AA vs wet Board

You have pretty much answered your own question.

One thing you didn't think about is that the pot is so big and you have so little left compared to the pot if you just call this -> imo this is either a shove or a fold.
If you raise shove here you still would have +5bb EV even if we assume villain folds 0%.

So calculations and conclusion look ok but I'm not sure about those ranges. Would villain just call with AA and KK pre? I think he would shove those pre and he might do that with some AKs and QQ too. I think villain shouldn't be betting big on this board with any of his hands so it is quite difficult to put NL2 guy on a range here. But anyway, your break even point is about at 38% equity so villains range can't be much tighter, otherwise you have to fold.

Originally posted by la55i
So calculations and conclusion look ok but I'm not sure about those ranges. Would villain just call with AA and KK pre? I think he would shove those pre and he might do that with some AKs and QQ too.

Yeah fukk - I did this again. Here ur absolutely right: I do not see him call QQ+, AK So I have to cancle this out of the range.

So reworked this:

Originally posted by la55i
I think villain shouldn't be betting big on this board with any of his hands so it is quite difficult to put NL2 guy on a range here. But anyway, your break even point is about at 38% equity so villains range can't be much tighter, otherwise you have to fold.

How u calculate the break even point?
It is like the following? :

WIN = LOOSE
% * WIN_BB = (100 - %) * LOOSE_BB
X * (62,5 BB + 48,5 BB) = (100 - X) * 48,5 BB
X * 111 BB = (100 - X) * 48,5 BB
X = ((100 - X) * 48,5 BB) / 111 BB
X = (( 100 / 111) - (X / 111)) * 48,5 /111
X = (( 0,901) - (X / 111)) * 0,4369
X = (( 0,393) - (X * 0,4369 / 111))
X = (( 0,393) - (X * 0,4369 / 111))
X = (( 0,393) - (X * 0,00354))
x = ~ 0,38
X = 38 %

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL :coolface::coolface::coolface:
This can not be like this ...

Found this formula somewhere:
Equity needed = Amount to call/(Pot size + Amount to call) = 48,5/ (62.5 + 48,5) = 48,5 / 111 = 43,6
So If I do not call and push - than we probably should go like: my rest-stake / (pot + my rest-stake)
So my rest-stake is like: 118,5 - 20 = 98,5
So: my rest-stake / (pot + my rest-stake) = 98,5 / (62,5 + 98,5) = 98,5 / 161 = 0,61

How u did the 38 % ?

With the rework range we have exactly 38% equity ♦ ...

How u calculate the break even point?

I have actually made a calculator in excel for myself. My calculator solves the EV so I just change hero's equity and see when the EV is close to 0.

Originally posted by la55i

How u calculate the break even point?

I have actually made a calculator in excel for myself. My calculator solves the EV so I just change hero's equity and see when the EV is close to 0.

Ok I will ask about this in an extra thread probably ♦.

You forget that it is a three-player deal.

This affects matters in two ways.

• The CO has a hand too. This changes the EV-calculation. If he joins the party, he is going to like his hand. If this cuts off just 5% compared to your HU-odds, it is a big deal, since it probably is close to begin with. It surely does cut off 5% or more.
• The presence of CO is going to to reduce the number of bluffs substantially. Remember that it is likely from preflop play that you have something you like. Now, is MP going to call the preflop reraise with offsuit AQ? Only if he is very bad. Etcetera.

He donkbets into 2 players around 3/4 pot (!!), which normally indicates a very strong hand (at least two pair, but mostly just a flush) on these stakes. I would just fold here.

Originally posted by YohanN7
You forget that it is a three-player deal.

This affects matters in two ways.

• The CO has a hand too. This changes the EV-calculation. If he joins the party, he is going to like his hand. If this cuts off just 5% compared to your HU-odds, it is a big deal, since it probably is close to begin with. It surely does cut off 5% or more.
• The presence of CO is going to to reduce the number of bluffs substantially. Remember that it is likely from preflop play that you have something you like. Now, is MP going to call the preflop reraise with offsuit AQ? Only if he is very bad. Etcetera.

Originally posted by Sendrafreak
He donkbets into 2 players around 3/4 pot (!!), which normally indicates a very strong hand (at least two pair, but mostly just a flush) on these stakes. I would just fold here.

Yeah right - MP will bluff less if there are 2 further player in the flop. And the EV-calculation changes as well ... probably clear fold on flop here.

Thanks for ur opinion for this hand!