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valuebet OP OTR in position after flush completes?

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briccius
Joined: 26.06.2007

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 248.8 BB (VPIP: 14.81, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 28)
SB: 101.8 BB (VPIP: 14.81, PFR: 7.41, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 27)
BB: 73.4 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
UTG: 113.2 BB (VPIP: 4.76, PFR: 4.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 22)
Hero (MP): 338.2 BB
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 5.56, PFR: 5.56, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 20)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K♣ K♠

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.4 BB, 2 players) Q♣ 8♠ 3♠
BB checks, Hero bets 4.8 BB, BB calls 4.8 BB

Turn: (16 BB, 2 players) 3♥
BB checks, Hero bets 11.8 BB, BB calls 11.8 BB

River: (39.6 BB, 2 players) 5♠
BB checks,

Spoiler

Hero bets 29.2 BB, BB raises to 53.8 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 24.6 BB

BB shows 7♠ T♠ (Flush, Ten High)
(Pre 19%, Flop 33%, Turn 18%)
Hero shows K♣ K♠ (Two Pair, Kings and Threes)
(Pre 81%, Flop 67%, Turn 82%)
BB wins 141 BB

Should I value bet here despite the flush arriving? If I do, I need to pick a size that lets me comfortably fold to a raise while enticing Qx to call. I ended up betting too much (I think), tilting and calling a raise. Argh!


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2 replies
Marc4468
Joined: 17.12.2006

If I do, I need to pick a size that lets me comfortably fold to a raise while enticing Qx to call.

That's the point imo. I think you still have a value bet on the River although the FD arrives, because he may also call through with some Qx,8x Hands. I'd bet 1/3 ps / fold, unless i got a donkey read on him.
As played, it's hard to fold the River with nearly 5:1 odds.


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KatalonacX
Joined: 22.11.2013

OTR value bet? Of course. You can call by worse,but never raise by worse.1/3-1/2 imo.


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