Skip to forum
Please Help Me Prov...
 
Notifications
Clear all

[Closed] Please Help Me Prove Something Insane...

90 Posts
11 Users
19 Reactions
10.2 K Views
yadijavadi
Joined: 31.01.2018

Hey Guys. I'm wondering whether you can help me prove something real important I stumbled across whilst writing an exploitative theory book...

Over 5 years I mapped out all poker theory into "The Levels of Thought". For example, Value = Level Two. Once this task was finally complete, I realised that these Levels make up a rational thought-process that is built into everyones mind and is used by everyone to make all decisions. The only reason you, and everyone else, isnt consciously aware of these Levels is because everyone is suffering from something similar to cognitive dissonance. The rational thought-process conflicts with trusted irrational plays in your mind. This then causes the mind to reject any new information related to these Levels.

I've been trying to explain this to players for a long time now, but when I come to explain to any experienced player how these levels work their mind rejects the information. Their mind discredits the information to stop themselves from realising how to use the Levels, so as to protect the trust in these imperfect strategies.

I can prove that this is happening. I can prove it to anyone who is not suffering from this problem atleast. Look to this link and pay close attention to how they describe Level Four.

https://www.pokernews.com/strategy/multiple-level-thinking-in-poker-19458.htm

It says specifically, "To think at Level Four you need to consider what you think the opponent thinks you think he holds". This is crazy twisted nonsense. The person who wrote it doesnt realise, but he is trying to make this Level sound real complicated. Real difficult to use. He says that only the elite think and this Level, and so you need not worry about it... Right... Now... Check this out. Whilst working on that project I realised that "What I think he thinks I think he holds", is exactly the same as, "what he is pretending to hold". Work it out for yourself. I am right. So why am I the first to realise it??

Everyone in the poker world is suffering from this same thing. What they are really saying is that "only the elite can think about what their opponent is pretending to hold" Which is madness. "He is bluffing" = Level Four logic. This level isnt only for the elite. Everyone uses this level all the time.

What this means to the poker world is huge. Firstly, a beginner can easily learn to do what only a master could do previously. But more importantly, GTO is an imperfect strategy. It's well known that GTO sucks the potential for profit from the table but nobody realises that it also causes this psychological problem! Trusting in this unbeatable strategy causes everyone to block their conscious ability to exploit, which only leads to them using GTO loads!!! Which spells disaster for the poker tables.

This is causing a massive decline in Poker, but in the grand scheme of things, that's nothing. I have read economic textbooks which say that those who use the equivilant of an exploitative strategy are arrogant fools. Economists relentlessly promote what they call optimal, GTO, plays. Everyone does it, and when I try to explain to them what is happening they all go mental. Their mind twists up the logic. They blame me, saying that I'm twisting everything around. They attack me as a person. They get angry and walk quickly away.

After studying buddhist texts I think this could well be the cause of all mental distress. And, to solve the problem, all you need to do is consciously recognise how the levels really work in your game. I have mapped it out for Poker, (you can have a free PDF if im allowed to give them out?). I found the problem and the solution but I am sat alone at home on my computer trying everything I can to get the information out there with very little success.

I dont know if anyone here can help, but if you are in a position of influence in the poker world, please do think about what I'm saying here. Think about that evidence. If you are a beginner, and someone of influence in the poker world, or anyone with experience, starts discrediting my logic on this thread or starts attacking me as a person, please can you help me explain this very simple logic to them. I'm at a loss. I cant do this on my own. Any help is much appreciated.

Hey, errm, pretty much every single person reading this will be suffering from this problem a little. If you know nothing about poker you will not suffer in regards to Poker, I will be able to explain exactly how to use these levels and you will grasp it easily. But when you come to think how these levels might work in real life you are almost certainly going to think up some irrational reason why what I am saying is nonsense. You might laugh it off and call me crazy, you might get angry and think me some sly salesman, you might start talking about some flaw in the logic. There is no flaw. I made $180,000 playing 6max over 2 years when I stopped to work on this. My brother had a poker school. I know what I'm talking about. So if you doubt it, please dont accuse me of being wrong, please dont laugh etc, just explain to me where you think the problem is and I will explain it to you. I think that piece of evidence is solid. So please try to point your problems towards that, if you think I'm mad, please explain why I am the first to realise that at level four we consider what the opponent is pretending to hold.


