[Closed] Quiz of the Week: Bronze Graduation Exam

I actually think Q11 is quite questionable as well. Just because we dont intend to fold if villain shoves does not mean that shoving ourselves becomes the only viable course of action.

We hold as many as 18 outs (9 diamonds, 3 extra tens, 3 aces, 3 kings), with at least 10 clean (lose aces vs AQ, lose kings, 9D QD vs QQ JJ 22). This still doesnt make shoving the best action, it just means we possibly have equity to call to a shove. Even though BU is in steal position and has a wide open raise range, how wide is their range to call 3bet then flat call 2QJ flush draw flop?

Again I think its a question of players and limits. Perhaps many more players call 3bet, call cbet, all with intent to float on higher limits? It is incredibly rare on bronze limits and the players that do it do it every single hand, so reading them isnt exactly difficult.

Given that we are on a draw rather than a made hand and have nothing to protect, by direct shoving we turn our hand into a bluff-with-outs. Id much rather see if we couldnt get a free / cheap card here, and there is no way that playing check-call to shove is infinity times worse (0 vs 3) than shoving directly. If shove is 3, check-call is at least 2.

I really do think Q11 and Q1 answers here are simply not appropriate to typical bronze NL5-10 opponents.

You're committed in that spot, the money's going in anyway. Now I'd rather put it in myself and have an additional possibility of winning the pot unimproved than check and hope for the opponent to do the same as I wait for help on the river. And if river is a blank, what then? Check-fold with the pot bigger than our stack?

If you get a free river and its a blank you get to fold and save yourself 60 big blinds. You really would shove air "just because the pot is bigger than our stack"?

I certainly wouldn't call a shove with air when my hand doesn't improve on the river. And it's already an 80bb pot on the turn. It is not given that villain thought about the fact that his call on the flop committed him, he might have called $6 on the flop but it doesn't mean he's willing to put in another $15 at all times, we might make hands like AJ or KQ fold. And in case of a call, we have outs for a straight, a flush and probably one of our overcards. If you check, the opponent might put you on exactly what you have - AK, and put the money in himself if he realizes he's committed too. AK has no showdown value here, but there's still initiative, outs and fold equity, so I'd go for that push.

Would you agree though that check-call (0 points) is not a 100% worse option than shoving directly (3 points)?

You've achieved a total of 28 out of 28 possible points. This corresponds to 100 %!

SH is my kind of game ♦

Originally posted by Jaissica
Would you agree though that check-call (0 points) is not a 100% worse option than shoving directly (3 points)?

No to passive. Your dead on the river if you do not hit and if you do hit you get no more money.

2 overs and nuts flush draw is always push on whatever street, you goto get the money in.

I count the hand as a "all-in flop" no matter what happens so will always push turn since I wanted the money in on the flop already.

There are only slight exceptions due to board texture, for example it pairs and somehow I know for sure villain has FH or trips now.

A shovable monster draw on the flop is very rarely still a shove hand on a blank turn... for example, standard 2bet/called pot 87s flops Ao56s, you bet pot and get just-called, turn 2o, what now? You dont have >50% equity vs TPTK anymore, and bet-shove becomes more than our hand is worth.

Ive always found the misapplication of call equity taken out of context and applied to bet equity to be very strange. Lets say we hold 15 outs, or 33% equity (villain holds AQ/KK, so our outs are any king/ace (depending on villain hand), any ten, any diamond for a total of 15). 15 outs is 33%, or close enough to.

Now we bet our $15 with a 33% expectation of winning, so our expected return on our $15 bet is only $10 (average loss $5). The pot does not matter here because by not betting you do not relinquish it. All you relinquish is any fold equity you might have had.

BUT in the same situation where we are calling we can include the pot ($20) in our value calculation, as folding cedes the pot. 33% of the time we call the same $15 to win a total of $50. Our expected return on our $15 call is $16.67, making a call +EV.

Now, to make this a +EV shove against AQo/KK via fold equity, we need villain to be able to fold TPTK / overpair often enough to make up for the average loss of $5 by shoving when called. Given the pot stands at $20, villain needs to fold more than 20%. 4 times lose $5, one time win $20 is BE.

I sincerely doubt we have anywhere near 20% fold equity vs AQo/KK in this situation... and this is against a hand we probably hope the villain holds.

I say again, as we are drawing we have nothing to protect, and by betting we turn our hand into nothing more than a bluff with outs. Check-call is the most mathmatically correct line unless the villain has a significant chance to fold to our shove (20%+) OR unless villain is almost never checking behind / betting small.

Vs complete unknown on NL25 I absolutely doubt we have fold equity or are facing a weaker unmade hand. At absolute best we have 18 outs vs something very dumb like TT / QT / 88.

Check-call 4tmath.

Edit - even QT we drop 3 more outs, because if a river K hits villain makes K high...

I'm a fish ♦

Jaissica's post actually makes a lot of sense to me.

well that was interesting but bit easy, agree with all suggested answers in the quiz (by the way, I made 1 mistake and also answered check-call on that spot with draw on turn, but it's just because I was not attentive about remaining stack, for such small remaining stacks I would push as an agressor against unknown or tag; so, taking into account bluff induction especially if opponent is LAG or likes floating, may be check-call is not so bad also, may be 1 point?).

I made 28/28

Originally posted by Jaissica
Now we bet our $15 with a 33% expectation of winning, so our expected return on our $15 bet is only $10 (average loss $5). The pot does not matter here because by not betting you do not relinquish it. All you relinquish is any fold equity you might have had.

BUT in the same situation where we are calling we can include the pot ($20) in our value calculation, as folding cedes the pot. 33% of the time we call the same $15 to win a total of $50. Our expected return on our $15 call is $16.67, making a call +EV.

