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All-In Insurance

 
Natural8
Last Post by Kyyberi 6 years ago
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nsavov
nsavov
Joined: 24.09.2010
Posts: 1,326
04.11.2020, 13:18

It could be relevant, idk...

Spoiler

On the AA hand, do you remember exactly what was the price of the insurance on the Flop and Turn? From what you said, I am assuming that the flop insurance was $1, but what was the turn re-insurance? That payout of $1.01 seems really low, unless the turn re-insurance was something low like $0.20.

On the QJs hand, what was the payout if you lost? I am assuming you insured for $1...

It's really tough to calculate Flop stack-offs but Turns are quite easy. :f_thumbsup:
Edit:
Ah, I see.
You paid $1 to win $2 if you lose the QJ hand...

Insurance EV:
72.73% x ($120.95 - $1) + 27.27% x ($0 + $2)
= 87.239635 + 0.5454 =
$87.785035

No Insurance EV:
72.73% x ($120.95) =
$87.966935

Seems like you paid $0.18 in equity


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Kyyberi
Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010
Posts: 11,655
05.11.2020, 14:16

I don't know for Holdem, but for PLO it's straight scam and robbery. I have seen a situation where opponent is the favorite, and takes insurance on turn and river. And the cost is the amount he would win from the hand. Reason is that the fee is not based on equity, but the number of opponent's outs. And it's paid for both turn and river, and the numbers they use aren't even close to the equities.

I made the calculation to somewhere, just can't remember where. But it's not even close at the moment.

edit. Number are close, if it would be from turn to river, and you pay thee fee only when you win the hand. I am not sure but I think you pay it also if you lose (and collect the insured amount), which is just wrong. And you can't make one insurance on the flop for turn and river, you have to insure both of them which is just wrong too.

Lets say I have a set, and opponent has a draw. If I insure the flop, it's based for opponents out for the turn. If he hits, I collect the amount and have no chance to make a full house/quads for the river. Therefore the numbers are far from my true equity on the flop.

edit edit. The fee is relevant, as your insured payout is based on the fee. More you pay, more you might get.


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nsavov
nsavov
Joined: 24.09.2010
Posts: 1,326
05.11.2020, 15:41

You don't pay when you lose.
The turn re-insurance is not paying extra on top of the flop insurance, it replaces it.

But I didn't know about the flop insurance? Is it really how you describe it?
If you stackoff with a set, the guy turns a flush and you river a boat, you don't win the pot?!?!?!

Regardless, whether it's a total rip-off or just a small -EV, It is not worth it, even for the 3 points in the race!


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Kyyberi
Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010
Posts: 11,655
05.11.2020, 18:20

For points, take the minimum. Dont lose, dont win.


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:heart::heart::heart:Probably the best plog in the world :heart::heart::heart:

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Kyyberi
Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010
Posts: 11,655
06.11.2020, 15:33

Minimun costs 1c probably. If you are happy to pay that to get points, then do it.


:spade::spade::spade:Private coaching for micro-PLO :spade::spade::spade:
:heart::heart::heart:Probably the best plog in the world :heart::heart::heart:

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