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(9-man Turbo, Early stage) TPGK facing a rinver donk

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msmozzarella
Joined: 14.03.2017

Pacific, $0.90 Buy-in (10/20 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 1,480 (74 bb)
BB: 1,500 (75 bb)
MP1: 1,500 (75 bb)
MP2: 3,030 (151.5 bb) vpip:21 / pfr: 17 / AF: 2.0
MP3: 1,225 (61.3 bb)
CO: 1,500 (75 bb)
Hero (BTN): 3,265 (163.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with A♥: Q♦:
MP1 folds, MP2 raises to 40, 2 folds, Hero calls 40, 2 folds

Flop: (110) 7♣: 6♥: A♠: (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets 82, MP2 calls 82

Turn: (274) J♦: (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets 137, MP2 calls 137

River: (548) 5♠: (2 players)
MP2 bets 274, Hero ???

I'm really not sure what to think when he decides to lead river. He could have hit the straight obviously, or have been slowplaying a set. Or he might be capable or of bluffing when the 5 hits. I'm probably beat, but I only need to win a 1 in 4 times for the call to be positive cEV. But is it enough to be +$EV, I'm really not sure.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

I don’t think a straight draw is to likely to check the flop and call 2 streets with, but in 1 $1 SNG you could expect anything. I don’t think there are too many bluffs in his range and weaker Ax combos aren’t likely ether. Those hands would bet the flop for sure and then there are only better hands left and I would fold without reads on him, $ev isn’t too big of a factor yet I think when we are the chip leader and I think if you count 5% extra for this it’s more than enough.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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JKV89
Joined: 05.03.2017

Ye just fold and gather more info


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