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KK in MWP river hero call?

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ToddBrunson
Joined: 23.05.2010

Villain stats just 130 hands: 31/13, WTSD 26, WonSD 22, no small pot 29.
BB donkbet fold and better play this board raise? I think i block lot of sd so i called and i had 8 outs. Villain stats look i had to call river push. Maybe villain overplayed AQ or try to fold busted draw, KQ. I guess he never play push for two pairs, so only straight. But the flop raise i think villain most likely range: KQ, AQ. KJ, K10, AJ, A10.

Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players

SB: $5 (100 bb)
BB: $1.38 (27.6 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): $8.28 (165.6 bb)
UTG+2: $5.06 (101.2 bb)
MP1: $5.07 (101.4 bb)
MP2: $6.16 (123.2 bb)
MP3: $2.79 (55.8 bb)
CO: $8.38 (167.6 bb)
BTN: $6.36 (127.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K♣: K♥:
Hero raises to $0.15, 5 folds, BTN calls $0.15, SB calls $0.13, BB folds

Flop: ($0.50) J♥: Q♦: T♣: (3 players)
SB bets $0.24, Hero calls $0.24, BTN raises to $0.65, SB folds, Hero calls $0.41

Turn: ($2.04) 4♠: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.30, Hero calls $1.30

River: ($4.64) 8♠: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $3.20, Hero folds

Results:

Spoiler

$4.64 pot ($0.19 rake)
Final Board: J♥: Q♦: T♣: 4♠: 8♠:
Hero mucked K♣: K♥: and lost (-$2.10 net)
BTN mucked and won $4.45 ($2.35 net)


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4 replies
Talisker74
Joined: 17.08.2009

River fold is absolute correct
BTN played very aggressive on flop vs 2 and continued doing this on turn and river
So villain will have 2pair+

Maybe you can think to fold on turn vs this sizing
You should calculate with equilab...


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Dandiiik
Joined: 19.07.2009

Well played by pre and OTF definitely. The donk into 2 players is strong and the guy behind you seems rather passive so he shouldnt raise too much. So a call is ok I think. It is true he might be donking sth like Q9, AJ, AT and is trying to protect, in that case even raising might be an option, but you dont need to protect yourself. To a basically minraise you just cant fold. You have 25% pot odds, 8 clean outs and high implied odds since you are deep. But I have a feeling that your hand is no longer strong enough by itself and you are calling just for the pot/implied odds in case you hit a straight. I would put him on 2pair at least.

OTT you have 40% pot odds and only one more card is coming so I would fold here already. It is very likely he is not going to just check behind on the river and if you are not willing to call him down, then calling turn is not profitable in the long run.


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ToddBrunson
Joined: 23.05.2010

Yes, better way if i folded the turn. But do you not think so he played with KQos or KJos maybe AQos?


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LacsapR
Joined: 14.07.2011

I agree considering a fold OTT already - I could imagine that we have some reverse implied odds due to AK for example that villain just called pre.


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