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Monster draw on turn facing All in

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apollo540419
Joined: 12.03.2011

Please advise if call on the flop and turn are profitable on the long run and how you will play in my situation. Result will be updated later. Thanks everyone.

PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) - Converted at http://www.handhistoryconverter.com/

Hero (Button) ($1.86)
SB ($2.03)
BB ($2.49)
UTG ($2.41)
MP ($2)
CO ($2.98)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 8
2 folds, CO raises to $0.06, Hero calls $0.06, SB raises to $0.24, 1 fold, CO calls $0.18, Hero calls $0.18

Flop: ($0.74) K, 7, 10 (3 players)
SB bets $0.48, CO calls $0.48, Hero calls $0.48

Turn: ($2.18) 2 (3 players)
SB bets $1.31 (All-In), CO calls $1.31, Hero ???


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10 replies
Nochmals
Joined: 11.09.2009

would play it equal Sir


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TurokRider
Joined: 21.10.2011

Pre, I would play the same. On flop, I think I would shove. I could also see me fold but I don't like a call here

Turn would be a fold for me. We have deffo outs but some of them may not be clean. Bc of the call OTF, this is an ugly spot now.


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DannyHorsley
Joined: 03.12.2014

We have 15 outs giving us approx 33% chance of making our hand. We have to call $1.14 (SB has us covered) to win $5.58 meaning we need to win 20% of the time to be in profit, therefore we can call in this spot.

Correct me if I am wrong here, I haven't calculated odds in a while.


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TurokRider
Joined: 21.10.2011

You are right, clean outs would give ~ 30% and it would be a call, but given the multiway action I believe that both players have smth good. Maybe one with a set and one with a straightdraw QJ or suited gutshot AQ, maybe two pair or AK suited. Anyway, I think if the board pairs we could be in big trouble so not all heart are clean imo and a J may not be totally clean, so the 15 outs could well be only 13 or 12, making this a very close call, with rake and all...
With a shove OTF we are better off imo.


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DannyHorsley
Joined: 03.12.2014

Originally posted by TurokRider
I think if the board pairs we could be in big trouble so not all heart are clean imo and a J may not be totally clean, so the 15 outs could well be only 13 or 12, making this a very close call, with rake and all...
With a shove OTF we are better off imo.

Great point.


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DannyHorsley
Joined: 03.12.2014

Similar hand here:

888 Poker - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 101.8 BB
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 38.71, PFR: 29.03, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
UTG: 104.4 BB (VPIP: 21.35, PFR: 19.10, 3Bet Preflop: 3.70, Hands: 91)
CO: 151.8 BB (VPIP: 21.74, PFR: 11.59, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 74)
BTN: 102.6 BB (VPIP: 22.86, PFR: 18.57, 3Bet Preflop: 13.04, Hands: 71)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K♦ Q♦

fold, CO raises to 2.4 BB, fold, Hero raises to 8 BB, fold, CO calls 5.6 BB

Flop: (17 BB, 2 players) 2♦ T♣ J♦
Hero bets 10 BB, CO calls 10 BB

Turn: (37 BB, 2 players) 3♣
Hero bets 20 BB, CO raises to 133.8 BB and is all-in, Hero....


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TurokRider
Joined: 21.10.2011

I would love to get it in OTF, but OTT it's a fold for me.... such a shame for so many outs.
Mayby check/call or check/raise would have been better OTT ?


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

First hand probably close. If we need to win 20% then about 10 outs would be enough, we have 15 and all of them are not clean. Ofc we have to consider that being multiway could decrease our equity.
The second hand looks like a fold. I'm not sure if I calculated this correctly but it seems we need to win a bit over 35%? With one street left I believe our combo draw is not good enough.


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DannyHorsley
Joined: 03.12.2014

Yeah I think that you are right la55i, with my calculations, it was a very close one, leaning slightly towards a fold. However, I didn't even consider that some of my outs were not clean, for example another 3 or T would have paired the board, strengthening his range with sets. Also a 9 or 8 of clubs may not have been great either.


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MatoStar
Joined: 22.07.2017

The first hand is close, but still is a call. I would recommend to play with full stack.
The second hand: our hand is strong, so I don't like the bet/fold move. Rather do x/shove OTT.
Maybe we can x/r already OTF.


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