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Do I have to call this river x/raise?

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Gianzzurri99
Joined: 13.02.2019

Hand from Ignition 5NL,6max

Can I ever get away here? I just feel like villain always has AQ or a set of jacks but not sure if I am good enough to fold here. Seems like a strange line for a bluff, villain would have to x back turn with spades or clubs and then x/raise river which seems really unlikely.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem $0.05(BB)
SB ($4.78) [VPIP: 29.4% | PFR: 11.8% | AGG: 10% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 33.3% | 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 17]
BB ($3.62) [VPIP: 30.7% | PFR: 20.5% | AGG: 28.9% | Flop Agg: 29.4% | Turn Agg: 30.8% | River Agg: 25% | 3-Bet: 3.3% | 4-Bet: 20% | Hands: 89]
HERO ($6.39) [VPIP: 25.8% | PFR: 16% | AGG: 28.5% | Flop Agg: 30.4% | Turn Agg: 29.9% | River Agg: 22.1% | 3-Bet: 8.9% | 4-Bet: 10.7% | Hands: 26795]
HJ ($4.93) [VPIP: 21.6% | PFR: 19.6% | AGG: 33.3% | Flop Agg: 35.7% | Turn Agg: 37.5% | River Agg: 25% | 3-Bet: 5.7% | 4-Bet: 50% | Hands: 103]
CO ($13.87) [VPIP: 18.9% | PFR: 8.9% | AGG: 25% | Flop Agg: 25% | Turn Agg: 16.7% | River Agg: 33.3% | 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 50% | Hands: 93]
BTN ($7) [VPIP: 28.1% | PFR: 25.1% | AGG: 47.1% | Flop Agg: 54.8% | Turn Agg: 36.4% | River Agg: 46.7% | 3-Bet: 7.4% | Fold to 3-Bet: 75% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 168]

Dealt to Hero: 3♣ 3♦

HERO Raises To $0.15, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $0.45, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls $0.30

Hero SPR on Flop: [6.12 effective]
Flop ($0.97): K♠ 3♠ T♣
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $0.47 (Rem. Stack: 6.08), HERO Calls $0.47 (Rem. Stack: 5.47)

Turn ($1.91): K♠ 3♠ T♣ 6♣
HERO Checks, BTN Checks

River ($1.91): K♠ 3♠ T♣ 6♣ J♦
HERO Bets $2 (Rem. Stack: 3.47), BTN Raises To $6.08 (allin), HERO Calls $3.47 (allin)

Spoiler

BTN shows: Q♦ A♦

BTN wins: $12.21


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7 replies
Tyrion88
Joined: 21.06.2007

I would not call small pockets for set value preflop. Stats also don't show us a villain who is overly nitty (we could call due to implied odds) or who is super maniac.

As played I can totaly understand not to raise the flop to keep his range wide. But since you called for set value you need to trust on that he will call a raise with AK, AA, maybe KQ. And I think these are the hands you are targeting. I would have raised the flop.

If raised the flop, turn is an ease bet.

As played I think it is a fold on the river. But I would have never been able to do so at the table.


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Dr1fter808
Joined: 11.10.2017

I don't know what's going on at Ignition nowadays but 33 is a fold on UTG pre at PS.

I open from 66 but not even always.

As played, it's just a cooler. I would never fold anywhere.


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Since the stacks are fairly deep, and the pre-flop 3Bet is small, you need to put in only $0.30 to win $6.00 which satisfies the call-20 rule-of-thumb.

OTF, when you hit, you can't be passive and allow any straight and flush draws free cards.
Note that your plan was to get it in by the river.
Start on the flop -- if you get folds fine.
If he calls with the worst odds, fine -- more money for you.
If he hits by the river -- and he will a certain percentage of the time -- just move on.

You are better than 5:1 favourite on the flop:

Board: K♠3♠T♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    86.26%  86.26%   0.00% { 3d3c }
BU     13.74%  13.74%   0.00% { AdQd }

Get some money for that equity!
approx 1 out of 6 times you will lose, but if you are getting paid off have of the other 5 you will make money long term.

Edit: yeah, I know I picked a hand, not a range, but even if we weight it heavily toward flush and straight draws, your made set is still ahead


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KapitanKirk
Joined: 07.03.2012

River is sick. I dont know what shove on R and check on T, AQ, JJ, maybe some missed FDs, but i dont know. Villian look active. We have good odds ....call is standard...... sometimes shows AK fastplay on R..... or some weird hand. Proflop is fold small pps. Flop is x/r with set. :f_mad:


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CharlotteD
Joined: 04.02.2013

Originally posted by Tyrion88
I would not call small pockets for set value preflop. Stats also don't show us a villain who is overly nitty (we could call due to implied odds) or who is super maniac.

As played I can totaly understand not to raise the flop to keep his range wide. But since you called for set value you need to trust on that he will call a raise with AK, AA, maybe KQ. And I think these are the hands you are targeting. I would have raised the flop.

If raised the flop, turn is an ease bet.

As played I think it is a fold on the river. But I would have never been able to do so at the table.

I agree, you cannot call the reraise profitably pre out of position, in position I think you could call with these stack sizes.
On this flop indeed you just have to raise. If villain has AA, AK, Axs, maybe even some other hands he decides to try to bluff you with, he will be more happy to put it in on the flop than on the turn or river (unless he hit a draw before you start betting, which is obviously not what you want). If he has a hand like QQ, JJ you will probably not get it in anyhow, so it makes no sense slowplaying your hand here. People don't like to fold a good hand at these stakes, so you will get called by a lot of hands you beat. People also love chasing draws, so probably any A♠::spade: will call of push for example. You really need to make them pay for chasing draws to maximize your winnings.
As played the river is a fold, but it's hard to fold it ingame. :f_biggrin: You really only have a bluffcatcher vs a river shove, I can't see which two pair hands he could play this way. If you bet this river, I think you have to make it like 1/2 pot to make him call with some bluffcatchers.


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Gianzzurri99
Joined: 13.02.2019

Thanks for the feedback everyone, I should have definitely x/raised the flop. My thinking was that the villain had been fairly aggressive and so I wanted to give him some rope to barrel off but raising is just a better play in the long run.


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