89 replies
TyCobb
Joined: 30.03.2006

In the other threat you wrote, that you released a book called "The Levels". I didnt find it on the Internet. Can you provide, where to find it?

And maybe your screenname/ your name would help to find it.


yadijavadi
Joined: 31.01.2018

This book did take a huge amount of effort, it only came out this year, and I would love to sell copies, but, this stuff is too important to keep to myself. So here is a free link to the PDF

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ogF_GojisAy5LcRGS2KVrf3jVoMluTqz/view?usp=sharing

And here is a link incase you want a hard copy.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1527211711?pf_rd_p=d1f45e03-8b73-4c9a-9beb-4819111bef9a&pf_rd_r=MZYKDE6CQBFCNYTDSHE1

(Mods, please dont ban me for this post. I'm not here to sell books.)


I think the optimal strategy in a tournament or in cash game is defined by momentum or if you prefer by the meta-game as well as the different players styles and their respective positions.
In CG i believe that if everyone was playing the same way only the house would win on the long run and all players would be breakeven. But even using GTO or ICM for Sngs peoples are
human beeings and will still make mistakes or deviate from what they believe is a perfect strategy. What i believe is that there is no perfect strategy in poker since it is a game of unknowns.
Of course strategies , maths , psychology can help you to win more than you loose but wont prevent you from experience huge downswings no matter the game you play in.
Obviously i'm not enough experienced to say it as a statement but it is just my humble opinion.

Best of Skills and Luck @ Tables,
J-C.


yadijavadi
Joined: 31.01.2018

This idea of GTO being a perfect strategy is what makes it extremely trustworthy. It is an unbeatable strategy, and again, this makes it ridiculously trustworthy. It's all this trust that makes learning GTO disastrous for the mind. If you already understand how the levels work you are free to learn GTO without any adverse side effects. But, if you do not know how they work,, you will lose your natural ability to strategize.

That book acts like a vaccination, it teaches you how the levels works in poker so that you are free to use GTO.

You are right, there is no perfect strategy for Poker. Theoretically you can see what this perfect strategy would be like but it's impossible to actually concoct it. The perfect strategy is not GTO. The only time GTO is the perfect strategy is if the opponent is using GTO.


To me GTO is only perfect if you play it perfectly against perfect modelized opponents.
But let's say everybody at a CG Table use GTO in a perfect way , will they make money ? On a short period the ones with the best dealt Cards will but on the long run they will be BreakEven at best.
GTO is optimised against specific opponents models but if everyone use GTO it becomes GTO vs GTO it's non-sens , only the casino will win with the rake and all other players will be Breakeven if
we don't take into account the Rakes , if we do they will all loose or have a minus profits coming from a RakeBack exclusively. Again i can be totally wrong about my assumptions but if
everybody plays perfectly i don't think anyone can really win on the long run. That's where table selection comes into account for CG players. For SNGs it's a bit more complicated to be selective
and even beeing selective won't necessary asssure you more profits. GTO and ICM are still very interesting to atleast understand and comprehend. For exemple let's say someone apply ICM to the letter.
It's pretty easy to know his ranges of Push / Fold / Call according the his position , stack size and remaining players ... so you can have an edge by tighting up or loosing up what ICM would advise you to do. I Think for GTO it's a bit the same , against a pro GTO if you know the strategy he will use then you are more likely on a good way to be able to exploit it. Of course if you seeking proofs of concepts i cannot help you much there, i'm just a neophyte trying to improve myself @ Turbo Micro Sngs but i think it makes sens that way.

Kind Regards,
J-C.


Constantin11
Joined: 16.08.2012

I'm a little bit of a skeptic here regarding "The Levels of Thought" for reasons I won't bother to mention, but by no means I am implying that they have no value or use. Also I'll be a fool to implicitly discredit an idea just because it diverges from my current system of ideas that I might employ into a particular area of life.

So with this in mind I'll read your book for a nice challenge thanks to your generosity, cause the original post honestly is pretty vague and doesn't tell me anything concrete except the fact that some of the arguments you employ to state your case are a little bit shaky.

