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Nut FD on paired board vs 61/8

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MrBalzter
Joined: 28.10.2018

PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: $20.48
BB: $25.69
UTG: $32.51
Hero (MP): $25.00
CO: $27.62
BTN: $26.33

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has A♣ 8♣

fold, Hero raises to $0.75, fold, BTN calls $0.75, fold, fold

Flop: ($1.85, 2 players) 2♠ 2♣ Q♣
Hero bets $1.42, BTN calls $1.42

Turn: ($4.69, 2 players) 8♥
Hero bets $2.24, BTN calls $2.24

River: ($9.17, 2 players) J♥
Hero checks, BTN bets $4.38, fold

Spoiler

BTN wins $8.76
Rake paid $0.41

Flop
- I often XR Nut Flush Draws OOP on the flop, with the board being paired and villains Bet vs missed Cbet stat at 19% I decide to bet. His fold to cbet IP is 40% AND CC in CO vs EP is 64% with a 3% 3bet.
- I figure I have enough fold equity to bet and my hand benefits from growing the pot if he does call and I pickup equity. His raise vs Cbet is 5% so if he does raise this flop I think would have to fold.

Question 1- Preferred line, a) Check Call.
b) Check Raise.
c) Cbet Fold.
d) Cbet Call.

Turn
- I pick up some Showdown Value on the turn and consider check calling. But with the Nut Flush Draw (excluding his slow played Full House's or Quads) I decide my hand is strong enough to bet again.
- Villain calls Turn Cbets IP 53% and raise 12% His Bet vs Missed Cbet is 37%
- If villain does raise I would fold.

Question 2- Preferred Line a) Check Call
b) Cbet Call
c) Cbet Fold
d) Check Raise

River- I decide to try and Showdown my had. Normally OOP I under bet weak made hands but villain seems passive enough that I decide to check. When he bets I fold. I think I am blocking Flush Draw hands he would have been calling with and his bet looks like it is for value. With a Qx, or medium pair.

Question 3- Preferred Line a) Cbet River, size?
b) Check call
c) Check Fold
d) Check Raise?


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6 replies
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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

I would most of the time Cbet out of position as well on a dry board with the flush draw. Turn I would check/call with some showdown value and on this blank I doubt he will fold to many hands he would call the flop with. River seems standard to check/fold. Especially if you think he isn't folding much and I doubt he will bluff to often to make a call profitable.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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zetozinho
Joined: 18.06.2017

Cbetting is ok, although not mandatory. Size is too big for sure on that board.
With your flop size you can basically forget about his light floats (unless he's a fish). I prefer betting again. You put pressure on weak Qx, JJ-99, draws. If they fold it's great. If they raise you have to fold.
I don't see anyone bluffing OTR properly with your line, so check/fold.


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Casey55
Joined: 19.07.2010

"- I figure I have enough fold equity to bet and my hand benefits from growing the pot if he does call and I pickup equity. His raise vs Cbet is 5% so if he does raise this flop I think would have to fold"

why does your hand benefit from growing the pot ? everybody's hand benefits from growing the pot when they hit . what about when you grow it and miss?Do you think you have fold Equity? are you prepared to run multi-street bluffs? the flop bet too big imo when he calls flop its concerning after you show his 40% c-bet fold as-well. On the turn what is your actual reason for betting ? if your going to bet turn I think you have to follow through on the river, otherwise I would have checked looking to call or fold depending on what happens. If you don't think you have fold equity just check , keep pot small and look to see a river, no sense in blasting it on a guy who cant let go of top pair and its hard to imagine your getting called by much worse.


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Casey55
Joined: 19.07.2010

Originally posted by zetozinho
Cbetting is ok, although not mandatory. Size is too big for sure on that board.
With your flop size you can basically forget about his light floats (unless he's a fish). I prefer betting again. You put pressure on weak Qx, JJ-99, draws. If they fold it's great. If they raise you have to fold.
I don't see anyone bluffing OTR properly with your line, so check/fold.

what draws are calling that flop in villains range? we block clubs and its Q22, ? villain folds 40% to c-bet and calls a 2/3 pot flop. I don't think he would show up on the turn with a hand like JTs,T9s, that he calls the flop bet with.


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wittsy171
Joined: 20.08.2011

If the guy doesn't have a fold button I would have kept the pot small even with the nut flush draw and the over card,it doesn't make any sense to bet big and i think size down to 50% pot. If you did make the flush on the river and overbet i expect this person to call you do with any Qx so you wont lose value. I think that's what your concerned about with your larger bet size...if you hit the flush you will lose all action.

Flop I would bet 50% pot, fold to a raise unless its a min
Turn - check raise because your equity increased, if he calls you know he probably has Q6o and is married to it
River - x Fold


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I like SDK's analysis i think with the showdown value check/calling the turn is good


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