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AQ bad river shove

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jimecek
Joined: 13.09.2011

PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.08/$0.16 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $16.72 (105 bb)
MP (Hero): $16.80 (105 bb)
CO: $16.08 (101 bb)
BU: $21.96 (137 bb)
SB: $33.14 (207 bb)
BB: $29.65 (185 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.24) Hero is MP with A Q
UTG raises to $0.48, Hero calls $0.48, 4 players fold

Flop: ($1.20) 3 5 Q (2 players)
UTG bets $0.53, Hero calls $0.53

Turn: ($2.26) A (2 players)
UTG bets $1.12, Hero calls $1.12

River: ($4.50) 5 (2 players)
UTG bets $5.28, Hero raises to $14.67 (all-in), UTG calls $9.31 (all-in)

Total pot: $33.68 (Rake: $1.50)

Showdown:
MP (Hero) shows A Q (two pair, Aces and Queens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 46%, Flop: 3%, Turn: 9%, River: 0%)

UTG shows 5 5 (four of a kind, Fives)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 55%, Flop: 97%, Turn: 91%, River: 100%)

UTG wins $32.18

Its close but what calling us worse ? Ak ?


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3 replies
Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

You beat indeed only AK or so, but I don’t think he would call a shove with this and he’s over betting already. I would just call here. He could bluff here and you lose against a FH+ hand.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I don't see villain playing like this and calling a river raise with anything weaker than AK (or AQ as a split). There are 8 combos of AK left. Then there are better hands: AA,QQ,33,55,A5s (7 combos).


Board: 3♥5♠Q♣ A♦ 5♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    52.63%  42.11%  10.53% { AsQh }
MP3    47.37%  36.84%  10.53% { AA, QQ, 55, 33, AQs+, A5s, AQo+ }

I did some calculations and it looks like that even with 0% fold equity you should be making profit with that shove. And if we assume villain always calls and the range is what I wrote above, then raising should have marginally higher EV than calling.


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DecMate
Joined: 25.01.2009

I don't think applying theory in an extremely uncommon spot is going to provide an accurate, solid answer to the situation at hand.

I agree with SDK, he's extremely polarized here and we can't expect worse to call with a shove. So in essence we're either raketrapping ourself vs AQ (the bottom of his range here) or value-towning ourself; either outcome is bad for us.


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