[PROJECT] From Rags to Riches 2.0 (PLO10 version)

BTN: 136.2 BB (VPIP: 24.47, PFR: 16.44, 3Bet Preflop: 5.50, Hands: 538)
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 26.61, PFR: 19.60, 3Bet Preflop: 7.83, Hands: 914)
BB: 130.3 BB (VPIP: 57.21, PFR: 16.83, 3Bet Preflop: 1.10, Hands: 212)
Hero (UTG): 101.5 BB
MP: 63.1 BB (VPIP: 41.89, PFR: 11.32, 3Bet Preflop: 1.75, Hands: 271)
CO: 79.6 BB (VPIP: 19.40, PFR: 6.35, 3Bet Preflop: 0.75, Hands: 304)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6♥ 7♠ 9♦ 8♦

Hero raises to 3.5 BB, fold, CO calls 3.5 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 2.5 BB

Flop: (11 BB, 3 players) 6♣ 4♥ 8♣
BB checks, Hero bets 7.9 BB, CO calls 7.9 BB, BB calls 7.9 BB

Turn: (34.7 BB, 3 players) J♥
BB checks, Hero bets 33.2 BB, CO calls 33.2 BB, fold

River: (101.1 BB, 2 players) 9♣
Hero checks, CO checks

Hero shows 6♥ 7♠ 9♦ 8♦ (Two Pair, Nines and Eights)
(Pre 35%, Flop 74%, Turn 63%)
CO mucks K♣ 9♥ 6♦ K♥ (Two Pair, Nines and Sixes)
(Pre 65%, Flop 26%, Turn 38%)
Hero wins 96.8 BB

BTN: 7.8 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 31)
SB: 186.3 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 23.21, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 58)
BB: 50 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
UTG: 173.1 BB (VPIP: 16.73, PFR: 10.16, 3Bet Preflop: 6.23, Hands: 1,985)
MP: 701.5 BB (VPIP: 24.48, PFR: 16.51, 3Bet Preflop: 5.45, Hands: 542)
Hero (CO): 262.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♣ K♠ 5♠ 4♠

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3.5 BB, fold, SB raises to 11.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 8 BB

Flop: (24 BB, 2 players) 6♣ 7♥ 3♠
SB bets 23 BB, Hero calls 23 BB

Turn: (70 BB, 2 players) T♣
SB bets 67 BB, Hero raises to 228 BB and is all-in, SB calls 84.8 BB and is all-in

River: (373.6 BB, 2 players) 4♦

SB shows 9♦ A♥ 9♣ 8♥ (Straight, Ten High)
(Pre 44%, Flop 36%, Turn 100%)
Hero shows K♣ K♠ 5♠ 4♠ (Straight, Seven High)
(Pre 56%, Flop 64%, Turn 0%)
SB wins 358.6 BB

BTN: 154 BB (VPIP: 27.69, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 26.09, Hands: 65)
SB: 369.4 BB (VPIP: 58.80, PFR: 18.45, 3Bet Preflop: 0.96, Hands: 238)
BB: 206.1 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
UTG: 616.9 BB (VPIP: 36.49, PFR: 22.97, 3Bet Preflop: 14.81, Hands: 76)
MP: 56.9 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 35)
Hero (CO): 348.3 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♣ J♠ K♣ 5♠

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3.5 BB, BTN raises to 12 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 8.5 BB

Flop: (25.5 BB, 2 players) Q♣ 3♣ 3♠
Hero checks, BTN checks

When opponent checks back, he shouldn't have QQ or 3. QQ might check, but that's a bit unlikely. And he shouldn't have air, as that is a good board to cbet bluffs. Most likely hand is Q/overpair and/or a flushdraw.

Turn: (25.5 BB, 2 players) 9♥
Hero bets 18.3 BB, BTN calls 18.3 BB

Turn opens a gutshot along with the flushdraw for me. Decent spot to semibluff.

