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tp tk river bet fold or check/fold

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ToddBrunson
Joined: 23.05.2010

Against loser reg can i call here? Or after i beted the turn maybe he choose just call sets? Maybe afraid straight or higher sets? Or KcQc, AcKc? This bet cry me to call but i think most of time is behind here. I think villain here never will straight, because beted half or more if have got Q10 or 78.

Seat 5 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( $8.66 USD ) - VPIP: 19, PFR: 12, 3B: 4, AF: 1,4, Hands: 1297
Seat 3: Player3 ( $5.21 USD ) - VPIP: 25, PFR: 16, 3B: 3, AF: 1,2, Hands: 20673
Seat 4: Player4 ( $5.03 USD ) - VPIP: 22, PFR: 17, 3B: 2, AF: 3,2, Hands: 152
Seat 5: Player5 ( $5.95 USD ) - VPIP: 22, PFR: 13, 3B: 3, AF: 1,5, Hands: 2323
Seat 6: Player6 ( $5.00 USD ) - VPIP: 13, PFR: 11, 3B: 5, AF: 2,4, Hands: 4106
Seat 7: Player7 ( $5.00 USD ) - VPIP: 13, PFR: 12, 3B: 5, AF: 3,1, Hands: 45550
Seat 8: Player8 ( $9.96 USD ) - VPIP: 29, PFR: 18, 3B: 1, AF: 1,9, Hands: 370
Seat 9: Hero ( $9.02 USD )
Player6 posts small blind [$0.02 USD].
Player7 posts big blind [$0.05 USD].

Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players

SB: $5 (100 bb)
BB: $5 (100 bb)
UTG+2: $9.96 (199.2 bb)
Hero (MP1): $9.02 (180.4 bb)
MP2: $8.66 (173.2 bb)
MP3: $5.21 (104.2 bb)
CO: $5.03 (100.6 bb)
BTN: $5.95 (119 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A♠: J♦:
UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, MP2 calls $0.15, MP3 calls $0.15, 4 folds

Flop: ($0.52) 6♣: 5♣: J♥: (3 players)
Hero bets $0.35, MP2 calls $0.35, MP3 folds

Turn: ($1.22) 9♥: (2 players)
Hero bets $0.81, MP2 calls $0.81

River: ($2.84) K♠: (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $0.90,

Spoiler

Hero folds

Spoiler

Results: $2.84 pot ($0.12 rake)
Final Board: 6♣: 5♣: J♥: 9♥: K♠:
Hero mucked A♠: J♦: and lost (-$1.31 net)
MP2 mucked and won $2.72 ($1.41 net)


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7 replies
romanista06
Joined: 03.10.2014

OTT, I preffer bet 1/2pot.
You need to win just 20% to be lucrative, and villain has a lot of missed FD.


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ToddBrunson
Joined: 23.05.2010

Only beat the busted flush draw so do you think only bet 1/3 busted draw, if i have over pairs, top pairs, two pairs i easy call here. I think most of time villain have top pair or better here.


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romanista06
Joined: 03.10.2014

You made 2 significan bets, with a double FD, I don't see villain playing this way with trips OTT. I don't have equilab now to study better, but, OTR, I put a QcTc, J9, JK AcKc and KcQc that villain is winning, there are JT, JQ, FDs and, maybe, Ah6h, Ah5h that you are winning and AJ to split. So I think call it's lucrative.


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WaterDragon26
Joined: 30.06.2019

This is what I think:

hole cards that beat you that villain could have bet with:
87 = 16 combinations
KJ = 6 combinations
66 = 3 combinations
55 = 3 combinations
QT (clubs) = 1 combination
J9 (clubs) = 1 combination
total = 30 combinations

hole cards that you beat that villain could have bet with:
A2 to AT (clubs) = 7 combinations
Q9 (clubs), T8 to T9 (clubs), 97 to 98 (clubs) = 5 combinations
total = 12 combinations (almost 30%)

The bet was less than 20% of what the total pot would have been if you had called... So, in my opinion, you should have called unless I'm way too optimistic with my range.


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semiramiRNMD
Joined: 25.10.2009

His river bet does not make much sense. He is representing KJ, that's the only hand that is possible and that beats you, so he has KJ and busted draws, no way I am folding for such a small bet. And yes some players can be expolited with small bets, just like you they think that a small bet is 100% for value. The rest of the hand: I don't like the turn bet. You don't have 3 streets of value, and you'll be in difficult situation OTR. The flop bet is OKI, but I would check OTT to make my life easier, yes the board is wet, but I don't have much to protect.


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zetozinho
Joined: 18.06.2017

Flop should be a check most of the time with this combo. Bet more often with the J♣: and bet smaller.
As played, turn is a most check and semiramiRNMD has explained why.
As played, you should check/call the river not holding any flushdraw blocker against that size.


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ToddBrunson
Joined: 23.05.2010

MWP so i don't like a check because this board have flush draw and straight draw too. And turn will go clubs or 9, 4, 2, 7, 8 (gutshot) and i beted and villain raise i don't know where i am this pot. Because lot of strong draw can raise the turn after i check the flop. SDK1987 if you have time please write you bet the flop or not.

Thank you all the comment!


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