NL10 AJs

I might be way off with this line, but he’s shown some strength in calling your flop raise. I might’ve just checked behind OTT and then, if he checks again, bet the river.

Villain looks fishy but he also looks passive. He could have several set/straight/2pair combos. His PFR is 4 so he is extremely passive preflop = I don't expect him to be very aggressive post.
I think flop and turn are ok since you need to protect your hand and you probably get him to call big bets with weaker value hands and draws. But OTR I wouldn't be super confident in that I have the best hand. I would probably just check behind here.

If you decide to go with a bet, I think it should be small. That 4c didn't complete any draws. You can bet small to get a lot of calls from weaker made hands and you don't have to fear that he raises you as a bluff. Normally I wouldn't advice underbetting the river when IP but against passive calling stations it could be ok. Now when you ship it I don't think villain is going to call with very many weaker hands if he really doesn't hate money.

Originally posted by lfcmichael
I might be way off with this line, but he’s shown some strength in calling your flop raise. I might’ve just checked behind OTT and then, if he checks again, bet the river.

There are still many draws out there. We can protect our hand and get value from those draws and weaker made hands. It is easier to bet the turn and then check behind OTR than check the turn and then think what to do when villain bets OTR. Also by checking we might miss some value from those draws.

Preflop we can also put some 3bets with AJs. I would play flop and turn the same vs a recreational player. I would expect sets/two pairs and better to raise at least OTT on that board, but the more passive he is, the bigger the chance that he will sometimes just check/call them. OTR it's very likelly that we have the best hand, so I wouldn't check back. We set ourselves a good price to shove, so I don't mind it against a recreational, but maybe a small bet (25-30%) would be better to make him call something like JT which he would maybe fold otherwise. I don't expect raises from worse hands, so we can comfortably fold if he does that.