Thanks!


i think you can resume a bit at a charicatural side the level of thinking with SHi-FU-Mi.
First you show a hand that is most likely to win , Then you think about the hand your opponent is most likely to show and adjust to it
and then you think about the hand your opponent believes you will show and he will adjust to by adjusting yourself ....
The more complicated the thinking will become the more mistakes you probably gonna do.
It's like Arabic Phone, you repeat a message to someone , who repeat the message to someone else , who repeat .... at the end the message is totally differenty and empty of substance.

PS: In the 3rd scenario it's better to revert to the first level of of thinking or second one , you will do less mistakes based on bad assumptions.


TJtheTJ
Joined: 12.10.2011

I think this might lead to some interesting discussion, but I'm still not entirely sure what your point is... As mentioned above, the opening post is rather vague and it's hard to figure out what it is you're trying to say exactly. Could you maybe make a short post and summarize your case, your arguments and your conclusion? I'd then be happy to agree or disagree and see if we can maybe spark some further discussion here :)

From what I can tell it's about exploitative play vs GTO play and levels of thought, so if you could be a bit more to the point and clear I'd be happy to discuss this further.


TyCobb
Joined: 30.03.2006

Sry bro but im out:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15/poker-theory/importance-pre-adjusting-1520461/index3.html

Ur obv. Yadoula8 and writing things like:

"I think it will be hailed as the greatest strategy book of all time. 😎" (#56)

And this is 3 Years old.

And from this:

http://mymathforum.com/math/53057-game-theory-defeated.html

"I think Game Theory is the primary cause of all the worlds current problems"


Constantin11
Joined: 16.08.2012

Originally posted by TyCobb
Sry bro but im out

Damn, I was already saying that his arguments from the original post might sound compelling only to an undiscerning mind without trying to offend anyone, but what you posted got me even more wary.
Maybe a short post to summarize the case, arguments and conclusion would be nice as TJtheTJ suggested. If that's solid I'm sure some will be enticed to read the entire book and it'll generate some nice discussion around here. Cause the forums are a bit dead for some time, and constructive discussions are nice :)


TJtheTJ
Joined: 12.10.2011

Couldn't agree more with the above :)


yadijavadi
Joined: 31.01.2018

Sure I'll bullet-point for you...

The Levels of Thought make up a rational thought-process that is built into everyones mind and is used by everyone to make all their decisions.

Trusting in irrational strategies, like GTO (unless the opponent is using GTO it is an irrational strategy), causes confliction in the mind and something similar to cognitive dissonance is experienced.

With everyone blocking the conscious ability to use these Levels, they turn to GTO far more than is needed. This is causing a massive decline in the poker market. Similarly, I suspect the same issue is causing a massive decline in our economic world.


la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Hmm this thread again.. You posted one 6 months ago too.

I didn't read this thread but if I remember correctly, you were very intelligent and your thinking was so brilliant that we mere mortals couldn't understand it. I'm looking forward to reading that book. Hopefully it will give me some clarity.


yadijavadi
Joined: 31.01.2018

... Well, the sufferers are coming out of the woodwork.

Please note that the people discrediting the information struggled to make any sense of the original post and did not use any rational arguments to say why it makes no sense.

- I do think that Game Theory OPTIMAL is the primary cause of the worlds problems, as I partially explained in the original post. I dont see why this detracts from my logic.

- I don't think this is compelling only for the discerning mind. As you didnt provide any reasoning or evidence it is hard to argue against. Please do explain.

- I was quite proud of linked post at 2+2 from 5 years ago called "The importance of pre-adjusting". Looking back, it is not written very well, but I did take on all the regs and mods at 2+2. I do think I won the debate.

- I do think that my book is the greatest strategy book of all time. It took about 100,000 drafts to write, and so it doesnt read very smoothly. However, I do point out the flaws in Sun Tzu's and Sklanskys books. Mine serves its purpose better than theirs.

- I dont think me a genius. I'm just a reg who spend 5 years thinking about 1 individual poker decision.


la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Okay I skimmed through your book.
I'm actually writing a poker book myself at the moment and I think there is one thing you could help me with. Even though I would write well and have a good content, I do write very short texts. I have noticed this many times in school. I could get max points from my writings even though I have wrote half of what my fellow students wrote. You seem to master the skill of writing lorem ipsum but do it in a beautiful way, how do you do that?

