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SH Zoom QQ, Facing River Check/Raise

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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $51 (102 bb)
BB: $121.54 (243.1 bb)
UTG: $60.87 (121.7 bb)
MP: $50.50 (101 bb)
CO: $95.21 (190.4 bb)
Hero (BTN): $73.42 (146.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q♦: Q♥:
UTG raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $3.75, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.75

Flop: ($8.25) 2♣: 2♠: 5♦: (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3.92, UTG calls $3.92

Turn: ($16.09) 2♥: (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $7.75, UTG calls $7.75

River: ($31.59) J♠: (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $12.25, UTG raises to $45.45, Hero folds

Preflop: 3betting for value. Villain is unknown, but most likelly a fishiy(er) player with this open sizing from the UTG. Plays 100/100 in just 2 hands I have on him.

Flop: In retrospection I think I should cbet a bit bigger vs assumed recreational. He will call all overpairs vs any sizing and maybe also hands like AK.

Turn: Very good card for me. Again, I think I should make a bigger size vs this player. Vs reg I think it would be fine.

River: Decided to bet 1/3 to get calls from TT-66 and maybe AK which he could call sometimes on that board. I didn't expect a raise, though. Now it's really tricky. I don't think he will come to the river without at least a pocket pair (maybe sometimes AK). He is definitelly not turning TT-66 into a bluff (or value raising) and I don't think he is bluffing AK, despite of my sizing. I believe to be against 55 and JJ almost always, sometimes slowplayed KK+. I don't think he has 2x in his preflop open raise/calling range UTG vs BTN.


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10 replies
Talisker74
Joined: 17.08.2009

I would not fold a FH here

As you mentioned villain rarely has 2x in his range...
So you are behind to 12 combos and beat the rest...
I guess you have a call here


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Originally posted by Talisker74
I would not fold a FH here

As you mentioned villain rarely has 2x in his range...
So you are behind to 12 combos and beat the rest...
I guess you have a call here

True, but does he have worse fullhouses after all the action?


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Check out "Zeebos Theorem" in this post on Poker Theorems

I congratulate you on being capable of folding this.
Although a 2 is unlikely, it isn't impossible.
More likely is AA or KK considering UTG's betting pattern.

If UTG was indeed bluffing I'm in awe.

All the best,
VS


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
Check out "Zeebos Theorem" in this post on Poker Theorems

I know for Zeebos Theorem, ofcourse, but I'm born to break theorems. :f_biggrin:


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Oh boy, this one is nasty
I would totally hate folding a full house here but we can't exclude KK+ 100%. Then some 2x hands might be possible although I think those shouldn't be in his range (but then again KK+ shouldn't be either?) 55 and JJ are still in his range. If he tries to bluff you he is crazy. And I just don't see him raising weaker full houses.

I think the fold was ok.


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Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

From my point of view it´s very thin OTR and I would just xb. You said he was unknown, if he was a fish I believe we should value bet - but I would use bigger sizing 66-TT isn´t folding vs 1/2-2/3 PSB imo. I just don´t see a reg (even the weak ones) calling here with 66-TT as your perceived range is QQ+ imo.


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ilares
Joined: 25.10.2009

bet 2/3 flop, pot turn, shove river
as played he may have soem Jx river, but not sure he raise, probably only JJ? KK AA A2s so ez fold


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Coach
LemOn36
Joined: 07.02.2009

Yeah pot's all right
I still just use half pot on flop to make his cc range wider
Turn definitely bombing you can just bet really big with everything and he's in a roough spot, it's a pretty obvious spot to do it in too so people just sigh call pocketpairs
He doesn't have any 2x (ilares might call A2s but I just fold/4bet that shit think ppl do too :P) and we have more overpairs

We don't really know if he's a donk for sure , just more likely at this point but that should make you want to bet even bigger on turn+river than the already big sizes you should use anyways


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Is our small river bet inducing action?


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mutu791
Joined: 23.07.2017

nasty one


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