need to have a cry **warning** dont read if you dont wanna hear me moan

Watch your language son.

Is this cash game? Those hands are ...urm..."not so well played", the rest looks like normal variance and if you let variance take 2/3 of your roll then you should think about BRM. I recommend you to work on your mental game and to have a WAY tighter BRM. As long as your mental game is not so good it´s better to play lower limits with a very conservative BRM and meanwhile work on your mental game, get experience, study. Move up slowly! Better to build a BR slowly than tilting! Take your time to study the game, understand variance and statistics.

I hope I could help.....

H1:

H2:

H3:

Plus if you lose 2/3 of your roll in 4 hands I'd suggest actually sticking to BRM instead of just understanding it.

Stop whining.

I would suggest you the following:

*think again about those hands in a quiet moment, when you have cooled down
*move down in limits
*practice an extra-tight BRM as long as you´re tilt-prone
*learn to deal with variance
*re-consider the statistics and equities
*don´t move up, as long as you´re tilt-prone
*set a stop-loss limit

i had 30 buy ins and between the two of these they took 12 of them whether

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: $5.11 (VPIP: 31.58, PFR: 18.42, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 39)
Hero (BB): $5.41
UTG: $5.00 (VPIP: 60.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 10)
MP: $5.02 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
CO: $12.39 (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 26.19, 3Bet Preflop: 8.70, Hands: 127)
BTN: $7.05 (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)

SB posts SB $0.02, Hero posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A♠ Q♠

fold, fold, CO raises to $0.15, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.32, 2 players) 7♠ 2♠ 8♠
Hero checks, CO bets $0.25, Hero raises to $0.80, CO raises to $6.60, Hero calls $4.46 and is all-in

Turn: ($10.84, 2 players) 3♠

River: ($10.84, 2 players) 2♦

variance is bullshit

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): $6.36
BB: $9.66 (VPIP: 26.63, PFR: 16.85, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 188)
UTG: $5.16 (VPIP: 47.06, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
MP: $5.09 (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 16.78, 3Bet Preflop: 10.20, Hands: 144)
CO: $5.00 (VPIP: 12.82, PFR: 6.41, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 82)
BTN: $5.99 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 13.89, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 38)

Hero posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A♥ A♣

UTG calls $0.05, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.22, Hero raises to $0.60, BB raises to $1.60, fold, fold, Hero raises to $6.36 and is all-in, BB calls $4.76

Flop: ($12.99, 2 players) K♥ K♦ 4♦

Turn: ($12.99, 2 players) Q♦

River: ($12.99, 2 players) 5♠

4th AA today cracked in 500 hands how would you deal with it????
its starting to sting now

I have had a lot of that kind of hands.. Poker just works that way. Sometimes we run awfully lot under EV for some time. But luckily variance works in another way too. I have had many hands where I have hit a full house when villain had a flush. I bet you have too..

If you check your graph, how much are you running under EV in how many hands?

in the last 15k hands im 1200 below ev

the last 20,000 im 800bb below ev

the last 4k im 560bb below ev

So why do you cry then? I´ve been running below EV since April. It will change. This happens. It´s poker so this just happens. It´s very very annoying and can get on your nerves but we can´t change variance. That´s the way it is. No need to cry, it will get better.

Last 25k hands I'm running 1000bb below EV.
Last 100k hands I'm running 1900bb below EV.
There are several days when I have been running -400bb under EV in less than 4k hands.

What you are experiencing now is what every poker player either has experienced before or will experience in the future.
Totally normal. Poker works this way.

Just remember that luck goes both ways and sometimes you will get lucky too. You just remember your losses better than your big wins so you feel like you are always losing. Human brain works this way. Also you have to know that luck is very important. If fish wouldn't get lucky, they wouldn't play, so you would be playing against good players only.

Does anybody know the chance that someone who gets the money in good in good is running below EV. I am asking because I almost never read about any regular player who beats his EV-line...

I don't think it will converge to 50 %.

For example after three hands you only run above EV if you win all three hands (if there are 3 pots you can win of 100€ with 70%, the expectation value is 210€ but you only beat this when you win all 3), chance of this is 34.3% which makes the chance you run under ev 65.7%.

You can't calculate it like that. There are some cases where you play 3 hands but one of them you win only 30%. This means your expectation is only 140, which means you have to win only 2 to run above EV. Chance of you winning both 70% equity hands is almost 50% so you would be running +EV on the long run. And about 10% of the time you would be running even more +EV when you win the third hand too.

If you play same 70% spot over and over again, you will be winning 70% of that on the long run. But no one knows how many those spots you have to play exactly.

You can play a game and start flipping coins. Pick heads or tails and flip it a thousand times. Mark up the results. Then in the end you see how close it is to 50% and then see how many groups of 10 you can find that you ran significantly -EV-
I did this with random.org with 200 coins and I found one spot that had 9 tails in a row. But if I would calculate all of the flips, I bet it is close to 50%.

Thanks for your answer,

I heard somewhere that good players tend to run under EV because of getting the money in good... But I found that very weird.

However I did some simulations with running the same 70% spot over and over again (with computer power ofcourse)

These are the results:

The big green line being the EV-line, and the chance of running under EV converged to 50%

Conclusion of the experiment: People that run under EV are more vocal, so it looks like everyone is running under EV.

I have a question:

How long can a below-EV-streak last? I have the feeling they last "forever"

What do you mean with that, do you mean below-EV streak like running below EV every weak (if you reset your graph every week) or running below EV in your all-time graph...

In the first scenario the chances of a 4 week below-EV streak is about 7%, the other scenario is hard to say as you can run under EV forever if you have a rough start.

Yeah, on the long run. I don´t wanna complain here but I´ve been running below EV since April (didn´t count the hands but about 20 K) and I just wondered how long this can take (mainly loosing against 3-outers like loosing AQo vs Q2o). I would love to count down the hands until it´s finally over.