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PKO 27 $ EPhase. Vs aggressive Reg.

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pleasecallit
Joined: 27.08.2009

PokerStars - 20/40 Ante 5 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 200.72 BB
Hero (SB): 86.4 BB
BB: 72.55 BB (VPIP: 5.26, PFR: 5.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
UTG: 74.67 BB (VPIP: 9.26, PFR: 7.55, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 56)
UTG+1: 73.8 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
MP: 89.67 BB (VPIP: 21.88, PFR: 16.95, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 66)
CO: 70.45 BB (VPIP: 22.94, PFR: 16.19, 3Bet Preflop: 4.44, Hands: 109)

7 players post ante of 0 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.37 BB) Hero has A♠ 6♠

UTG raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 2.5 BB, Hero calls 2 BB, fold

Flop: (9.37 BB, 3 players) A♣ 6♣ 8♠
Hero checks, UTG checks, BTN bets 4.35 BB, Hero raises to 13.02 BB, fold, BTN calls 8.67 BB

Turn: (35.42 BB, 2 players) J♥
Hero bets 19.2 BB, BTN calls 19.2 BB

River: (73.82 BB, 2 players) J♦
Hero checks, BTN bets 165.87 BB and is all-in, Hero?

Spoiler

calls 51.55 BB and is all-in

BTN shows J♣ 8♣ (Full House, Jacks full of Eights)
(Pre 44%, Flop 40%, Turn 30%)
Hero shows A♠ 6♠ (Two Pair, Aces and Jacks)
(Pre 56%, Flop 60%, Turn 70%)
BTN wins 176.92 BB

Villain is very aggressive decent Regular.

His BU flatting range is vs Flop x/r and continuing turn bet is:

8 combo toppair
6 combos fd + pair
14 combso seccond and nut flush draw.
2 combos oesd + fd
1 combo guardshot + fd

sets he will get in on flop as well as two pairs. the high card flushdraws and fdraws with pairs got showdownvalue so therefore wont all in on flop as well as big draws are strong enough to just call or are more calls then rips.

otr

he got:
one combo fhouse, 6 combos JcXc
6 combo toppar vs 2 combo toppair which beat us
butsted draws: 23 which are 8 king high 6 combos with pair they check back.
so 11 Q high or worse.

all in all
value shoves: 7 (JcXc+)
bluff shoves: 9 (54s excluded....)

from that perspective a call...but will he turn the mentioned bluff shoves into a bluff? if not then always fold. i think better aces up (on the flop just ace pair and AK needed to slowplayed and AQ will always flat there and AJo will for certain 3bet pre) he will also shove so its a fold everytime? on the other hand i think like AK or AQ he can fold on the turn maybe.

additionally i shouod size otf bigger could go for jam ott or x /jam, with the x/jam is the risk of villains draws checkin back and give free card so this is suboptimal option.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

That’s a yikes hand on the river, but I don’t think we can call. We only spitting against his Ax hands or lose and its off course unlikely he has Jx or something except AJ and in combination with a flush draw or something and I don’t think you beat anything he would play like this.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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pleasecallit
Joined: 27.08.2009

Originally posted by SDK1987
That’s a yikes hand on the river, but I don’t think we can call. We only spitting against his Ax hands or lose and its off course unlikely he has Jx or something except AJ and in combination with a flush draw or something and I don’t think you beat anything he would play like this.

Cheers,
SDK1987

do you expect he will check back all busto f draws here?
and only bec its so early in mtt?
and bluff them in late stage?


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

it’s possible, but I doubt he would bet/call often with only a draw on the flop and turn.
He should have something there if he called 2 streets I think.


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Shevtshenko
Joined: 06.12.2009

You probably double counted some fds. Imo, most ppl fold turn with AQ and maybe even AK. And those hands are unlikely to bet when check to otr. JcXc is the most likely (only?) value hand for villain. It's pretty close. He needs to bluff at least all nfd-combos and worse. If he bluffs 8:c X:c then you have a clear call.


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pleasecallit
Joined: 27.08.2009

Originally posted by Shevtshenko
You probably double counted some fds. Imo, most ppl fold turn with AQ and maybe even AK. And those hands are unlikely to bet when check to otr. JcXc is the most likely (only?) value hand for villain. It's pretty close. He needs to bluff at least all nfd-combos and worse. If he bluffs 8:c X:c then you have a clear call.

if he is capable he should rather bluff low busted draws and not the nut f draw bec he got showdownvalue with them...no?

yeah really close spot, tbh i felt i was behind...but coulnd find fold button...and yeah i was little fuck up and wanted to know where i am at... cost me like 12 dollar or tho or ev of prob little higher...
and sometimes not to serious about best decission too much of a emotinal player but workin on that.


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Shevtshenko
Joined: 06.12.2009

Originally posted by pleasecallit

Originally posted by Shevtshenko
You probably double counted some fds. Imo, most ppl fold turn with AQ and maybe even AK. And those hands are unlikely to bet when check to otr. JcXc is the most likely (only?) value hand for villain. It's pretty close. He needs to bluff at least all nfd-combos and worse. If he bluffs 8:c X:c then you have a clear call.

if he is capable he should rather bluff low busted draws and not the nut f draw bec he got showdownvalue with them...no?

yeah really close spot, tbh i felt i was behind...but coulnd find fold button...and yeah i was little fuck up and wanted to know where i am at... cost me like 12 dollar or tho or ev of prob little higher...
and sometimes not to serious about best decission too much of a emotinal player but workin on that.

Yes. He should bluff with weaker hands before his stronger hands. But there just aren't that many non-paired hands in his range anyway after calling the turn. If he's actually good and slowplays AJ/sets ott, he definitely needs to bluff all fd combos to remain balanced otr.


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