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(FR) 88 - middle set vs push OTT

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pguest
Joined: 01.04.2009

$0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players

UTG+1: 117 BB (VPIP: 30.30, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 3.70, Hands: 66)
Hero (MP): 100 BB
MP+1: 108.2 BB (VPIP: 9.41, PFR: 7.16, 3Bet Preflop: 2.45, Hands: 1,035)
MP+2: 143.6 BB (VPIP: 17.85, PFR: 15.21, 3Bet Preflop: 7.01, Hands: 500)
CO: 96.2 BB (VPIP: 58.82, PFR: 14.71, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 34)
BTN: 180.2 BB (VPIP: 19.45, PFR: 12.95, 3Bet Preflop: 2.60, Hands: 1,811)
SB: 100.4 BB (VPIP: 10.23, PFR: 7.95, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 266)
BB: 75.8 BB (VPIP: 15.63, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 32)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 10.83, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 120)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 8♥ 8♠
fold, fold, Hero raises to 4.4 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 4.4 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (10.2 BB, 2 players) 2♠ T♦ 8♦
Hero bets 6.8 BB, CO calls 6.8 BB

Turn: (23.8 BB, 2 players) 9♣
Questions:

Spoiler

Too nit? Should I have called?

Hero bets 12.8 BB, CO raises to 85 BB and is all-in, fold

CO wins 46.6 BB


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3 replies
Talisker74
Joined: 17.08.2009

You should make a hand analysis with equilab here
Pur villain on a range look at your equity ans run some math to see if calling is +ev in the Long run


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I'm at work atm so difficult to work on this but my guess would be that it is close. Villain could have 22 or T9s sometimes. He could also have some straights in which case you have 10 outs. If I calculated correctly you need to win 37% of the time. So just open equilab and give villain some hands and see how you are doing.


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Shurikk
Joined: 21.05.2014

So just open equilab and give villain some hands and see how you are doing.

The problem is we need o have some info on our villain, because if we remove top-doper from his range our equity folds under the calling limit...

So, against typical NL25-50 i'd bet turn bigger (2/3 pot) to have better odds if he decides to push (and definitely call it).
Against VPIP: 58.82, PFR: 14.71, - the same: 2/3 turn (or even near potbet) and call. (34 hands is too small sample, but VPIP 60 is enough to understand this decision _ugly: )


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