River: (62.1 BB, 2 players) 9♣
Hero bets 44.6 BB, BTN calls 44.6 BB

Only fullhouse opponent should have in his range is Q9. We have one 9 in our hand, so the most of his range is Q, overpair or flush. None of his range bluffs the river, but there are some flushes that will call. Plan was to barrell most of the blank rivers. When I saw his hand (pair of Kings) I just thought that if I had barreled a blank river and he would have called with Kings, it would have sucked!

Hero shows A♣ J♠ K♣ 5♠ (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 42%, Flop 45%, Turn 35%)
BTN mucks K♥ 2♠ K♦ 2♥ (Two Pair, Kings and Nines)
(Pre 58%, Flop 55%, Turn 65%)
Hero wins 144.9 BB

BTN: 176.4 BB (VPIP: 53.33, PFR: 46.67, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 15)
SB: 232.9 BB (VPIP: 68.75, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 17)
BB: 99.7 BB (VPIP: 56.90, PFR: 20.69, 3Bet Preflop: 6.45, Hands: 59)
UTG: 132.6 BB (VPIP: 23.17, PFR: 10.98, 3Bet Preflop: 3.36, Hands: 1,856)
MP: 310.9 BB (VPIP: 53.40, PFR: 36.89, 3Bet Preflop: 23.94, Hands: 208)
Hero (CO): 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♥ J♣ 9♥ A♦

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3.5 BB, BTN raises to 12 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 8.5 BB

Flop: (25.5 BB, 2 players) 5♣ 4♣ Q♦
Hero checks, BTN checks

When he checks, that pretty much removes all the hands that hit the board from his range (as he is a bit aggressive).

Turn: (25.5 BB, 2 players) K♠
Hero checks, BTN bets 24.4 BB, Hero calls 24.4 BB

Now he pots. I have checked twice to him, so my hand looks a bit weak. He is definitely bluffing here a lot. Potting doesn't make much sense, as it just looks more like "don't call!" than a valuebet.

River: (74.3 BB, 2 players) K♦
Hero checks, BTN bets 71.1 BB, Hero calls 63.6 BB and is all-in

River doesn't actually change a lot. Just makes it a bit more unlikely for him to have Kxxx. Any kind of fullhouse or AAxx can be ruled out due the earlier streets. He might have some Kxxx in his range. But the thing is that his turn pot and river pot came quite instantly. When someone does a decision quickly, it means that he didn't have to or didn't want to think about the decision. For multitablers and experienced players some decisions are so automatic that they could be done instantly. This is not that kind of a spot, so when he makes such a quick decision, there is an increased chance for that to be a bluff.

Here's why: when recreational player (one who doesn't implement strategy with minimal emotions) thinks about bluffing, it creates stress. Humans are not designed to handle stress, so when we find ourselves in a stressful situation we want to get away from it. That's why the decision is made in a haste. The more time it would take, the more it would create stress. And for a little more experienced players (who understand something about poker strategy) there is also a slight thought in the back of their head that understands that the decision might not be a good one. With fast decision, all that goes away. I am sure most of you have encountered this happening, when making a bluff. I have, a loooooot of times. ♦

BTN shows 6♦ 9♦ 6♥ T♦ (Two Pair, Kings and Sixes)
(Pre 43%, Flop 19%, Turn 13%)
Hero shows Q♥ J♣ 9♥ A♦ (Two Pair, Kings and Queens)
(Pre 57%, Flop 81%, Turn 88%)
Hero wins 192.9 BB

BTN: 98.8 BB (VPIP: 31.17, PFR: 16.21, 3Bet Preflop: 10.18, Hands: 409)
SB: 155.5 BB (VPIP: 10.26, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 39)
BB: 30.3 BB (VPIP: 37.21, PFR: 13.95, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 43)
UTG: 81.2 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
MP: 210.6 BB (VPIP: 45.10, PFR: 27.45, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 52)
Hero (CO): 288.1 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4♣ 3♥ Q♣ Q♦

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 4.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 3.5 BB

Flop: (10.5 BB, 2 players) 6♦ J♥ 3♣
UTG checks, Hero bets 7.6 BB, UTG calls 7.6 BB

Overpair is a cbet in PLO10 versus limp-caller.

