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AKo overplayed OTR?

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Hasseman92
Joined: 18.11.2011

PokerStars - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 97.76 BB (VPIP: 80.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
BB: 38.6 BB (VPIP: 6.25, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
UTG: 105.64 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
UTG+1: 110.8 BB (VPIP: 23.68, PFR: 17.11, 3Bet Preflop: 12.90, Hands: 76)
MP: 84.84 BB (VPIP: 27.78, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
Hero (MP+1): 107.12 BB
CO: 100 BB
BTN: 136.2 BB (VPIP: 16.46, PFR: 12.66, 3Bet Preflop: 13.51, Hands: 79)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, CO posts penalty blind 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has K♦ A♣

fold, fold, MP raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 2.6 BB, fold

Flop: (11 BB, 3 players) K♠ 3♠ 3♣
SB checks, MP bets 5 BB, Hero calls 5 BB, SB calls 5 BB

Turn: (26 BB, 3 players) A♥
SB checks, MP checks, Hero bets 9.4 BB, SB raises to 29 BB, fold, Hero calls 19.6 BB

River: (84 BB, 2 players) 5♥
SB bets 37 BB, Hero raises to 70.12 BB and is all-in, SB calls 23.76 BB and is all-in

Hero shows K♦ A♣ (Two Pair, Aces and Kings)
(Pre 68%, Flop 9%, Turn 9%)
SB shows 3♦ J♥ (Three of a Kind, Threes)
(Pre 32%, Flop 91%, Turn 91%)
SB wins 197.52 BB


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11 replies
lfcmichael
Joined: 30.10.2016

Why not 3-bet preflop?

As played, I think I would certainly bet bigger on the turn. When he’s raised you, I don’t see many sets/trips here, as he should not have many 3x hands and he surely 3-bets preflop with KK. It’s really hard to fold top two-pair here for me, but those check raises rarely seems to be bluffs...

OTR, I’m not sure I’d shove. Would anything worse than our hand call? I think maybe I’d just call there in case he’s overplaying some weaker ace like AsJs. Then again, he should know we’re really strong after calling him OTT, so his donk looks strong as well and maybe we could make an exploitative fold.

I don’t know. It’s a tough spot. He should not be calling preflop with that hand!


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Hasseman92
Joined: 18.11.2011

I know, the cold calling preflop was a missclick.

I was almost sure he was overplaying some Ax hand. But you're right, maybe i should just call or fold OTR.


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LuckyManFromLT
Joined: 12.11.2013

River raise is huge mistake and I prefer folding. Ask yourself what bluffs does he have OTT. Actually SB can have quite a lot of 3x hands, almost all 3x suited hands can be in his range.


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lfcmichael
Joined: 30.10.2016

Originally posted by LuckyManFromLT
Actually SB can have quite a lot of 3x hands, almost all 3x suited hands can be in his range.

You would call preflop raise from MP with suited 3x? That’s just wasting money most of the time.


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Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

it does not matter what you would do. villain has called 4 out of 5 hands so far, so it's certainly plausible that he plays any suited.
as we see from the results, maybe even any unsuited...

so well - your hand is strong but fish certainly has tons of 3x in their range. i do not know what to do honestly, i feel i just don't fold and laugh at it later :f_biggrin:


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lfcmichael
Joined: 30.10.2016

Originally posted by Tomaloc
your hand is strong but fish certainly has tons of 3x in their range. i do not know what to do honestly, i feel i just don't fold and laugh at it later :f_biggrin:

This is true. Check-raise and donk is a strong line.


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DerErklarbar
Joined: 01.01.2018

Lets assume we wanna show that you should not fold on the river: then lets try to look at the plausible ranges of the SB, adjust them so its a bit more on the better side for him and see how you good you are against it. If we still dont find a fold than it should be good to get to the showdown (call or raise will be discussed later.)

In the SB with 3BB openraise and a caller, some player could be playing more drawheavy combos as you do, which is better for the SB as the board goes on as played. So A2s+, K2s+, 54s+, 75s+, 22+, and even all facecardcombos could be played. (Note that I dont say that most of the players are playing like this nor that it is profitable but loose player could play those cards and those extra combos will make his range on the river stronger.) Even though I expect him to raise AK and KK+, I will let it in his preflopcallingrange because he sometimes wants to “trap“ us.

On the Flop he could find a call with a whole lot of his range but after his checkraise on the turn I would only give him KK+,AT+,A3 and some combos of a flushdraw in spades that he played as a semibluff especially QsJs. Kx would not checkraise on an ace and the Ks on the flop blocks all Kx relevant suited combos. On the river is a less than halfpotsizebet, which seems like the intention of a smallvaluebet. A missed flushdraw that is that deep would likely go allin to maximize the probability to fold (which is pretty big assumption but like all the other thoughts about his range, it only helps his range).
With this in mind I would give him KK+, A3s (cause of those cards got a trip and want cards like your hand to pay him something on the river) and AQ+ (cause AK got two pair and AQ wants to get called by Kx - what your line could kind of be).
Against this range you got an equity of around 63%! Although we let him have KK+ in his preflopcallingrange in a multiwaypot, cut all the bluffs out of his range and even gave him K3s in his prefloprange. Your hand and the board just blocks so many A3s and K3s combos.

Result if the fold-or-not-fold analysis: you should not fold!

I would say only call because AQ will most likely fold against a riverraise and all the possible bluffs that we discounted for the fold-analysis wont call either and then you are up against a pretty bad range (25% equity coming only from the splitpots with AK)

Result: Call the river bet


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Everything is pretty much said already but here are my quick thoughts:
Pre could be a 3bet. SB can be loose. Check raising the turn multiway is rarely a bluff. Draws don't complete OTR and he bets small which looks like he is inviting you to call. I think the biggest mistake is to raise the river here. Otherwise the hand is quite ok.


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DecMate
Joined: 25.01.2009

+1 agree with lassie.
You could fold the turn.
Bet the turn bigger, aces are calling 2/3 2/3 for a split.


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mathkid
Joined: 30.03.2013

All of this looks good. Def a bit over my head but I would like to become more of a student of the game.

Perhaps trying to comment where I can on hands and articles as well as watch more videos here on the site will allow

me to hopefully, start to become a more seasoned NL player.


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Hasseman92
Joined: 18.11.2011

Thanks for the input! :f_drink:


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