Thinking this way check/call is always better than betting - no matter what we hold, no matter what the board looks like, no matter how big the pot is and so on.

Let's assume we hold AQ in this spot and think your way. We have a made hand and we think we have 80% chance to win the pot. We bet 15 with 80% (it doesn't really matter - it's just a number) expectancy of winning and our supposed return is 0.8*30 = 24$. Now by check/calling we have 50*0,8=40$. Damn, what an increase! Betting is never correct!

You just can't discard the pot once but then include it in your calculation. What sense does it make?

It doesnt make sense because you have essentially butchered the math.

Lets say we are the villain holding AQo here. We have a 66% chance to win the pot, so we bet our last $15. Our EV on our $15 bet, assuming it is called by the hero who holds AdKd, is $20. So villain bets with a +EV.

On the other hand, hero holds a 33% chance to win the pot. Chance villain will fold AQo here is essentially zero. If the hero bets $15 he bets with a negative EV of -$5.

It would be a mistake for villain to not bet because villain can bet with a +EV. It would be a mistake for hero to not call as hero can call with a +EV. This is the math of drawing poker - even though its correct to call, you are still losing.

Regarding EV, when betting you ignore the current pot because checking does not surrender the current pot. When calling you count the current pot because folding surrenders the current pot. If you are still confused, there isnt alot more I can think of to clear the air for you.

This is if he holds AQ..... one hand... out of a hand range.

Its much deeper then this you know... villain most probably does not hold AQ if he just calls flop, hence shoving is the correct play.

What your saying still makes no sense. I don't like it when people go... well if I push its -EV, but if I call its +EV. The money goes in either way so the outcome is exactly the same.

Purposely making the odds mathematically right for you does not make it a better play. It just justifies the play in your mind that you made a +EV move when in truth shoving or calling is the same thing in situations like these. And being aggressive is better.

I prefer FE over EV any day in marginal situations. Who says he won't lay down AQ? Some players do.

This whole disregarding the pot because you bet is not right.

If I bet 1$ into 2$ and villain calls its the same thing as if I call 1$ in a 3$ pot. This is the whole principle behind semi bluffs. We bet in such a way that if villain calls we get good odds for our draws.

$0.1/$0.2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG TheRedPainter ($8.18)
UTG+1 chaz111 ($4.60)
CO TTR100504282 ($20.16)
BTN Hariolf2 ($23.42)
SB BoldonDan79 ($19.90)
BB Hero ($45.82)

Pre-flop: ($0.30, 6 players) Hero is BB A♥ Q♥
1 fold, chaz111 raises to $0.60, TTR100504282 calls $0.60, Hariolf2 calls $0.60, BoldonDan79 calls $0.50, Hero raises to $4.50, chaz111 folds, TTR100504282 calls $3.90, Hariolf2 folds, BoldonDan79 folds

Flop: 5♥ 2♥ 8♣ ($10.80, 2 players)
Hero bets $7, TTR100504282 calls $7

Turn: 5♠ ($24.80, 2 players)
Hero bets $34.32, TTR100504282 calls $8.66

River: A♠ ($67.78, 2 players)

Final Pot: $67.78

How else to play this?

The money goes in either way so the outcome is exactly the same

Wrong. There is a far higher chance of villain checking behind than folding in the Q11 3-bet pot. Unless villain is a complete maniac blind-war player, which we cannot say with no read and can therefor assume not, villain has to have some kind of hand here.

So fold equity is essentially zero, but chance of a check behind? Who knows. Medium made hands might check behind for pot control, made monsters might even check behind on some kind of idiot slowplay line.

There is a far higher chance of this than folding someone off a hand in a 3bet pot where they raised, called 3bet preflop, called flop. So, check and hope for a free or cheaper card is the correct action. We are checking and hoping the villain makes a mistake, this is true, and we only profit from the situation IF the villain makes a mistake, but by shoving with no fold equity we are not only not letting the villain make a mistake, we are making the mistake ourselves. Its like pre-emptively misplaying. "Im not going to let you screw up because im going to screw up first!". Interesting philosophy.

In the situation you posted the point of misplay is on the flop. Villain did not have enough money after calling a reasonable flop bet to make a decent bet or call a decent bet on the turn, so the correct action would be to cbet in such a way as to put the villain all-in (bet $15.66, not unreasonable for a $10.80 pot), or check-call/fold according to draw odds.

The reason why betting out to put the villain all-in is correct here is because we have very high fold equity on the flop, while we have next to no fold equity on the turn in the Q11 situation. Just because we think the villain will "probably" shove is no reason to shove a draw ourselves if we think the villain cannot fold.

Originally posted by Jaissica
It doesnt make sense because you have essentially butchered the math.

I applied the same method of calculation as you did.

Regarding EV, when betting you ignore the current pot because checking does not surrender the current pot. When calling you count the current pot because folding surrenders the current pot. If you are still confused, there isnt alot more I can think of to clear the air for you.

I bet to win the whole pot - not just the amount the villain has still left in his stack.

Why don't we have a vote on whether to c/call or push on the turn on Q11.

Check call gets my vote

Check call - 1
Push - 0

Radyan, your comment is only correct where you have fold equity. if you have no fold equity then you dont "bet to win the whole pot" because your bet has no effect at all on if you will or wont win the existing pot.

Shadow, I dont know if its an either-or situation. I think both approaches can be considered and that both should have been worth at least some degree of score in the quiz.

I would happilly argue all day that check-call is 3 and shoving 2.

good quiz

You've achieved a total of 28 out of 28 possible points. This corresponds to 100 %!

28/28