Turn: (25.7 BB, 2 players) 9♦
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: (25.7 BB, 2 players) 9♥
UTG bets 12 BB, Hero calls 12 BB

I beat all the flopped 2pairs. The hands I lose to are 9xxx and overpairs. As opponent check-called flop and checked the turn that opened a lot of draws, I think the chance for a flopped set it sort of small. Although it's hardish to find hands that opponent could bluff here (besides 54xx), the sizing is also weird. For some players limp-call is KK type of hand, but those players don't bet it on the river.

So I called, and when I saw his hand I wondered what was he thinking when he called the flop. No draw, pocket 2's. If he wants to bluff, why not just raise? I think I am somewhat good in understanding how recreationals think. But this flop call (if it wasn't a misclick) is beyond my skills.

UTG shows T♥ 2♣ 2♠ A♥ (Two Pair, Nines and Twos)
(Pre 40%, Flop 24%, Turn 13%)
Hero shows 4♣ 3♥ Q♣ Q♦ (Two Pair, Queens and Nines)
(Pre 60%, Flop 76%, Turn 88%)
Hero wins 47.6 BB

BTN: 281.5 BB (VPIP: 31.62, PFR: 16.18, 3Bet Preflop: 8.20, Hands: 139)
Hero (SB): 225.3 BB
BB: 37.5 BB (VPIP: 19.90, PFR: 8.96, 3Bet Preflop: 1.25, Hands: 204)
UTG: 135.3 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 100.00, Hands: 2)
MP: 191.6 BB (VPIP: 18.43, PFR: 12.87, 3Bet Preflop: 4.58, Hands: 1,171)
CO: 64 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9♥ 9♠ Q♥ T♠

UTG raises to 3.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, BB calls 2.5 BB

Marginal call, UTG is somewhat unknown (but played 2 out of 2 hands). BB doesn't create problems as it's just another nitreg.

Flop: (10.5 BB, 3 players) 7♦ 8♦ J♥
Hero bets 7.6 BB, BB calls 7.6 BB, UTG calls 7.6 BB

Nuts with a redraw. In HU pot I would check-raise as preflop raiser would cbet it more often. But here the chance of flop going checked through is too high, so I just bet.

Turn: (33.3 BB, 3 players) 8♠
Hero bets 16 BB, fold, UTG calls 16 BB

Turn is a nasty card, but I am happy to bet-fold here. No one raises without a boat, and I don't want to give free cards to draws. Versus better players this would be a harder spot, and I would not have donked the flop in the first place.

River: (65.3 BB, 2 players) 8♥
Hero checks, UTG bets 31 BB, Hero calls 31 BB

River makes 3 of a kind to the board. So any pocket pair has a full house. It's almost impossible to get a call from worse hand here, so check is the only option. Opponent decides quickly to bet half a pot. I talked about timing tell in previous post, this is the same kind of a situation.

So TT+ beats us (and 8xxx). Thing to remember is that I bet the turn, when the board pairs. So I have J8,JJ,77 in my range. 77 died, but JJ/J8 beats his overpairs. He called the flop and turn, so it's unlikely he has TT, cos even JTTx with diamons should be a fold on the turn. JJ would have raised the turn some of the times. AA-QQ is in his range, if he has diamonds with them. Of those, would KK,QQ bet here? Even AA would often think for a while. Quick decision sort of polarizes his range to JJ/8 or a bluff. Half a pot looks also more like a bluff than a valuebet. Herocall, and dance can be started!

P.S. his turn call was pretty bad.

UTG shows 2♠ 4♦ A♦ K♠ (Three of a Kind, Eights)
(Pre 48%, Flop 38%, Turn 20%)
Hero shows 9♥ 9♠ Q♥ T♠ (Full House, Eights full of Nines)
(Pre 52%, Flop 62%, Turn 80%)
Hero wins 121.9 BB