Do we bluffcatch with QQ here?

Hi zednik44,

for me this looks a lot like a bluff. The only 3X I could maybe see in his range are A3s or 33 but thats only 3 combos which (besides 33) probably woudn't have made it after the flop, so the river-card is unlikely to have changed anything. If he had a king I think he already would have bet OTT. It's possible of course, that he might have slow-played that or even that he slowplayed something like TT or 33. I don't know if he would sacrifice one whole street of value though. After the turn card you also might have some flush- or straight-draws in your range. I don't see why he should let you realize your equity for free and safe the value-bet for the river. Also if the river bet would have been for value he probably might have bet smaller. I don't think he can expect you to call with much as you only were checking through after the flop and didn't represent a strong hand, which on the other side would give him a lot of incentive to bluff. He also might be not bluffing but overplaying something like AT or JJ, thinking, that he has you beat when you showed weakness after the flop.
I don't think, that he represents a lot of hands which would actually beat you, so it's a call for me. Going by pot-odds, you need to be right with this assumption only about 30% of the time to make the call profitable. If you'd go by MDF you should call in such situation at least 135/(135+99) = 58% of the time, to deny villain auto-profit for his bluffs. So if QQ is in the upper 58% of your river-range that should be another reason to call.

PS: I think you probably should take out the names from your hand-posts. Some people might not be happy to see their IDs published like that.

I also would catch here. You appear quite weak after you check the turn and the river so villain might be just stabbing you with a wide range.
After villain checks behind OTT, what do you think about betting small OTR?

Dunno, I like to bluff the turn (as villain) in this situation. K hits and opponent checks, why wait for the river to bluff?

As played my gut says it might be a good fold.

Originally posted by la55i
After villain checks behind OTT, what do you think about betting small OTR?

+1 for this suggestion. Now when villain goes ballistic you can safely fold.

preflop: first, i thought: the 3bet is a bit high. But you are right. 2 Opponents, and you are oop. Nearly 5x is ok.

flop: You are pfa, you have an overpair, you bet of course. Flop is not so wet, one opponent, so you could bet smaller. Pot is 3betted (and so it’s big), and you have just an overpair. If a A or K comes, you are in a difficult situation and might be glad if the pot is not too big. 0,32 should be enough.

turn: Ok, now you only have a mid pair. But does villain hold a K? I'd like to find out and bet ott. Board is dry, so half pot should be enough.

river: as played:

Originally posted by la55i
After villain checks behind OTT, what do you think about betting small OTR?

this!

I think in hindsight it would have been better to bet/fold actually. And if I check, probably call seeing as i am opening the door for him to bluff. Check folding probably seems worst of all ! haha

Originally posted by la55i
I also would catch here. You appear quite weak after you check the turn and the river so villain might be just stabbing you with a wide range.
After villain checks behind OTT, what do you think about betting small OTR?

The issue though that I thought of in the moment was "what am I getting value from?" JJ? 99? I don't really feel I can value bet the river, so is it essentially a blocker bet if we bet the river?

We would be targeting just a few hands. JJ,99 and AT if he has those. But the guy opened from MP and called a squeeze. I don't think this board hits him very well and after he checks behind OTT he looks just weak. Let's think about hands that beat us. KK+ would 4bet pre. AK might 4bet or might call. If he calls he might just fold 2 overs vs that big flop bet and if he calls that he might bet the turn when he hits. So I would say AK is very unlikely also. And if the guy doesn't raise flop with TT and checks behind OTT I have to say he is weird ♦ So what beats us?

I think our hand should be quite good here so it makes sense to make a small value bet to target those weaker pairs that could still call one small bet. In case villain has AK it is also nicer to bet 0.40$. It is a win win situation. We win something from weaker hands and we lose less to better hands if he has any. And we lose less because I think after you play it like this, what ever bet he fires at us we have to call.