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1,5$ | HU HyperTurbo | 3 barrels all in with air

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mmandm
Joined: 07.04.2012

PokerStars - 20/40 NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 11.52 BB (VPIP: 63.16, PFR: 5.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
Hero (SB): 13.47 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7♥ J♠

Hero calls 0.5 BB, BB checks

Flop: (2 BB, 2 players) 5♣ 4♠ 3♠
BB checks, Hero bets 1 BB, BB calls 1 BB

Turn: (4 BB, 2 players) T♥
BB checks, Hero bets 2.67 BB, BB calls 2.67 BB

River: (9.35 BB, 2 players) Q♠
BB checks, Hero bets 8.8 BB and is all-in, BB calls 6.85 BB and is all-in

Spoiler

Hero shows 7♥ J♠ (High Card, Queen)
(Pre 63%, Flop 22%, Turn 9%)
BB shows 4♣ 5♥ (Two Pair, Fives and Fours)
(Pre 37%, Flop 78%, Turn 91%)
BB wins 23.05 BB

Hey guys, what do you think about this hand? I was thinking that i can bet him out of pot, especially when turn and river cards should be scary for him.

In this kind of games most are vs random with no reads. Should i just bet flop and give up?


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9 replies
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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Based on his stats he's a fish and I would only try to steal the pot on the flop.
I doubt he will ever fold on turn or river if you have a change you deal with a player that doesn't know the fold button.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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mmandm
Joined: 07.04.2012

I think i'm miscalculating a lot fishes fold equity...

I have to work hard to eliminate this leak. Thanks!


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CptJokerFish
Joined: 06.06.2017

If you make a big bluff and your opponent calls with two-pair then you dont need to worry. You can start to worry if he calls with bottom-pair because in this case bluffing would be terrible because you dont have enough fold equity. So you should analyze this hand and checkout his calling and folding range.

Btw. GTO barrels also all three streets and shove river. Well played mmandm.

Use this equation to find out how much fold equity you need:
risk / ( risk + reward ) * 100

Example:
8,8bb / ( 8,8bb + 9,35bb) * 100 = 48.48% fold equity for a break-even bluff.
If your opponent folds more than 48.48% of his range then you win money.

The good thing is that you block FD and straight combos on river. So its less likely that your opponent has the nuts.


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DrunkDonk
Joined: 19.04.2019

Originally posted by SDK1987
Based on his stats he's a fish and I would only try to steal the pot on the flop.
I doubt he will ever fold on turn or river if you have a change you deal with a player that doesn't know the fold button.

Cheers,
SDK1987

It's hard to say for sure based on ~20 hands sample isn't it? But very likely passive fish in the announcement :) @mmandm hope you are writing some notes on your opponents, it will be much easier for you to play vs them next time.


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Coach
maniac
Joined: 29.03.2006

Originally posted by CptJokerFish

Btw. GTO barrels also all three streets and shove river.

Where do you get infos like this? Imo if you tripple barrel stuff like this you just spew away chips in the long run. The reason is simple loose passive guys are likely to be calling station. According to that, the chances of him calling wide enough to make such plays profitable is pretty high. Imo this is a play who you can maybe do if he is to passive. I think sdks answeris fine.

greets

maniac


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CptJokerFish
Joined: 06.06.2017

Originally posted by maniac

Originally posted by CptJokerFish

Btw. GTO barrels also all three streets and shove river.

Where do you get infos like this? Imo if you tripple barrel stuff like this you just spew away chips in the long run. The reason is simple loose passive guys are likely to be calling station. According to that, the chances of him calling wide enough to make such plays profitable is pretty high. Imo this is a play who you can maybe do if he is to passive. I think sdks answeris fine.

greets

maniac

I have solved this spot with a GTO solver but it makes sense to tripel barrel this combo.
Because you block 76 and flush draws usually people call tighter as GTO would do so that makes the play even better.

Here is the solution:

For a bigger screenshot use this link:

You can see that GTO shoves shoves only the J7 combos with a spade.

This is what the BB should call accordingly to GTO against the river shove:


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Coach
maniac
Joined: 29.03.2006

whats the name of this solver?

greets

maniac


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CptJokerFish
Joined: 06.06.2017

GTO+


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tonypmm
Joined: 11.01.2009

I don't own GTO+ yet, but this runout is one of the few on which I'd have the balls to triple-barrel AI. Even if Villain likes to play FDs passively, there's a high chance that they'd donk the river if they had the flush. A substantial part of their range for flatting the flop and turn are K6, K2, 4x, 3x, occasional Ax that c/f river, and we need just 43% fold equity vs better hands.

It's a bit surprising that GTO+ wants to check back the river with spadeless J7 some of the time (not all the time anyway!). I don't think Villain would flat the turn with Tx or the flop with 5x as often as in GTO.


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