The first 30 pages were just some Buddha and Einstein. Then you explained some of the rules and how draws and hand strengths work. Also some odds and outs. And in the end those were not very clearly explained. I would say it is easier for a beginner to just read a few articles here at PokerStrategy instead of reading the first 60 pages of this book.

6 months ago I told you that "So you just re-invented the wheel and made it sound like a formula giving superhuman powers".. I still do think so. Your levels are clearly the steps a beginning poker player takes on his journey to get better. First it is our hand vs the hand villain is likely holding. Then we start thinking in ranges. Start taking boards into account. Start thinking about equity retention, blockers, pot odds, win chances.

Then the later levels are basically what we call levelling.

The expressions levelling or to level derive from the concept of level thinking. At the poker tables this means that before you choose an action, you try to think on the level of your opponent in order to figure out what impression the action will give him. You basically think about what he might be thinking.

You can of course continue this and come up with an infinite number of levels - "what does he think that I think that he thinks that I think…" and so on. This is referred to as second level thinking, third level thinking, etc.

So eventually, I do think that this book is a very complex presentation of a very basic thing. I do not disagree with what you wrote. But I struggle to see the point.

Actually there was one thing that I thought was curious. You said that on some level we can choose to play only stronger hands that villain's range is. How does that work on the blinds?


metalmonkey80
Joined: 15.08.2013

@la55i Dam your a quick reader la55i!! I am still on page 30 and kinda feeling a bit sleepy. I might just have a afternoon nap :sifflote: If I ever write a book you will be the first person I come to for a editorial eye :f_thumbsup:


Constantin11
Joined: 16.08.2012

Originally posted by yadijavadi
Sure I'll bullet-point for you...

The Levels of Thought make up a rational thought-process that is built into everyones mind and is used by everyone to make all their decisions.

Trusting in irrational strategies, like GTO (unless the opponent is using GTO it is an irrational strategy), causes confliction in the mind and something similar to cognitive dissonance is experienced.

With everyone blocking the conscious ability to use these Levels, they turn to GTO far more than is needed. This is causing a massive decline in the poker market. Similarly, I suspect the same issue is causing a massive decline in our economic world.

I'd just recommend you to dive into the study of metacognition to gradually cast away the stench this bullshit is leaving, but I'm no asshole to say dat. Oh, wait...


yadijavadi
Joined: 31.01.2018

Lol some creative slating there...

I notice some inconsistencies in your reviews. One person saying its nonsense.. The next says its all correct, but is a complicated way to write something very simple.

Which it is? Nonsense, or just the basics?

You say you dont understand the point of the book but I would have thought that much would be clear. It is a book that teaches all the fundamental theory for Poker. This book is just the basics, and so kudos to the Mods. You say it's the same old stuff written in a different way, but there is some new stuff in there. For instance, I explain Level Four way more clearly than any before me. I explain that at this Level we consider what the opponent is pretending to hold. I also explain how to use this Level alongside the others, which has never been done before. I'm pretty sure no book ever explained pre-adjusting before. And as far as I know, the fact that GTO is Level Infinity was discovered by me too.

What makes this book great is not the individual factors related to poker. Its the organisation of those factors. If you read it carefully you will see that I have outlined all the rules of these Levels so that a strategist who is not a poker player can easily transfer the logic over to their own game. Nobody before me even realised that value was Level Two. Nobody realised that Level Two is defensive and Level Three offensive. Nobody before me realised that each new Level enhances the Level's before it. These things may not seem massively important to ones such as you Mods as I'm sure you understand almost every point I made in the book. However, a strategist in a different game can use these same rules to map out all the strategic theory for their own game.

Mods, you say that nothing I wrote is new. But what about the evidence I have mentioned about a thousand times? I was the first to realise that what I think he thinks I think he holds is simply "what he is pretending to hold". I'm sure you can see that this is a far simpler was to understand Level Four. That development is somewhat profound, right? I think I read an article on this site once that said Level Four is only for masters. Surely you now realise that, thanks to my book, you were all wrong?


@ yadijavadi
Something is a bit bothering me. I'm certainly not a genius or a poker specialist. But how can you define GTO as level infinity ?
Wich scientific process , facts and samples of data in real life / online lead you to that conclusion ?
No offense in my questions , i am simply curious about it.