is a minraise.
If we bet half pot OTT he is required to have 25% equity. If he has 18% we are not giving him direct odds..

With a bigger bet we are just committing ourselves easier. We also want villain to call with weaker Ax hands. He doesn't have 100% draws only and we do not need ultimate protection vs those. Also we could be donating money to better made hands like AJ.

Originally posted by la55i
Villain didn't limp. It is a minraise.
If we bet half pot OTT he is required to have 25% equity. If he has 18% we are not giving him direct odds..

With a bigger bet we are just committing ourselves easier. We also want villain to call with weaker Ax hands. He doesn't have 100% draws only and we do not need ultimate protection vs those. Also we could be donating money to better made hands like AJ.

Hahahahah yeah forget everything i said i dont know why i was seeing a limp

Now that I know it wasnt a limp (LOL).
Id 3bet bigger preflop 0.4
Cbet 0.5 in a pot of 0.82
Cbet 1.2 in a pot of 1.82

After reading all the comments, I understand that bet sizing is nor really good. I isolate myself vs. better hands and FD
maybe even underbetting T could be considered - I am sure snowie would like that